Kuyi-axiomatic ukuba izibonda ziphezulu kulo naluphi na unyulo lukamongameli, kodwa izibonda zahlukile kumgqatswa ngamnye. Ukuba, umzekelo, uMarco Rubio, uTed Cruz okanye uRand Paul babaleka umdyarho ophucukileyo kwaye baphulukane, banokubuyela ekubeni lilungu leNdlu yeeNgwevu balungiselele u-2020. Ukuba u-Gov.Chris Christie akaphumeleli, ayizukuba yinto enkulu kuye ubume kuba akukho mntu wayelindele ukuba aphumelele. Nokuba uDonald Trump akaphumeleli, ifuthe awalenzayo kwezopolitiko liya kuba likhulu kwaye uya kuba nezinto ezininzi anokukhetha kuzo. Kwicala leDemokhrasi, ukuba uBernie Sanders uza kufutshane, angakonwabela ukuba yinkokeli yenkqubela phambili eseleyo eMelika.
KuHillary Clinton, nangona kunjalo, izibonda ziphezulu kakhulu, ngokobuqu nangokwezopolitiko. Ukuba uyaphumelela, ayisiyi kuba nguMongameli kuphela, kodwa uya kudlala indima kwimbali njengowesifazane wokuqala ukukhokela ilizwe. Ukuba uyaphulukana, ngakumbi ukuba akaphumeleli ukuphumelela ukutyunjwa kweDemokhrasi, UNks.Clinton uyakukhunjulwa ngokuphulukana neeprimaries ezimbini apho wayethandwa kakhulu kukuphumelela. Ukuvuthela ezimbini zezona zikhokelo ziphambili kwimbali zimalunga nelifa elibi kwezopolitiko njengoko unokuba nalo kwezopolitiko.
UNks Clinton, ewe kunjalo, usenokuba ngumtyunjwa weqela lakhe. Ngapha koko, ukuba uphumelele i-Iowa, into enokwenzeka kwaye mhlawumbi inokwenzeka, unokugcina ilahleko eNew Hampshire, aphumelele la mazwe mabini alandelayo, iNevada kunye neSouth Carolina, kwaye asonge ukutyunjwa ngokukhawuleza ukusuka apho. Nangona kunjalo, ukuba uSenator Sanders ulawula ukucaphuka, isizathu iya kuba yinto elula: isiseko seDemocratic Party ngoku sele sihambile kakhulu ukuya ngasekhohlo.
UNks Clinton okwangoku uzabalaza ngokuchasene nale nyani, kodwa iyandiswa ngumbuzo wexesha, into ebaluleke kakhulu kunyulo lukamongameli. U-Barack Obama uphumelele ngo-2008 kuba ezopolitiko zawela kwisenethi ngokudibanisa ngokufanelekileyo ingxelo yomntu kunye nesibheno sangaphandle. Ngo-2008, UNks.Clinton uhlala ezama ukubonisa uMnu Obama engekakulungeli oko ukuba nguMongameli, ecebisa ukuba kufuneka alinde iminyaka embalwa ngaphambi kokufuna ubongameli. Esi simangalo sasingavisisani nabavoti. Umgqatswa u-Obama waqonda ukuba u-2008 yayingumzuzu wakhe. Ukuba wayelinde de kwaba ngu-2012 okanye ngo-2016, ngewayengomnye wenkulumbuso yenkululeko ejongwa njenge-insider yase-Washington.
Umbuzo ophakanyiswayo nguHillary Clinton, nokuba awunakwenza nto, ngowokuba ngowama-2016 ngumzuzu wakhe. Ubunzima aboyisayo umchasi oneminyaka engama-74 ubudala, uzibiza njengososhiyali, kwaye uswele ukuqonda okuqinisekileyo ngomgaqo-nkqubo wezangaphandle, ucebisa ukuba, uphumelele okanye uphulukane, ayiloxesha lakhe eli.
Esinye sezizathu zoku kukuba uNkosk. Clinton ukwimeko engazange ibonwe yokuba libhinqa lokuqala elimela uMongameli. Ngapha koko, wenza le minyaka ili-16 okoko umyeni wakhe washiya iNdlu yeWhite House. Ngelixa kucacile ukuba uNks.Clinton usebenzise elo xesha ukomeleza kakhulu i-resume yakhe, esebenza iminyaka esibhozo kwi-Senate kunye nemine njengo-Nobhala Wezwe, kuyinyani ukuba iminyaka eli-16 lixesha elide lokulinda inguqu ethe tyaba ngaphakathi Ubukhosi bezopolitiko. Eyona nto icace gca yile kukuba uNks.Clinton, 68, ngoku umdala kunabo bonke abagqatswa boMongameli, inyani isuswe nguMnumzana Sanders nokuba mdala kunaye, kodwa oku kuye kwenza ukuba kube nzima kuye ukunxibelelana nabavoti abancinci.
Eyona nto ibaluleke kakhulu, kukunxibelelana okungagungqiyo kukaNks uClinton nolawulo lomyeni wakhe ayisancedi kulonyulo lwentando yesininzi eliya lisanda ngokujonga ixesha likaClinton ngokuncomekayo kunokuba lalinjalo xa uBill Clinton wayegqibezela ixesha lakhe ngo-2000. Usapho olwalukhe lwangumbuzo kuye kwangqina, ubuncwane obungangqinelaniyo nokungangqinelaniyo ngowama-2016. amaxesha, kodwa iintsilelo zakhe zesini zibonakala zibi nangakumbi kule mihla. Ngaphaya koko, ngelixa amaDemokhrasi amadala esenokubona elinye iphulo lokumela, u-Chelsea Clinton, njengomntu ofikisayo oye eWashington nabazali bakhe e-1993 kwaye wakhula waba ngumfazi oselula okrelekrele nonomtsalane, abancinci abaDemokhrasi kunokwenzeka ukuba bambone njengo umntwana okanye ilungelo kwaye ngaphandle kwebala Uninzi lwesizukulwana sakhe.
Ngokulinda kude kube ngu-2016, uNks uClinton usenokumvumela ukuba adlule okwexeshana. Lo mzuzu, ngoncedo lokujonga ngasemva, wawunokwenzeka kakhulu ngo-2004, xa ubongameli bomyeni wakhe babusandula ukuba buchazwe ngakumbi ngoqoqosho olomeleleyo lwee-1990s, hayi ngembewu yokuwa kwezoqoqosho ngo-2008 (uninzi ngasekhohlo jonga ngoku). Ngapha koko, uNks.Clinton, ngexa wayesaziwa kakuhle kwaye eqhelekile, wayengengomntu omiselweyo njengoko enjalo namhlanje. Ukongeza, intsimi yeDemokhrasi ka-2004 yayingeyiyo eyomeleleyo kwaye yayiqulathe amadoda amhlophe kwaphela kudidi lwezopolitiko. Kwelo candelo, uNkosk.Clinton wayenokuthi aziveze njengomntu wangaphandle ngenxa yesini sakhe, into angakwazanga ukuyenza ngokuchasene noMnumzana Obama kwi-2008 okanye ukuza kuthi ga ngoku ngokuchasene noMnumzana uSanders kulo nyaka, kunye nendlalifa ye Ilifa likaClinton. Ngapha koko, kukhuphiswano olunabagqatswa abaninzi, ngekhe kuthathe lukhulu kuNks uClinton ukuba aphumelele uninzi okanye eze kwindawo yesibini kuwo onke amazwe okuqala.
UJohn Kerry, owaziwa njenge-liberal kwaye engakhuthazi inkululeko yenkululeko, engenayo charisma enyanzelekileyo kunye nebali elimnandi elihlaselwe ngokufanelekileyo ngabaxhasi baka-Mongameli Bush, wagqibela ngokuphumelela olo lonyulo kwaye waphulukana nolonyulo kancinci. Ukuba abavoti abangama-60,000 eOhio batshintshe iivoti zabo, uMnu Kerry ngewayephumelele kolo nyulo. Ewe kunjalo, akunakwenzeka ukwazi ukuba uNks.Clinton ngewayephumelele njani ngokuchasene noGeorge W Bush ukuba wayenyuliwe, kodwa kulula ukucinga ukuba angangumgqatswa onamandla kunoMnu Kerry kwaye kunokwenzeka ukuba woyise. UMnu Bush.
UNkosk. Clinton, ngenxa yokuba kwakubonakala ngathi zizizathu ezifanelekileyo ngelo xesha, akazange abaleke ngo-2004. Ngokuqinisekileyo wayecinga ukuba uzakuba namanye amathuba, kwaye eneneni, kodwa kwezopolitiko uceba amabini, okanye umjikelo omnye wobongameli ongaphambili ungabuya umva. Kwiminyaka elishumi elinambini okokoko uJohn Kerry waphulukana noGeorge W. Bush, uNkosazana Clinton wabona umbono wakhe wezopolitiko ungahambelani nesiseko seDemocratic Party, umfanekiso wakhe uba ngowomntu ongaphakathi kwezopolitiko kunye nobongameli bomyeni wakhe ojongwa ngokwahlukileyo ezininzi.
ULincoln Mitchell ngumbhaleli wezopolitiko kwilizwe liphela kwi-Braganca. Mlandele kuTwitter @Lincoln Mitchell.
