I-3 yezoHlanu zezoQoqosho eziKhulu zeHlabathi ziJongene neNgxaki yaBemi

Inani labantu abaluphala ngokukhawuleza, imveliso yokwehla kokuzalwa kunye nexesha elide lokuphila, yingxaki edida oorhulumente abaninzi, ngakumbi abo bakumazwe ahambele phambili.

Ukuba iindlela ezikhoyo zedemokhrasi ziyaqhubeka, ikamva liza kujongeka lisoyikeka: ezintathu kwezoqoqosho ezikhulu zanamhlanje (i-U.S., China, Japan, Germany kunye ne-India) ziya kuba nabantu abambalwa nge-2100 kunanamhlanje, ngokweengqikelelo zeZizwe eziManyeneyo.

(Ukusukela ngo-2017, i-U.K luluqoqosho lwesihlanu ngobukhulu emhlabeni, kodwa i-India kuqikelelwa ukugqitha e-UK. Ekupheleni kwalo nyaka.)

I-China, elona lizwe likhulu labemi ukusukela ekuqaleni kwempucuko yoluntu, kungekudala iza kuphulukana nolawulo lwayo. Kwisithuba esingaphantsi kweshumi leminyaka, i-India iya kuyigqitha i-China njengelona lizwe linabantu abaninzi ehlabathini. Ukunyuka kwabemi baseIndiya, njenge-GDP yayo, kuya kuqhubeka isithuba seminyaka emithathu ukuya kwemine, ngelixa abemi base China ngokuqinisekileyo beza kuqala ukonakala ngo-2040.

IJapan neJamani, ilizwe lesithathu nelesine kwihlabathi elihambele phambili, nabo bayasokola ekudaleni abantu abaninzi. Ngama-2100, iJapan izakuphulukana nesinye kwisithathu sabemi bayo ngoku, kwaye iJamani izakuphulukana neepesenti ezili-12.

I-China, i-Japan kunye ne-Jamani ziya kujongana nokwehla kwenani labemi kule nkulungwane iphela.USissi Cao woBukele

Onke la mazwe mathathu akhankanywe apha ngasentla aphakathi kwezinga eliphantsi kakhulu lokuzala, inani lokuzalwa komfazi ngamnye, ngokweedatha ze2016 ezivela kwiBhanki yeHlabathi.

Ukususela ngo-2016, umfazi oqhelekileyo eJapan wayenabantwana abayi-1.4 kuphela; eli nani laliyi-1.5 eJamani laze i-1,6 lase China Zonke zazingaphantsi kwenqanaba lokuchuma lokutshintsha, elona nqanaba lisezantsi lokuzalwa elifunekayo kubemi belizwe abaswelekileyo ukuba bathatyathelwe indawo ngokufanelekileyo ngabasandul 'ukuzalwa. (Umda okwangoku yi-2.1 yamazwe aphuhlileyo kwaye ususela kwi-2.5 ukuya kwi-3.3 yamazwe asaphuhlayo ngenxa yamazinga aphezulu okusweleka.)

Zombini iJapan neJamani (kunye neYurophu ngokubanzi) zijongana nomceli mngeni wabantu abancinci abangafuni bantwana. E-Japan, ngaphandle kwenani lemigaqo-nkqubo yoluntu ukusukela ngeminyaka yoo-1990 yokunciphisa iindleko zokukhathalela abantwana kunye nokuphucula imigaqo-nkqubo yekhefu labazali, izinga lokuzalwa alikaze lifike. IJamani yamkele indlela eyahlukileyo ngokuvula imida ukutsala abokufika, kodwa ukwenziwa komgaqo-nkqubo ka-Chancellor Angel Merkel yabangela ingxoxo yasesidlangalaleni eyahlukileyo .

I-U.S., Apho izinga lokuzalwa likwirekhodi esezantsi, inengxaki efanayo, kodwa ngethamsanqa ayimbi kangako. Ngapha koko, i-US kuphela kwelizwe eliphuhlileyo kuqoqosho oluphezulu lwehlabathi oluya kubona ukukhula okuzinzileyo kwabemi kule nkulungwane.

Ukunqatshwa kokuzalwa kule minyaka mibini idlulileyo eMelika ayililo inani elikhulu. Ke kunzima ngenene ukuxelela ukuba oko kuya kubachaphazela njani abantu kwixesha elizayo labasebenzi, ngakumbi kuxhomekeke kwinto eyenzekayo ekufudukeni, uDonna Strobino, unjingalwazi wabantu, usapho kunye nempilo yokuzala kwiYunivesithi yaseJohn Hopkins, uxelele uMbonisi.

UStrobino wongeze, ecaphula Uphononongo lwamva nje lweZiko loPhando lwePew , inzala esezantsi yangoku isisiphumo sabasetyhini ukulibaziseka ukuba nabantwana, kunokuba ungabi nabo kwaphela abantwana.

I-China, kwelinye icala, inemeko eyodwa kunye nexhala.

Phakathi kowe-1979 ukuya ekuqaleni kuka-2016, urhulumente waseTshayina wenza ukuba izinga lokuzalwa liphantsi kunye nomgaqo-nkqubo odumileyo wokuphikisana nomntwana omnye. Nangona benganyanzeliswanga ngokupheleleyo (abantu kwiindawo ezininzi ezisemaphandleni babenomntwana ongaphezulu komnye ngelixesha), umgaqo-nkqubo ukwazile ukuthintela izinga lokuzalwa kwelizwe amanqanaba asondele-zero iminyaka.

Iziphumo ebezingalindelekanga ezimandundu zokuba nomntwana omnye kuphela, nangona kunjalo, kukuguga okukhawulezayo xa abantwana bekhula ixesha elinye. Kwaye inkathazo enkulu kukuba, ngaphandle kokupheliswa komgaqo-nkqubo kwi-2016, inqanaba lokuzala laseChina aliphindanga laphinda labuya kwi-2017, umqondiso wokuba abantu abancinci e-China banqabile ukuba nabantwana njengoontanga babo eJapan naseYurophu.