I-China inokuba yeyona ndawo iphambili yentlekele yezoqoqosho elandelayo, utshilo uFerguson.UDewald Aukema U-Niall Ferguson, umbhali-mbali owaziwayo kwaye ebesoloko elundwendwe lweziganeko ezikumgangatho ophezulu kwihlabathi, ngomnye wabaprofeti otyholwa ngokuqikelela ngokuchanekileyo i-2008 Crisis Financial.
Emuva ngoJuni 2006, walumkisa ukuba kule minyaka mibini izayo, intlawulo yenyanga emalunga ne-600 yeebhiliyoni zeerandi zemali mboleko ethathwe ngababolekisi kwimarike ebizwa ngokuba yi-subprime… iyakonyuka ngeepesenti ezingama-50.
Iminyaka elishumi idlulile okoko umculo wema eWall Street.
Ngokukhula koqoqosho okuzinzileyo kunye nezinga lentswela-ngqesho liphantsi, nangona kunjalo, uFerguson ulumkisa ngelithi enye ingxaki yezemali isondele kunethemba abanokukholelwa ngalo.
Ixesha lasemva kwengxaki liphelile. Oko sihamba ngoku, mhlawumbi, lixesha elitsha langaphambi kwengxaki, utshilo ngexesha lodliwanondlebe lwamva nje Ingxelo yobutyebi ipapashwa rhoqo ngonyaka ziifemu zepropathi uDouglas Elliman kunye no Knight Frank.
Isizathu esinye esinomdla sokuba uqoqosho olutsha lusondele kukuba ingxaki yangaphambili iphele ngokukhawuleza okukhulu.
Ndibajongele phantsi ubuchule beebhanki ezingoovimba, ngakumbi iFederal Reserve, yokulwa into enokuba yintsokolo yokuphendula, abathe bayenza kuqala ngokusika inzala ukuya kuthi ga ngoku, emva koko babandakanyeka ekunciphiseni ubungakanani, utshilo uFerguson. Esinye seziphumo ngokuthe ngqo yayikukuba zonke iintlobo zeeasethi zemali zabuyiswa ngexabiso, kwaye asizange singene kuxinzelelo. Abantu ababambe esitokisini kunye neebond zabo, ndingasathethi ke ngezindlu zabo, benziwe ngokukhawuleza okukhulu. Kwaphantse kwafana nephupha elibi, kwaye ngoku kugqityiwe kwaye sonke sonwabile, utshilo.
Ngoku, njengenxalenye yesicwangciso sokuphuma ekunciphiseni ubungakanani, iFederal Reserve iqalile ukuqinisa imigaqo-nkqubo yezemali, ngakumbi ngokunyusa amaxabiso enzala ukuqala ngoDisemba ka-2015. iUK. , IJamani kunye nolunye uqoqosho oluphambili luthatha amanyathelo afanayo okanye sele benze njalo.
Oko kuhlala kungumqondiso wokuba iimeko ziya kuba mbalwa, utshilo uFergusson.
Umahluko ophambili, nangona kunjalo, kukuba i-China kunokwenzeka ngakumbi ukuba ibe sisiseko sesaqhwithi.
Ukukhula okuzinzileyo e-China yayisesinye isizathu sokuba singabinakho ukuphinda siqhubeke noxinzelelo olukhulu. Ukuba i-China ibingakhange ijolise kakhulu ekudalweni kwamatyala, ndicinga ukuba ngekhe sibe nexesha elinzima kwihlabathi jikelele. Yayiyiphakheji yokukhuthaza eyayisebenza, watsho uFerguson.
Ngokuvela e-China ezinye zezifo esiziqapheleyo eNtshona kwiminyaka eli-10 eyadlulayo, njengebhanki yezithunzi kunye neebhalbhu zezindlu, kufuneka uzibuze, njengoko i-IMF [yeNgxowa-mali yeMali yeHlabathi] yenze nje ngenye imini: Iibhanki ezinkulu zanele ngokwaneleyo ukuba zinemali eyaneleyo ukuba zihlangabezane nazo ukuba ngequbuliso kukho ukwehla kwintengiso yezindlu nomhlaba? Ke, i-China ngokuqinisekileyo yindawo yokubukela, uqhubeke.
Imakethi yokuthengisa izindlu nomhlaba etshisa kakhulu e-China kunye nokunyuka kwetyala kumdibaniselwano ngezoqoqosho kwihlabathi liphela.
Ukusukela ngo-2008, ipesenti yamatyala eenkampani kwi-GDP iyonke inyukile. Abahlalutyi beReuters qikelela ukuba isibini kwisithathu sababoleki ngamashishini aphantsi korhulumente wase China, uninzi lwawo olungenanzuzo (kwaye alunazo inkuthazo zokuba nenzuzo). Oko kuthetha ukuba uninzi lweenkampani ezixakeke ngokugqithisileyo ngekhe zikwazi ukulihlawula ityala.
Kwicala letyala, abanye abahlalutyi baqikelela ukuba ityala elibi liphindaphindwe kali-14 inani lemali mboleko ekumgangatho ophezulu. Ke, ukuba inqanaba lokungagqibeki libetha indawo yokuqhekeka,iya kuba yinguqulelo yokudityaniswa yaseMelika ngo-2008.
Nangona kunjalo, ngaphandle kwento yokuba amazwe athe anengxaki efanayo yamatyala onke aphela sele enengxaki yemali, ukuqikelela uqoqosho lwaseTshayina olusekwe kwintelekelelo yokuthengisa ngokukhululekileyo ngumsebenzi ongenakwenzeka koqoqosho.
Njengoko u-Ferguson ebeka, iingcali zezoqoqosho ziqikelele ukuwa kwe-9 kwezokugqibela kwezemali eTshayina.
Kuba uninzi lwababolekisi beenkampani zaseTshayina ziibhanki zikarhulumente, abanye abahlalutyi balindele ukuba urhulumente abe nolawulo olungcono kuqoqosho kwimeko kaxakeka.
Kwimeko nayiphi na into, akukho mntu uyazi ukuba ikamva liza kubonakala njani ngokuchanekileyo.
Okukhona umgaqo uphupha ukukhusela ingxaki yokugqibela eyenzekayo kwakhona, kokukhona unokuqiniseka ukuba ingxaki elandelayo iya kwahluka kakhulu, walumkisa uFerguson.
