I-Monmouth Prez Poll: UKasich ubetha uClinton, oBest Trump kunye no-Cruz

UHillary Clinton ukhokela bobabini uDonald Trump kunye noTed Cruz kukhetho lonyulo oluqhelekileyo, kodwa okwangoku nguJohn Kasich. Kusesekuseni, kodwa kutshanje IYunivesithi yaseMonmouth Poll iqinisekisa olunye uvoto lwamva nje olucebisa ukuba uninzi lwabonyuliweyo ngabona bantu bangathandwayo phakathi kwabavoti baseMelika. Okwangoku, akucaci ukuba umntu ophumeleleyo onokulushukumisa njani ugqatso.

Njengoko imijikelezo yonyulo jikelele iqala ukubonakala, umgqatswa ophambili weRiphabhlikhi ubonakala ekwimeko embi ngokuchasene ne-Democrat ekhokelayo. Kumdyarho wentloko wentloko, uClinton unamanqaku angama-10 akhokelayo- ama-48% ukuya kuma-38% kuTrump. Ngelixa uClinton efumana inkxaso ye-89% yee-Democrats ezichazayo-inqanaba lokuxhasa ngokwenyani kweli nqanaba lomdyarho-UTrump angabanga inkxaso ye-73% yamaRiphabhlikhi. Ukusebenza ngokuthanda kukaTrump kukuba abantu abazimeleyo bahlulelane ngoku - ama-40% bayamxhasa kwaye ama-39% axhasa uClinton.

Olu luhlanga lwabantu babini luqine ngokufanelekileyo kwiindawo ezibaluleke kakhulu. UClinton ubambe umda omncinci we-46% ukuya kwi-41% kumda weshumi apho umda wokuphumelela kunyulo luka-2012 lwalungaphantsi kweepesenti ze-7. Ngokuqinisekileyo uClinton wenza ngcono kumazwe angqiyame. Unama-49% ukuya kuma-36% kwiTrump kwizizwe ezilishumi apho umda woloyiso wawuphakathi kwamanqaku ayi-7 ne-12 eepesenti kwaye oko kwakusiya kuRomney ngo-2012. Trump) kunokuba iTrump yenze ngokuqinileyo kubomvu (ama-48% ukuya kuma-38% kuClinton).

Ukujonga ezi ziphumo ngenkxaso yomgqatswa kwinkqubo yokutyumba eqhubekayo kubonisa ukuba ayingabo bonke abavoti ababandakanyekayo abakulungeleyo ukubuyela emva kwabaphambili, nangona oku kubonakala ngakumbi kwicala leRiphabhlikhi. Phakathi kwamaDemokhrasi axhasa uBernie Sanders ekutyunjweni kweqela labo, iipesenti ezingama-78 bathi bazokuvotela uClinton phezu kukaTrump ngoNovemba, ngelixa i-12% ngenene iya kuvotela uTrump ize i-7% ingavoti kwaphela. Kukhuphiswano lweRiphabhlikhi, isibini kwisithathu (68%) sabavoti ababuyisela uTed Cruz kulonyulo lwe-GOP bathi bazokuvotela uTrump ngo-Novemba, ngelixa i-13% ivotele uClinton kunye ne-10% bengavoti. Phakathi kwamaRiphabhlikhi abuyisa uJohn Kasich, ngama-50% kuphela aya kuvotela uTrump aze ama-19% avotele uClinton, nge-22% besithi bazokuhlala unyulo jikelele.

Kuphela yi-40% yabavoti ababhalisiweyo abanoluvo oluqinisekileyo lukaClinton ngelixa i-51% inembono engathandekiyo. Ezi ziphumo bezizinzile ngokufanelekileyo, nangona i-Clinton's negative rating iphakame kancinci kune-44% engathandekiyo ebenayo ngoJuni ka-2015. UTrump uhamba kakubi, nge-30% evunyiweyo kunye nama-60% angathandekiyo. Inqanaba lakhe elifanelekileyo lihambelana nalapho bekukhethwe khona eMonmouth emva kokuba ebhengeze ukubaleka kwakhe njengoMongameli. Nangona kunjalo, amanqaku akhe amabi anyukile ukusuka kwi-54% ngo-Agasti kunye ne-50% ngo-Okthobha. Ngokubalulekileyo, ngaphezulu kwesinye kwisithathu sabavoti beRiphabhlikhi (iipesenti ezingama-37) okwangoku babambe umbono ongathandekiyo kaTrump.

Ezi ziphumo zimele imeko yonyulo ngaphambi kokuba kuqaliswe iphulo lonyulo jikelele. Oku kuguquka ngokuqinisekileyo kuya kutshintsha, kodwa kuyaxela ukuba abagqatswa abakhokelayo bobabini baphuma ebhokisini ngabavoti bebambe izimvo ezimbi ngabo, utshilo uPatrick Murray, umlawuli weziko elizimeleyo laseMonmouth University Polling Institute. Ukulinganiswa komntu kuyeyona nto ibaluleke kakhulu ekufumaneni iziphumo. Bobabini uClinton noTrump babone amanqaku abo aqinisekileyo ebambe iinyanga ezimbalwa ezidlulileyo ngelixa ukonyuka kwabo kuye kwanda. Isilinganiselo sikaTrump siye saguquguquka kwaye kuya kuba bubulumko ukukhumbula ukuba abavoti baseRiphabhlikhi benze i-180 degree flip ekubeni neembono ezimbi emva kokumilisela iphulo lakhe. Ngaba angarhola into efanayo phakathi kwabo bonke abavoti ukuba ufumana ulonyulo?

Ngelixa bobabini abagqatswa abakhokelayo bengathandwa, uClinton ubonwa njengonobongameli ngakumbi kuneTrump. Ngokukodwa, iipesenti ezingama-54 zabavoti bathi umphambili weDemokhrasi unesimo esifanelekileyo sokuba ngumongameli, kodwa ngama-27% kuphela athetha okufanayo malunga nomanduleli weRiphabhlikhi. Ngelixa i-87% yabavoti abaza kuthi ngoku baxhase uClinton ngaphezulu kukaTrump kunyulo jikelele bayavuma ukuba unesimo sengqondo esifanelekileyo, ngama-59% kuphela abantu abanokuba ngabavoti bakaTrump abaziva ngathi abagqatswa abakhethwayo banesimo esifanelekileyo somsebenzi.

Inkqubo ye- IYunivesithi yaseMonmouth Poll kuvavanye nabanye abatyunjiweyo be-GOP ngokuchasene noClinton. Ubambe amanqaku amancinci angama-5 ngaphezulu kwe-Cruz-45% ukuya kwi-40%. Iziphumo kumazwe e-swing (44% Clinton kunye ne-42% Cruz) kunye namazwe athembekileyo (49% Clinton kunye ne-36% Cruz) ayafana nokhuphiswano lukaClinton-Trump. Nangona kunjalo, uCruz wenza ngcono kunokuba uTrump esenza ngokuqinileyo ebomvu-iipesenti ezingama-55 ukuya kuma-31% kuClinton.

UKasich kwelinye icala ubambe umda wamanqaku ama-6 ngaphezulu kukaClinton kule nto yokujonga ubuso ngoNovemba. Ukhokela amazwe e-swing (46% ukuya kwi-41%), amazwe athembekileyo (47% ukuya kuma-36%), kunye namazwe abomvu (59% ukuya kuma-26%). UKasich unezona zinga ziphakamileyo zokufumana amanqaku kunye nezona ziphumo zisezantsi zomgqatswa weqela oshiye ebaleni, kodwa unelona nani liphezulu labavoti abasenalo uluvo ngaye. Ngokukodwa i-50% yabavoti banoluvo oluqinisekileyo lukaKasich kwaye i-18% ibambe uluvo olungathandekiyo, ngelixa isinye kwisithathu (i-32%) singenalo uluvo ngaye. UKasich kuphela komgqatswa ofumana inqanaba lokufumana okuhle kubavoti beqela eliphikisayo; I-39% yeedemokhrasi zinembono entle ngaye kwaye i-20% inembono engathandekiyo.

UKasich ubonakala ekumgangatho ofanelekileyo wokuthatha uClinton, kodwa inyani yokuba ayisosilivere engenanto kwisinye kwisithathu sabavoti kuthetha ukuba uluvo lunokujika nangayiphi na indlela ukuba angangumgqatswa, utshilo uMurray.

I-Cruz ine-net engama-37% ethandekayo ukuya kuma-43% okungalinganiyo phakathi kwabavoti baseMelika. Omnye umgqatswa weqela eliphambili, uBernie Sanders, nguye yedwa ngaphandle kweKasich enenqanaba lokufumana amanqaku angama-48% alungileyo kwaye ama-37% angathandekiyo.

UMonmouth uphinde wavavanya ugqatso lweendlela ezintathu ezinokubandakanya uClinton, uTrump, kunye nowayesakuba yirhuluneli ye-GOP, ngoku eyiLibertarian, uGary Johnson. Kolu khuphiswano lokucinga, uClinton ufumana i-42% yevoti-phantsi amanqaku ama-6 kukhuphiswano lwabantu-kwaye iTrump ifumana i-34% -wehle amanqaku ama-4 kugqatso lwabantu ababini. UJohnson uthatha i-11%. Kolu khuphiswano, uClinton ugcina imeko yakhe ye-swing ekhokelayo-i-44% ukuya kwi-37% yeTrump kunye ne-9% kaJohnson- ngelixa imeko yakhe ethembakeleyo ikhokelela kwi-43% ukuya kwi-34% yeTrump kunye ne-9% kaJohnson. UJohnson ufumana esona sabelo siphezulu sevoti- iipesenti ezili-15 kumazwe abomvu. UJohnson ubukhulu becala yinto engaziwayo. Yi-9% kuphela enoluvo oluhle ngaye kwaye i-15% inoluvo olungathandekiyo, ngelixa u-3-in-4 (76%) engazi ngokwaneleyo ngaye ukuba enze uluvo.

Iphulo elinamandla lomntu wesithathu yinto enokwenzeka kakhulu kulo nyaka, kodwa akukacaci ukuba inokuba yintoni ifuthe. Ukubandakanya igama likaJohnson kulonyulo lwethu kubonakala ngathi yindawo yokubamba indawo yabavoti abangonwabanga ngokukodwa kukhetho olukhulu lweqela ngoku, utshilo uMurray.

Inkqubo ye- IYunivesithi yaseMonmouth Poll yenziwa ngomnxeba ukusukela nge-17 ukuya kwi-20 ka-Matshi ngo-2016 nabantu abadala abayi-1,008 eMelika. Iziphumo kolu khululo zisekwe kwisampulu yabavoti ababhalisiweyo abangama-848 kwaye banemida yempazamo ye-3.4 yepesenti. Uvoto lwenziwe liziko laseMonmouth kwiPolling Institute kwiWest Long Branch