Umongameli waseRussia uVladimir Putin.UMICHAEL KLIMENTYEV / AFP / imifanekiso kaFetty Kubonakala ngathi iNtshona isiya kwisivumelwano neRussia, ke makhe sijonge ukuba iMoscow ifuna ntoni na kwaye ziyakuba yintoni iziphumo. Ukwazi umchasi wakho yeyona ndlela yokuphumelela nakuphi na ukhuphiswano.
Xa sithetha ngeRussian Federation, sithetha ulawulo lwenkululeko lukaVladimir Putin. Ukuba phantsi kolawulo lwakhe phantse iminyaka eli-17, inkululeko yokuthetha injalo imbi kakhulu kunaseZimbabwe okanye eSouth Sudan : abachasi bezopolitiko badutyulwa , iintatheli wagwintwa , imbali iyaxokwa (nkqu ngemithetho yelizwe kunye neendlela zengcinezelo ), kwaye uninzi lwamajelo eendaba aphambili ayalelwa ngokufanelekileyo ngurhulumente. UMcebisi woKhuseleko kuZwelonke ongenayo uMike Flynn wayenyanisile xa esithi , U-Putin nguzwilakhe onguzwilakhe kunye ne-thug engenamdla wethu engqondweni.
Umdla ophambili kaPutin ucacile: ufuna ukuhlala emandleni ixesha elide kangangoko kunokwenzeka. Ucinezela inkcaso yakhe yasekhaya-evela kumaqela ezopolitiko nakumajelo eendaba azimeleyo- kuba usilele ukuzisa umgangatho oqinisekileyo wokuphila kwabantu baseRussia abaqhelekileyo. I-Russia ine-GDP esezantsi kune-Itali, kunye nayo Umyinge wemivuzo ungaphantsi kuneRomania . Njengokuba imeko yezoqoqosho yaseRussia isiba mandundu, kukho uloyiko phakathi kwabaphethe izinto ezintle zokuba abemi bazakuqala ukungoneliseki ngurhulumente.
Yiyo kanye le nto uPutin ahlasela iUkraine ngokuhlasela ngokungekho mthethweni umhlaba waseUkraine eCrimea nokulwa eMpuma Ukraine. Unoloyiko lokuba iUkraine ingaqala ukwamkela imigangatho yolawulo yaseYurophu, kwaye ekugqibeleni babone izibonelelo zoqoqosho ekuguqukeni ukusuka kwinkqubo yoqoqosho lwasemva kweSoviet. I-Ukraine ephumeleleyo enolawulo oluphezulu kunye nomgangatho ophezulu wokuphila bubusuku kwiKremlin. Ukuba amaRussia aqhelekileyo abone iUkraine isenza bhetele kuneRashiya, abantu ngokubanzi banokuqala ukubuza ngemithetho yolawulo lwaseRussia, engahambisi ngokwezoqoqosho okanye kwezentlalo. Ngale nto engqondweni, iMoscow izama ukonakalisa iinzame zeUkraine zokuzijika zibe lilizwe eliyimpumelelo. Umzekelo, iRussia ikwenza oku ngokulwa (umda, kodwa kunjalo) umlo nxamnye neUkraine. Ngokucacileyo, le njongo iya kuthatha ixesha elide kwaye uninzi lwezithintelo kulindeleke.
Ulawulo olutsha lwe-U.S. Luza nembali yokwenza isivumelwano, ngokusisiseko siphikisa ukuba kufuneka simamele iimfuno zikaPutin nezindululo zakhe. Ukuba ulandela iintshukumo zaseMoscow ukusukela oko yahlala kummandla waseGeorgia ngo-2008, akukho nzima ukuqagela ukuba iRussia ifuna ntoni na.
Ekuqaleni, UPutin ufuna ukuba isohlwayo saseNtshona sisuswe ngokukhawuleza . Ezoohlwayo zabekwa eRussia emva kohlaselo olunobukrakra e-Ukraine, yiyo loo nto amagosa aseKremlin eqhayisa ngawo phantse yonke imihla. Esi sixhobo somgaqo-nkqubo wamazwe angaphandle sibonakalise isisombululo kunye nobunye baseNtshona, ke iMoscow ibona ukuba ukuba ithathe inyathelo elinye ukuya phambili, iya kohlwaywa ngakumbi. Ukuba uDonald Trump uyakwazi ukwenza uthethathethwano malunga nawo onke amajoni aseKremlin, amagosa ezobuntlola kunye nezixhobo ezivela kwiMpuma yeUkraine, kuya kubonelela ngesizathu esifanelekileyo sokususa izohlwayo ezinxulumene nokubandakanyeka kweRussia kuloo ndawo yommandla. Ingayimpumelelo ecacileyo eNtshona- kwaye nayiphi na into ngaphandle kwale iya kuba kukoyiswa kwemidla yaseMelika neyaseYurophu. Kukho ezinye izohlwayo ezinxulumene nokuthinjwa kweRussia kumhlaba waseUkraine eCrimea-nangona kunjalo, akunakulindeleka ukuba uPutin abuyele eCrimea ngoku, ngoko ezo sanctions ziya kuhlala endaweni okwexeshana. Ukuba i-US iphakamise isohlwayo sayo nayiphi na into engaphantsi kokurhoxa kweRussia kwimimandla yamanye amazwe ngoku ekuhlala kuyo ngenkani, iya kuba yintengiso yomthetho osekwe kumgaqo wamazwe aphesheya.
Isibini, EMoscow phantse ibiza isivumelwano esitsha seYalta. Ifuna ukuba nendawo yayo yempembelelo iqinisekiswe kwaye yamkelwe. Oku kuthetha ukuba amazwe akhethiweyo ebumelwaneni base-Russia-ikakhulu i-Ukraine-azokwaliwa ukuba zizizwe ezizimeleyo. Baza kwalelwa ithuba lokujoyina i-EU okanye i-NATO kwixa elizayo kwaye abemi babo ngekhe bavunyelwe ukuba bakhethe into abafuna ukuyenza nelizwe labo. Ngokwam ndivela kwilizwe elabona amagunya amakhulu ebuyela emva kwesiVumelwano saseMunich sowe-1938 sokunyanzela iCzechoslovakia ukuba inikezele ngomhlaba wayo. Yile nto inokuthi ithathe indawo entsha yempembelelo kwiindawo ezithile zeMpuma Yurophu. I-Russia ayinalungelo lokuthatha isigqibo kumazwe angaphandle malunga nento abafuna ukuyenza ngekamva labo. Ukuba nayiphi na inkokeli yaseNtshona inqwenela ukunika ngokusemthethweni iMoscow loo mandla phezu kwabamelwane bayo, ayikho enye into ngaphandle kokubhengeza. Sonke siyayazi into eyenzekileyo emva kokuba amahlakani aseNtshona enike uzwilakhe onguzwilakhe yonke into awayeyifuna ngelo xesha. Ayizukuphulukana nokuziphatha okuhle kuphela, kodwa, inyani, iya kuba sisimemo esivulekileyo sobundlongondlongo obungaphezulu baseRussia. Awunako ukucima umlilo ngeoli.
Isithathu, i I-Kremlin ifuna ukuba iNtshona iyeke ukuxhasa uluntu lwentando yesininzi kwingingqi ye-Eurasian . Isigqeba esilawulayo saseMoscow sikubona njengesisongelo ngqo kubukho baso kuba bayazi ukuba abemi abawaziyo amalungelo abo kwaye aboyiki ukujongana nabaphetheyo kwezopolitiko ngaboyikiso olukhulu kulawulo olunamandla. Kungenxa yoko le nto iintatheli, iinkokheli zenkcaso, amatsha ntliziyo kunye nenkululeko yokuthetha ngokubanzi becinezelwe eRashiya. Ukuba iNtshona yamkele ukuyeka inkxaso yayo kubemi abaxhasa idemokhrasi naphina kwi-Eurasia, iya kuba lolunye uhlobo lwesibheno ngaphezulu kolawulo lukarhulumente. Ngokucacileyo, akukho mntu ubiza ubhukuqo-mbuso olwenziwe yiNtshona, kodwa kungokwemvelo ukuba inkululeko yedemokhrasi ixhase ngobunono nabani na ocinezelweyo kulo mmandla.
Isine, UPutin ufuna ukubonwa njengomntu wembali obuyisele uzuko lwaseRashiya ekuthiwa lufanele uzuko. Akukho mntu unokuphikisana nale nto ukuba oko kuthetha ukwenza ilizwe libe yindawo ekhulayo kwezoqoqosho enemithetho eqinileyo yedemokhrasi ethotyelwayo. Le yinto uPutin awayenokuzama ukuyizisa kwilizwe lakhe malunga neminyaka engama-20 yokulawula, kodwa akenzanga njalo. Ngelishwa eMoscow, oko kuthetha ukuba umhlaba kufuneka woyike iRussia-yiyo loo nto i-Kremlin ikholelwa ukuba intlonipho. Simane sikumdlalo we-zero-sum. Ukuba iRussia ixhaphaza amazwe eMpuma Yurophu, ayifumani ubuhlobo okanye uthando, kodwa ukuxhathisa nokudelela.
Ukuba iNtshona ifuna ukwanelisa iimfuno zikaPutin, ayinakwenza oko ngaphandle kokunikezela ngezinto esizithandayo: ulawulo lukarhulumente, ilungelo lalo naliphi na ilizwe lokukhetha indlela yalo ngaphandle kweminqweno yommelwane wayo omkhulu, kunye nenkululeko yokuthetha. Ezo zizinto ezenze iMelika ukuba ibe nkulu, kwaye awungekhe uyenze ibe nkulu kwakhona ukuba unikezela ngamaxabiso alilitye lembombo kwihlabathi langoku laseNtshona. Kungenxa yokuba, ewe, izinto zinokuya zisiba mbi, njengoko zenzayo emva kowe-1938 xa iinkokheli zaseNtshona zenza izigqibo ezimbi kakhulu.
UJakub Janda uyiNtloko yeNkqubo yokuBukela i-Kremlin kunye no-Sekela Mlawuli kwii-European Value Think-Tank ezinze ePrague. Ugqwesa ngokukhethekileyo ekuphenduleni ilizwe lentando yesininzi kulwazi oluchasayo kunye nefuthe lokusebenza. Kwi-2016, wayejongwe ngumsebenzi wezokhuseleko waseCzech kunye namaziko ezobuntlola ukuba abonisane nefuthe lamaGunya angaphandle isahluko kuPhicotho lwezoKhuseleko kuZwelonke oluqhutywa ngurhulumente waseCzech. Mlandele kuTwitter @ _jakubjanda
