Umgqatswa wobongameli kwi-US uSen Bernie Sanders (D-VT) uthethe ngexesha le-rally yakhe eRoger Williams Park ngo-Epreli 24, 2016 eProvidence, eRhode Island.(Ifoto: Scott Eisen / Getty Izithombe) Unyulo lukaMongameli waseMelika ludibaniso olungaqhelekanga kwezopolitiko, yeqonga kunye neMarathon. Unyulo luka-2016, olusele ngaphezulu kweenyanga ezintandathu ukuba luphele, lubonisa ukuba akunjalo. Umphambili weRiphabhlikhi, uDonald Trump, ngelixa inika umdla kwabanye abavoti kwaye yoyikisa abanye abaninzi, ayisiyonto ingonwabisiyo. Imiba ebalulekileyo enjengokungalingani kwemivuzo kunye nokufudukela kwelinye ilizwe kuye kwaxoxwa ngako ngaphezulu kwalo naliphi na ixesha kwimbali yakutshanje. Ukubuya nokubuya phakathi kwabaxhasi babaviwa ababini beDemokhrasi, ngethoni kwaye ngamanye amaxesha ulwimi, kuvusa izithuko ezikhwazwa ngabalandeli beYankees kunye neRed Sox.
Imikhankaso kaMongameli ikwayindlela yokubalisa amabali. Iphulo lika-1968 lobumongameli, umzekelo, yayiyinto, phakathi kwezinye izinto, indlela esiwaqonda ngayo ngoku amabali oqhankqalazo lwasesitalatweni ejikeleze imfazwe eVietnam, ubuhlanga obabukhokelwa nguGeorge Wallace, ukubulawa kwaboyikekayo kweminyaka elishumi kunye noloyiso lokuthula uninzi lumelwe nguRichard Nixon. Kutshanje, unyulo luka-2008 lubalise ngemizamo eqhubekayo yaseMelika yokulwa nobandlululo lwangaphambili, ukonyuka okuqhubekayo komsindo, kodwa ongenanjongo, iphiko lasekunene nokudinwa kwelizwe yiminyaka ka-Bush.
Unyulo luka-2016 luza kubalisa ibali malunga nelizwe lethu, kodwa okwangoku kunzima ukufumanisa ukuba liyintoni na eli yelenqe. Enye yezinto ezintsonkothileyo, mhlawumbi nokuba yinto exakayo, kweli xesha lonyulo kukuba ngaphandle kobuninzi bemali yokugubungela kunye nokubhabha ngokujikeleza umbono wangaphandle, umsindo wokuvota kunye neemvakalelo ezifanayo phakathi kwabantu baseMelika, kunye namandla kunye nemincili evelisiweyo. ngabagqatswa ababini, uDonald Trump kunye noBernie Sanders, abathetha ngokugqwesileyo kwinto leyo kulonyulo lwaseMelika, iziphumo zolu nyulo ziya kuthi zithethe ibali elahluke kakhulu.
Kungenzeka ukuba kwiminyaka embalwa, ibhanti eqinileyo kodwa engaphumelelanga yokunyulwa kweDemokhrasi iya kuphawula ixesha lemigaqo-nkqubo yezoqoqosho eqhubekayo engazange ibonwe e-US ukusukela kwixesha elitsha.
Kusesekuqaleni kakhulu ukuba ungathetha nantoni na malunga nokuza kwenzeka ngo-Novemba, kodwa kunye noluntu uluvo lwedatha ngokunjalo uninzi lweengcamango , kubandakanya leyo iingcali ezininzi zeRiphabhlikhi , ucebise ukuba xa unyulo sele luphumelele ophumeleleyo akazukuzonwabisa, okanye akhuthaze umntu wangaphandle, okanye umntu ophumelele ngomsindo wabavoti, kodwa umntu ongaphakathi ngaphakathi. UHillary Clinton unakho konke kodwa uphumelele ukutyunjwa kweDemokhrasi kwaye ukwimeko eyomeleleyo yokoyisa nawuphi na umchasi weRiphabhlikhi ngoNovemba.
Isixelela ntoni ke le nto malunga neMelika ngo-2016? Ingayimpazamo ukugxotha bonke abavoti abonwatyiswe ngumkhankaso wangaphandle wabangaphandle, kodwa kuya kuba yimpazamo ukugqitha ukubaluleka kweli phulo ngokungalibeki kwimeko yemikhankaso efanayo yeDemokhrasi efana naleyo kaJerry Brown ngo-1992, uHoward Dean ngo-2004 kwanakwinqanaba elithile, iphulo lika-Barack Obama eliphumelele kakhulu ngonyaka ka-2008. Unike amandla iqela labavoti abahlali baseRiphabhlikhi kwaye abangabathandiyo inkululeko yenkululeko kwezentlalo kwaye, ngokweembono zabo, ubunkokheli beqela eliphambili leDemocratic Party. Nangona kunjalo, iphulo likaTrump liqhawule ngempumelelo abo bavoti kwinkxaso yabo yexesha elide yenkqubo yoqoqosho olondolozayo eye yenza kangako iminyaka ukubanceda. 
Litshintsha ngokukhawuleza kangakanani ibali.(Ifoto: UMark Makela / imifanekiso kaFetty)
Ibali elibonakala ngathi liyavela ukuza kuthi ga ngoku kukuba iziko kwezopolitiko zaseMelika lomelele kunokuba i-optics yaphezulu ingacebisa. UHillary Clinton ukhululekile kakhulu kwibhetri yemicimbi ejikeleze amalungelo, ukunyamezelana kunye nesazisi, kodwa phantse uchaze iziko kwimiba yomgaqo-nkqubo wezoqoqosho nakwamanye amazwe. Ukuphumelela kukaClinton ngo-Novemba kwakuza kwenza amabali ngomsindo nangaphandle kwizibane ezahluke kakhulu. Nangona kunjalo, ukuba phantse nabani na ngaphandle kukaClinton uyaphumelela, loo manqaku mabali aya kuba namandla kunakuqala. Amabali amaphulo kaTrump noSanders aya kuthi ekugqibeleni asixelele malunga neMelika ngo-2016 awakacaci, kodwa zimbalwa iziphumo ezinokubakho.
Kungenzeka ukuba kwiminyaka embalwa, ibhanti eqinileyo kodwa engaphumelelanga yokunyulwa kweDemokhrasi iya kuphawula ixesha lemigaqo-nkqubo yezoqoqosho engakhange ibonwe e-US ukusukela kwixesha le-Deal New, kodwa kunokwenzeka ukuba iphulo lakhe buyela kwisakhelo esiqhelekileyo sokuba ngabokugqibela kuthotho loqhankqalazo oluphezulu lweedemokhrasi. Kwangokunjalo, uDonald Trump, nokuba akenzi njalo ukuya kwi-White House, unokuba negalelo ekwenzeni iqela lesithathu, okanye iqela eliphambili kwiqela leRiphabhlikhi elithetha ngeemfuno zabavoti abamhlophe abafumana umvuzo ophantsi andinamdla kangako kumgaqo-nkqubo wezangaphandle wamazwe aphesheya kunye norhwebo olukhululekileyo. Kwelinye icala, kwiminyaka embalwa okanye kwimijikelo embalwa yonyulo Ugqirha kaDonald Trump unokubonakala nje njengomboniso ongaqhelekanga wamampunge nokuzingca ngaphandle kwempembelelo yezopolitiko.
Ngesiqingatha sonyaka esisele kolu nyulo akukho nto iqinisekileyo. Ukuveliswa kwemidlalo yeqonga-okanye umboniso we-TV oyinyani ukuba ukhetha njalo-kusembindini wesenzo sesibini, okuninzi okunokwenzeka. Kufanelekile ukukhumbula, umzekelo, ukuba kwiinyanga ezintandathu ezidlulileyo uDonald Trump wayeqala nje ukubhengeza ukuba ulonyulo, uBernie Sanders wayesemaphethelweni eDemocratic primary kwaye uJeb Bush wayejongwa njenge-shoo-in ye-GOP ukutyunjwa.
ULincoln Mitchell ngumbhaleli wezopolitiko kwilizwe liphela kwi-Braganca. Incwadi yakhe yakutshanje Idemokhrasi yokuKhuthaza iNkululeko , yapapashwa yi-Brookings Institution Press ngo-Epreli ka-2016. Landela uLincoln kwi-Twitter @LincolnMitchell.
Ukubhengezwa: UDonald Trump nguyisezala kaJared Kushner, umpapashi we-Braganca Media.
