Ngaba kumnandi ukungcakaza kwezopolitiko? Uyabheja!I-Pixabay / uJan Vasek Wonke umntu unoluvo lwezopolitiko kunye noqikelelo malunga nokuba ngubani oza kuphumelela unyulo lwe-2020. Kodwa ngaba uzimisele ukubeka imali yakho apho umlomo wakho ukhona, njengoko isitsho esidala? Ewe, ungabheja kwiziphumo zopolitiko, kwaye ishishini liye lakhula nje kule minyaka idlulileyo. Ayisiyiyo kuphela into yokungcakaza kulowo ucinga ukuba uza kuphumelela kunyulo lukamongameli, kodwa ukubheja okunjalo kungasinika nofifi lokuba ngubani onokuphumelela, ngokweenzululwazi zopolitiko.
Ngaba kusemthethweni ukubheja kwiziphumo zopolitiko?
Ukungcakaza eMelika bekuqhele ukulawulwa kakhulu. Emuva phaya kwiminyaka yoo-1980 nakwiminyaka yama-1990s, ukubheja kwezopolitiko yayiyeyona nto ikhulayo, kanye njengokuba kunjalo kwezemidlalo. Kodwa owayesakuba yinkwenkwezi ye-NBA uBill Bradley, owayesebenze kathathu njengelungu leNdlu yeeNgwevu yaseNew Jersey ukusukela ngo-1979 ukuya ku-1997, wakhokhela ityala lokunciphisa ukungcakaza. Ngena IPAPSA , Umthetho woKhuseleko lwezeMidlalo kunye neAmateur. Yayikukuvalwa kukarhulumente kwezemidlalo zongcakazo ezazinciphisa ukubheja kwezemidlalo-nakwezopolitiko. Inzame ye-bipartisan yadlulisa i-Congress elawulwa yi-Democratic kwaye yasayinwa yaba ngumthetho nguMongameli George HW Bush ngo-1992, yaqala ukusebenza ngoJanuwari ka-1993. Zine kuphela iindawo ezazingahlawulwanga: I-Oregon, iMontana, iDelaware kunye neNevada, njengoko bobane babesele benendlela ethile yokungcakaza kuRhulumente.
INew Jersey icel'umngeni kwi-PAPSA kwiinkundla, kwaye yahamba yaya kwiNkundla ePhakamileyo yase-U.S., Eyabetha umthetho yanika iNew Jersey, kunye nabangcakazi, uloyiso olukhulu. ICongress isenakho ukubandakanyeka kwikamva, amazwe asadinga ukuwisa imithetho evumela ukugembula okulawulwayo, kwaye iFederal Wire Act imi ngendlela yokubheja kwi-Intanethi, kodwa ukubeka iinqwelo kwezopolitiko kubuyile kwishishini.
Njengoko Ukubheja ngokusemthethweni kwi-Intanethi kubonisa , Isimanga sokubheja kunyulo kunye neziganeko ezinxulunyaniswa nezo politiki ezizama ukuthintela ukungcakaza azilahlekanga kubantu baseMelika.
Yikholwe okanye ungakholelwa, ezo marike zixela kwangaphambili ziphendula imibuzo ngo-ewe okanye hayi malunga nezopolitiko-njenge, Ngaba uDonald Trump uza kuphinda akhethwe kwakhona? okanye Ngaba iDemocratic Rep. UTulsi Gabbard Ukuyeka phakathi kwinyanga ezayo? —Kwavunyelwa kwaphambi kokuba iPAPSA ichithwe, njengoko abalawuli babekhetha ukungawakhathaleli la manyathelo. Ngoba? Ngolwazi oluxabisekileyo abalunikileyo, kubhala iDime yeMidlalo yokuBheja . Njengoko abathengisi bathenga kwaye bathengise izabelo zabo, abaphandi bafumana umbono ongcono kwinto yokuba ingqondo edibeneyo icinga malunga nabagqatswa kunye neziganeko ezibangqongileyo. Umbono kukuba abantu bathenga izabelo ngokusekwe kwinto abakholelwa ukuba izakwenzeka, ayisiyiyo le bafuna yenzeke. Ezi marike zibonelela ngexesha lokwenyani kumaphulo ezopolitiko, kunye nendlela iziganeko ezahlukeneyo ezibachaphazela ngayo.
Indlela ekubheja ngayo kwiibhaloti kusebenza
Ukufumana okungakumbi malunga namantongomane kunye neebhanti zokubheja kwezopolitiko, ndithethile nomlingisi uMike Pierce nge-intanethi yezemidlalo TopBet.eu . Ndaya kwindawo yabo ndaza ndabuza imibuzo malunga nendlela yokubeka i-wager kunye nokuba amanani athetha ntoni, njengoko ndingumngcakazo we-novice.
Umzekelo, indawo idwelisa uDonald Trump ngo -125. Ngaba oko kuthetha ukuba uza kuphumelela okanye alahle? Kuba uTrump uyintandokazi ye -125, kuyakufuneka uzibeke emngciphekweni weedola ezili-125 ukuze uphumelele i- $ 100 kuye ukuze abe ngumongameli kwi-2020, ucacisile uPierce.
ITopBet.eu ikwadwelisa u-200 ku-Elizabeth Warren, kodwa oko akuthethi ukuba bacinga ukuba uzokuphumelela. Ngokuchaseneyo, ukuba [ujonga] uWarren, onama-200 ukuba abe ngumongameli olandelayo, ukubheja kwe- $ 100 kuye kungaphumelela i-200 yenzuzo.
Ke baziqonda njani ezi ngxaki, ngubani ofumana thabatha (-) sign kwaye ngubani ofumana kulungile (+) sayina ecaleni kwamagama abo?
Okwangoku, siphumelela imali ukuba uTrump uphinde wanyulwa njengo-Mongameli kwaye ulahlekelwe yimali ukuba uWarren wonyulwe njengo-Mongameli wase-US, utshilo u-Pierce. Kungenxa yokuba i-37% yemali kwikamva lika-2020 lase-US lixhasa uWarren ongu-200 underdog, ngelixa i-29% yemali kwikamva ixhasa -125 iTrump eyithandayo.
Ngaba iMarike zokuBheja ziyanceda ukuQikelela ikamva?
Uncwadi oluvela kwizifundiswa ngokubheja kwezopolitiko njengombonisi luxhasa ngakumbi kunokuba ucinga. Ngenxa yokuba ithiyori elungileyo inokuchaza, ichaze kwaye iqikelele, kutheni ungavavanyi ngokuzimeleyo ngokubheja?
Uqikelelo lweemarike ngokucacileyo lwavela kwi-1988, xa iiMarket zokuqala ze-Iowa zaxela kwangaphambili ukuba ziphumelele kunyulo lukamongameli, ubhala uMichael Abramowicz kwinqaku lakhe Ipolitiki yokuQikelela ipapashwe kwi Amanyathelo amatsha: iTekhnoloji, uLawulo, uBumbano lweHlabathi , Imithombo yeendaba ye-MIT. Ukusekwa kweMakethe ye-Iowa ye-elektroniki befuna isithuthi esiza kuchaza ngcono ukusebenza kweemarike zezemali, kunye nendlela yabo eyakhelwe kwimisebenzi yezoqoqosho zovavanyo ezazenze amalinge kusetyenziswa iimarike zezemali ezilula elebhu.
Kodwa ukubheja kwezopolitiko kuya kude kubuye kwiintsuku zopolitiko lwasemva kwemfazwe. Kwi Ijenali yeeNkqubo zoQoqosho , UPaul W. Rhode noKoleman S. Strumpf bafumanise ukuba ukubheja bekusisiqalo esihle solonyulo, nangaphambi kwexesha lophononongo lwenzululwazi ukusukela ngo-1868 ukuya kowe-1940. Kodwa uhlalutyo lokubheja kwi-Democratic Party ka-2008 yabagqatswa abaphambili ngu-Emily West kwi Ijenali yezopolitiko ubonise iziphumo ezixubeneyo zokumisela unxibelelwano phakathi kwenkolelo kwimpumelelo kunye nokubheja.
Ndindwendwele YenyaniPolitiki kwaye wabona ukuba ngexa uJoe Biden ekhokela ukuvota kukazwelonke kancinci-phambili eNew Hampshire nditsho naseMassachusetts (imeko kaWarren), ethatha iNevada, ephumelela iSouth Carolina neTexas ngomgama obanzi, ephulukana no-Iowa kuphela — ulandela uWarren ekubhejeni amathuba ngamanqaku angama-33. Ndibuze uPierce ukuba inokwenzeka njani loo nto.
Siva ukuba ngelixa iBiden ingoyena mgqatswa waziwayo, kubonakala ngathi uWarren uqala ukuba ngoyena mgqatswa uthandwayo, ucacisile. Uqala ukufumana imali engakumbi yokuqokelela imali ngokuthelekiswa neBiden. Esi sisizathu esikhulu sokuba sicinge ukuba uyakuba ngumtyunjwa we-Democratic kumongameli wonyaka ozayo.
Andiqinisekanga kangako, kodwa kuyamangalisa ukuba iziphumo zokubheja zinokwahluka kakhulu kwiipoll. Siza kufumanisa unyaka ozayo ukuba ukusebenzisa intloko yakho kunye nokulandela uphando kukubheja okrelekrele, okanye ukungcakaza entliziyweni yakho kunye nokubheja kulowo ufuna ukuphumelela kunokuba sesona sicwangciso silungileyo.
Inqaku lokugqibela: Phambi kokuba ubeke idola elinye kubhejo, yenza uphando lwakho kwaye uqiniseke ukuba uphosa iqashiso lakho ngesiza esaziwayo esinerekhodi elungileyo yokuhlawula xa uphumelele.
UJohn A. Tures nguprofesa wesayensi yezopolitiko kwiKholeji yaseLaGrange eLaGrange, eGeorgia-funda ibali lakhe elipheleleyo apha.
