U-Hillary Rodham Clinton uza kuba ngumfazi wokuqala ukuphumelela u-Mongameli ngomso, ngokusoyisa u-Donald Trump ngaphandle kwenxalenye encinci ngenxa yokuvota kwe-Latino.
I-Party Crasher iqikelela ukuba uClinton uya kuphumelela kwiKholeji yoNyulo kwi-322-215, athabathe phantse onke amazwe e-swing, njengoko uMongameli u-Barack Obama wenza uloyiso ngo-2012. Iingxelo zikaTrump ezivala isikhewu esiphela zisikhumbuza ngonyulo oludlulileyo apho umda wokuvota uqinisiwe kwiintsuku zokuvala, kuphela ukubuyela umva ekugqibeleni-kubandakanya u-2012, ekwakukuko nabalandeli bemakethi yesitokhwe ababeya kuyamkela njengofileyo ikati iyaqhuma.
Iingxelo zokuqala zokuvota eFlorida naseNevada zibonisa ukuvela okumnandi kweLatino ukuza kuthi ga ngoku, kunye neQela leCrasher, ngenxa yoko, lilindele ukuba omabini la mazwe angene kwikholamu kaClinton, asike nayiphi na indlela eya kwimpumelelo kaTrump. Akukho meko yokwenyani apho uTrump anokulahla iivoti zonyulo ezingama-29 zaseFlorida kwaye ahlanganise abavoti abangama-270 abayimfuneko ukuze baphumelele kunyulo.
FUNDA NXULUMENE : UDonna Brazile Wazama ukulahlekisa i-CNN malunga ne-Al Gore ngo-2008
Ngelixa i-Political Real umndilili wokuvota eFlorida ibonisa uClinton phambili ngepesenti enye kuphela ngeCawe- ubukhulu becala ubumbano lwamanani- I-poll yeRiphabhlikhi eqhutywa yiRemington Research yayikuphela kovoto ezintlanu zokugqibela ezabonisa uTrump phambili, kunye nomda wamanqaku amane kwityala laseRemington walisusa umndilili . (Njengomgaqo, i-Party Crasher iyayityeshela nayiphi na into yokuvota eqhutywa ngabavoti bezopolitiko, ikwayala ngokungakhathali naziphi na iipolitiki ezenziwa egameni lamaDemokhrasi.) Zonke iipolitiki ezisele zibandakanyiwe kumndilili we-RCP ukusukela nge-27 ka-Okthobha zibonisa uClinton ngokukhokelela kancinci kodwa okuzinzileyo kwi-Sunshine State.
Ukongeza, uqikelelo olucatshulwe ngu IWashington Post Ngomhla kaNovemba 5 bonisa ukuba ivoti yaseLatino eFlorida inokuphakama ngaphezulu Iipesenti ezili-150 Kwangelo xesha linye ngo-2012. Kweli nqanaba, ngokusekwe kulwazi olukhoyo, lo mbhali weendaba uziva ethembeke ngokugqithisileyo ukuba uClinton uzakuyibamba iFlorida.
E-Nevada, umhlalutyi wezopolitiko okhokelayo, u-Jon Ralston, ebenika ingxelo ngeentsuku zokuvota kwi-Democratic ukuvota kwangoko ngokubanzi kunye neevoti ze-Latino ngokukodwa. Zininzi iingxelo zeendaba ezixhasa ingxelo kaRalston. Ngelixa uphononongo lwamva nje lwe-CNN lunike uTrump amanqaku amathandathu akhokelayo e-Nevada (ngokuqinisekileyo umphandle xa kuthelekiswa nolunye uphononongo lwakutsha nje), I-Party Crasher yafunda kwiminyaka eyadlulayo ukuba bangabhejeli ngokuchasene no-Ralston-phantse lilizwi elilodwa ekuchazeni i-Democratic Sen. UHarry Reid's Ukuphinda ukhethe ngo-2010-kwi-Casino State.
I-North Carolina lelinye ilizwe apho uClinton akhokele khona ukuvota kutshanje kodwa ngoku uhamba kwi-RCP avareji ngenxa yomntu omnye othengisa kakhulu (i-WRAL-TV / SurveyUSA poll ebonisa iTrump ngamanqaku asixhenxe) kunye nabapholi beRiphabhlikhi (iTrafalgar Group, iRemington) ibonisa umgqatswa weRiphabhlikhi ngaphambili. Ezi kuphela zonyulo zintathu, kwezili-10 zokugqibela kuluhlu lwe-RCP, zibonisa uTrump phambili kwilizwe laseTar Heel. Umbutho weCrasher ulindele ukuba uClinton aphumelele kancinci eNyakatho Carolina, athabathe iivoti zonyulo ezili-15 athe uMongameli uBarack Obama wasilela ukuzifumana ngo-2012.
Lo mbhali wemihlathi ulindele ukuba uClinton aphumelele ilizwe laseRust Belt apho uTrump azame khona ngenzondelelo ukwandisa imephu: IPennsylvania, iMichigan neWisconsin. UClinton ebesephambili kulonyulo lwamva nje kula mazwe mathathu kwaye kubonakala ngathi akathandabuzeki, ngaphandle kwesigqibo sikaClinton sokukhankasa kakhulu ePennsylvania naseMichigan. (Akukho namnye kula mazwe anokuvota kwangoko, ke ukuphuma ngevoti ngoSuku loNyulo kubalulekile, kwaye akukho nto ifanele ifundwe kutyelelo lwakhe kula mazwe.)
Oko akutsho ukuba iTump ayiyi kuzuza umhlaba kwiRust Belt. Iqela leCrasher liqikelela ukuba uTrump uya kuthwala ixesha elinye i-bellwether Ohio ye-18 yeevoti zonyulo. Ngaphandle kwe- Ukuhanjiswa kukaColumbus I-poll ebonisa uClinton ehamba ngokuthe ngcembe phambili, ukuvota kukaTrump kukhokelela ekukhathazeni amanani okuvota okuqala kweQela eliBlue kwiidolophu eziphambili zeDemokhrasi-ngakumbi iCleveland's Cuyahoga County-yalatha ukuphumelela kukaTrump.
Enye indawo ecacileyo yeTrump eMidwest yi-Iowa. Kubonakala kucace gca ngoku ukuba uTrump uza kufaka i-Hawkeye State, kunye nabavoti bayo abathandathu, kwikholamu yeRiphabhlikhi okwesihlandlo sesibini kuphela kunyulo lwesibhozo lokugqibela kwaye okokuqala ukusukela ngo-2004.
Kodwa lo mbhali wekholamu akaboni amanye amazwe ngaphandle kwe-Ohio ne-Iowa ebaleka ngombala oluhlaza ukuya kobomvu kolu nyulo, kwaye ukushiyeka kwabo kwi-Democratic fold kuya kulungiswa yi North Carolina iya luhlaza okwesibini kuphela ukusukela ngo-1976. UClinton uhlala phambili e-Virginia. , kwaye ngelixa iColorado ngoku ikufutshane, kubalulekile ukuba uqaphele ukuba iiDemokhrasi zihlala zigqithisile ukuvota kwabo kwimidyarho yelizwe lonke kwiCentennial State kwimijikelo emithathu yokugqibela yonyulo (2010, 2012, 2014).
Idemokhrasi inethemba lokubeka iArizona neGeorgia ekudlaleni kubonakala kungenakulindeleka ukuba kuphumelele, njengoko uTrump ebambe izikhokelo ezifanayo kuwo omabini la mazwe kutshanje. Kuya kuba yinto emangazayo ukuba naliphi na ilizwe lifake kwi-blue, kodwa uClinton akazifuni. Kwaye iqela lesithathu lomgqatswa ozimeleyo weRiphabhlikhi u-Evan McMullin, owathi kwiiveki ezimbalwa ezidlulileyo wabonakala elungele ukuthatha abanyulwa abathandathu base-Utah, kubonakala ngathi wehlile, eshiya uTrump phambili kwi-Beehive State.
Iziphumo kunye neziphelo zibandakanya iivoti ezintathu zonyulo: unyulo olunye oluza kubanjwa kwisithili saseMaine sesi-2 sase-DRM nakwisithili se-2 saseNebraska, kunye nomnyulwa ngamnye weDemokhrasi kwilizwe laseWashington osandula ukwenza iindaba ngesibhengezo sakhe esidlangalaleni ukuba akazukuyivota. kaClinton, oza kuphumelela ilizwe ngokukhuselekileyo. Ukuba lo mnyulwa wenza kakuhle kwisithembiso sakhe, kuya kunciphisa uClinton kulindeleke ukuba atsale ngokuvota. Inkqubo ye- IPortland Press-Herald , Ovoto lwasemaphandleni iMaine belulunge kakhulu kule minyaka idlulileyo, ingxelo ngo-Okthobha 30 ukuba uClinton uqhubela phambili kwisithili sasemaphandleni esakha sajongeka ngathi sinokukhokelela kwicala likaTrump. Kwaye ngelixa bekukho indlala yokuvota kwi-Omaha ese-Omaha ese-2 yeSithili, amandla kaTrump e-Iowa nase-Missouri angabonakalisi kakuhle uClinton kwisithili esinye sase-Nebraska esinike u-Obama ivoti yonyulo ngo-2008.
Lilonke, lidibanisa uloyiso lukaClinton, ekufuneka alonwabele ngelixa enako. NgamaRiphabhlikhi aqinisekile ukugcina iNdlu yabaMeli kwaye mhlawumbi kungabikho ngaphantsi kweevoti ezingama-49 kwi-Senate enamalungu ali-100, ithemba lakhe lokudlulisa nawuphi na umthetho olandelwayo alikho, kwaye iiRephabliki zeNdlu zibonakala zikulungele ukuqala uphando olutsha phambi kokuba athathe. Isifungo sobume. AmaRiphabhlikhi e-DRM aya kuncedwa kakhulu emsebenzini wabo ngu-Clinton ngokuthandwa ngokuncomekayo kuluntu. Umongameli wokuqala wase-Melika wasebhinqeni ukhwele kakhulu, kwaye ukuba amaRiphabhlikhi afumana isenzo kunye kwaye atyumbe umgqatswa wobumongameli obunokwenzeka kwi-2020, kunokuba kukukhwela okufutshane.
Qaphela: I-Party Crasher ibulela u-Allan Keiter kunye no-270ToWin.com ngokwenza imephu esetyenziswayo kule kholamu ngeli xesha lonyulo.
Ukubhengezwa: UDonald Trump ngumkhwe kaJared Kushner, umpapashi we-Braganca Media.
UCliston Brown sisigqeba sezonxibelelwano kunye nomhlalutyi wezopolitiko eSan Francisco Bay Area owayekade esebenza njengomlawuli wezonxibelelwano kummeli weDemokhrasi omde eWashington, DC Mlandele kuTwitter (@ClistonBrown) undwendwele iwebhusayithi yakhe ClistonBrown.com
