Uqikelelo lwemozulu lweentsuku ezintathu namhlanje lulungile njengosuku olunye lwe-10 kwiminyaka eyadlulayo.ANGELA WEISS / AFP / imifanekiso kaFetty Kwavela isaqhwithi sasemntla-mpuma namhlanje safika kwiiyure ezimbalwa emva kokuba silunyukisiwe.
Itekhnoloji yoqikelelo lwemozulu ihambile. Uqikelelo lweentsuku ezintathu namhlanje lulungile njengosuku olunye kwiminyaka eli-10 eyadlulayo, enkosi kumandla amakhulu ekhompyuter eekhompyuter ezinokudibanisa iitriliyoni zamanqaku edatha kwiimeko zemozulu zenze izinto ezilula.
Kwaye okwangoku, ukwalatha apho kunye nalapho kuza kubakho isitshingitshane sekhephu kusengumceli mngeni omkhulu.
Isizathu esinye esichanekileyo linani lezinto ezidlalayo.
Omnye wemiceli mngeni ukuqikelela isaqhwithi sanamhlanje empuma-mpuma luhlobo lwemvula-ngaba iya kuba yimvula okanye ikhephu okanye intwana yazo zombini? Ezi nkcukacha zomgangatho olungileyo kunokuba nzima kakhulu ukulandelela ukusuka kwiyure ukuya kwenye kuba zininzi izinto ezinokuchaphazela ezi zinto, utshilo uGreg Carbin, umphathi wezibikezelo kwiNational Weather Service, iarhente yomanyano ebonelela ngoqikelelo lwemozulu uthungelwano olukhulu lweTV kunye neminye imithombo yeendaba sifumana ulwazi ngemozulu kuyo.
Umgama phakathi kombane okhanyayo kunye ne-blizzard ungasondela kangangeemayile ezingama-30, okuthetha ukuba kunokubakho ishawa kwiSiqithi sase-State kwaye kungabikho mvula eBronx ngaxeshanye.
Okuninzizobugcisaisizathu, njengo-2016 Uqoqosho inqaku Ucacisile, kukuba iimodeli zokuxela ezingqubanayo zinokuvelisa iziphumo ezingafaniyo.
Umzekelo, ngaphambi kokuba iNkanyamba uSandy ihlasele i-East Coast ngonyaka ka-2012, uninzi lwemozulu yaseMelika yaxela kwangaphambili ukuba isaqhwithi siza kudlula kwilizwekazi kwaye siye ngakuLwandlekazi lweAtlantic, ngelixa iimodeli zaseYurophu zichonge ngokuchanekileyo umkhondo wesiphepho.
Uqikelelo lwemozulu luqala ngedatha eluhlaza echaza iimeko zemozulu eziqokelelwe yimithombo eliqela, ukusukela kwisathelayithi ukuya kwizikhululo zemozulu ezisemhlabeni. Olu lwazi, olukwimo yezigidigidi zamanqaku edatha, emva koko lwenziwa ngeemodeli ezivelisa ezona meko zemozulu kwixesha elizayo.
Njengomgaqo jikelele Okona idatha yeekhompyuter inokuqhekeka (kwaye ngokukhawuleza banokwenza njalo), iziphumo ezichanekileyo ziya kuba zichanekileyo.
Uqikelelo lwemozulu elungileyo lufuna iinxalenye ezimbini: imeko echanekileyo yomoya ojikeleze umhlaba kunye nemodeli elungileyo enesisombululo esaneleyo. Kodwa, enyanisweni, imeko echanekileyo yamacala amathathu eatmosferi inocelomngeni olukhethekileyo. Oko kudala ukungaqiniseki okwandayo njengoko ukulinganisa komoya kuguquka ngexesha, uXi Chen, umphandi kwisayensi yomoya kunye nolwandle kwiYunivesithi yasePrinceton, uxelele uMbonisi.
Ilebhu ka-Chen ivelise imodeli ebizwa ngokuba yi-FV3, enokusebenzisa amashumi amawaka eeprosesa ukuba zisebenze ngaxeshanye kwimodeli zemozulu. Imodeli yamkelwa yiNkonzo yeSizwe yeMozulu ngo-2016 njengenxalenye yokuphucula emva kokuchazwa kakubi kweNkanyamba uSandy. Imodeli entsha ngoku iyenziwa.
Imodeli ekhoyo yeNkonzo yeSizwe yeMozulu yahlula uMhlaba kwi-grid ye-13 km-nge-13 yeebhloko zeebhloko ukujonga nokwenza uqikelelo.
Nangona kunjalo, uninzi lweziganeko zemozulu ezibalulekileyo, ezinje ngemvula, ikakhulu zimiselwe ziinkqubo zelifu, ezinokuba ngamanqanaba amancinci kakhulu, utshilo u-Chen. Ke ngoko, izazinzulu zixhomekeke kubuchule obubizwa ngokuba yi 'physical parameterization' ukuqikelela ezo nkqubo, ezizisa ukungathandabuzeki. Umsebenzi wethu kukunciphisa ukungaqiniseki ngazo zombini iithiyori eziphuculweyo kwaye sinethemba lokuba ziyafumaneka ngakumbi izixhobo zekhompyuter.
Ukuphucuka kokuchaneka kwesimo sezulu bekumnandi kakhulu kumashumi eminyaka adlulileyo. Iimodeli zehlabathi zilunge kakhulu ekuboniseni imeko yemozulu ebonakalayo enokubakho kwiintsuku ezintlanu ukuya kwezi sixhenxe. Umzekelo, isaqhwithi esijongana naso namhlanje saxelwa kwiveki ephelileyo, nangona iinkcukacha zisadinga ukwenziwa, utshilo uCarbin uxelele uMbonisi.
Ixela ikamva, ngapha koko, wongeze u-Chen.
