U-Neurosurgeon uBen Carson uye wangena e-Iowa kwaye ngoku ubotshelelwe noDonald Trump kwimo yokuqala yokuvota, iYunivesithi yaseMonmouth ifumene uvoto izolo.Inkqubo ye- IYunivesithi yaseMonmouth Poll mhlawumbi Iowa Republican caucusgoers bafumana uBen Carson noDonald Trump bebotshelelwe kwindawo ephezulu. Oku kuphawula ixesha lokuqala ukusukela nge-26 kaJulayi ukuba uvoto nakweyiphi na yamazwe amane okutyumba angakhange abonise uTrump ngokukhokela ngegama. Akumangalisi ukuba, xa abantu ababini abaphezulu bephikisana nale poll, uninzi lwabantu baseRiphabhlikhi yase-Iowa bakhetha umntu ngaphandle komnombo wezopolitiko. Kweli nqanaba lokuqala, nangona kunjalo, uninzi lwabavoti luthi inkxaso yabo ekugqibeleni ingaya komnye wabagqatswa abaninzi nangona bekhetha ngoku.
Xa i-Iowa Republican ibuzwa ukuba ngubani oza kubaxhasa kwikhokhasi yabo yendawo, uBen Carson (23%) kunye noDonald Trump (23%) babopha indawo ephezulu. Inqanaba elilandelayo labaviwa libandakanya uCarly Fiorina (10%) kunye noTed Cruz (9%), alandelwe nguScott Walker (7%), uJeb Bush (5%), uJohn Kasich (4%), uMarco Rubio (4%), kunye neRandi Paul (3%). Abaphumeleleyo bokugqibela bekhokhasi ye-Iowa, uMike Huckabee kunye noRick Santorum, igarner nganye yipesenti ezi-2 zevoti. Akukho namnye kwabaviwa abathandathu ababandakanyiweyo kwirejista yonyulo ngaphezulu kwenkxaso ye-1%.
Ezi ziphumo ziphawula ukushukuma okubalulekileyo kwibhodi yabaphambili evela kwi-poll yase-Iowa yaseMonmouth ethathwe phambi kwengxoxo-mpikiswano yokuqala, utshilo uPatrick Murray, umlawuli weziko elizimeleyo leYunivesithi yaseMolling Poll kwiWest Long Branch, NJ. I-Carson kwaye, ukuya kuthi ga kwinqanaba elincinci, i-Fiorina inyukile, ngelixa u-Walker eye waphela ngasemva.
Phakathi kuJulayi, uWalker wayeyimbaleki yangaphambili eIowa, noTrump noCarson belandela ngasemva. Ukusukela ngoko, inkxaso kaWalker yehle ngamanqaku ayi-15, ngelixa iCarson inyuke ngamanqaku ali-15 kunye nekaTrump ngamanqaku ali-10. Inkxaso inyukile nakwi-Fiorina ngamanqaku e-7 ukusukela kwi-poll yokugqibela ye-Iowa yaseMonmouth.
Kuphela yi-12% kuphela yeecaucusgoers eziya kwiRiphabhlikhi ezithi zigqibe kwelokuba ngubani umgqatswa abazakuxhasa ngoFebruwari. Enye i-42% inokhetho olomeleleyo ngoku kodwa ikulungele ukuqaphela abanye abagqatswa, iipesenti ezingama-27 zinokhetho oluncinci, kwaye iipesenti ezingama-20 zithi azigqibekanga nokuba ziyakwazi ukukhetha igama ngoku. Abavoti aba-1-in-4 (25%) bathi ukhetho lwabo luthothisiwe ukuya kumgqatswa omnye okanye ababini, ngelixa uninzi (54%) lusithi luyazibona lukhokelela nakubani na kwabagqatswa aba-3 ukuya kwaba-4 okwangoku kugqatso. Enye i-17% ithi baqwalasele ngokwenyani ukunika inkxaso yabo kubagqatswa aba-5 okanye nangaphezulu ebaleni.
Phakathi kwabavoti abathi isigqibo sabo sangoku sivalwe ngokuqinileyo, uTrump ukhokela nge-30%, xa kuthelekiswa ne-22% yeCarson. Phakathi kwabo bathi banokhetho oluncinci okanye baphezulu emoyeni, iipesenti ezingama-25 zixhasa uCarson kunye ne-16% emva kweTrump.
Inkxaso kaTrump okwangoku yomelele ngakumbi kuneyeCarson, kodwa abavoti baseIowa basathathela ingqalelo abagqatswa abambalwa ngaphambi kokuba bafike kwisigqibo sokugqibela, utshilo uMurray.
I-Iowa GOP caucus goers ithi, nokuba baxhasa bani kwiziprayimari, ilizwe lifuna umongameli ovela ngaphandle kukarhulumente onokuthi azise indlela entsha eWashington (66%) endaweni yomntu onamava karhulumente owaziyo ukwenza izinto (23%). Phakathi kwabo bakhetha umntu wangaphandle, ngaphezulu kwesibini kwisithathu baxhasa omnye wabaviwa abathathu abangazange babambe isikhundla esonyuliweyo-iTrump (32%), iCarson (26%), okanye i-Fiorina (13%). Nangona kunjalo, naphakathi kwabo bathi ilizwe lifuna umntu onamava kurhulumente, i-30% ngoku ixhasa omnye kwaba bathathu abagqatswa.
Ukujonga amandla asisiseko abagqatswa abakhokelayo, Iowa I-Republican ngoku zibambe uluvo oluqinisekileyo lwe-Ben Carson kwi-81% evumayo kwi-6% kuphela engathandekiyo, xa kuthelekiswa ne-63% ethandekayo kunye ne-11% engathandekiyo ngoJulayi. UCarly Fiorina uwabonile amanani akhe ephucuka ukuya kuma-67% kwaye i-8% ingathandeki, ukusuka kwi-44% kunye ne-10% ngoJulayi. Ukwamkelwa kwegama likaJohn Kasich nako kuye kwenyuka kodwa umsantsa ophakathi kokulinganisa kwakhe okuhle nokungalunganga uhlala u-32% ulungile kwaye i-23% ayithandeki, xa kuthelekiswa ne-24% kunye ne-17% kwivoti yangaphambili.
Ukulinganiswa kukaDonald Trump kuye kwanyuka kancinci - ngoku kumile kuma-52% kulunge kwaye ama-33% engathandekiyo, xa kuthelekiswa nama-47% nama-35% ngoJulayi- ngelixesha ukulinganiswa kukaScott Walker noJeb Bush kuthabathe idiphu kwinyanga ephelileyo. Inqanaba likaWalker ngoku li-64% lilungile kwaye i-16% ayithandeki, xa kuthelekiswa ne-73% kunye ne-9% kwinyanga ephelileyo. Ukulinganiswa kukaBush ngoku i-32% iyathandeka kwaye i-51% ayithandeki, xa kuthelekiswa ne-40% kunye ne-42% kwinyanga ephelileyo. Ukulinganiswa kukaTed Cruz kwe-58% kuyathandeka kwaye i-21% ayithandeki iyafana ne-53% kunye ne-17% yokulinganisa awayeyibambe kwinyanga ephelileyo.
I-poll ikwachonge inkxaso yabagqatswa phakathi kwamaqela aphambili e-GOP caucus goers, kubandakanya:
- Itheko leTi -Trump ikhokelela kwi-Carson 27% ukuya kwi-22% phakathi kwabaxhasi beTi Party, kunye neCroz kwi-16%. Phakathi kwabangengabo abaxhasi beTe Party, uCarson uthatha u-25% ukuya kwi-19% ekhokela uTrump.
- Iingcamango - Abavoti abalondolozayo bahlule ivoti yabo phakathi kweCarson (24%), iTrump (23%), kunye neCroz (16%). Abanye abavoti abagcinayo banokubuyela umva emva kweCarson (25%) okanye iTrump (23%). Ukumodareyitha kubavoti benkululeko bakhetha iTrump (26%), ilandelwe ngu-Fiorina (18%) kunye no-Carson (17%).
- IiVangeli - Abavoti beVangeli bathanda uCarson (29%) olandelwa nguTrump (23%). Abavoti abangashumayeliyo bakhetha iTrump (24%), iCarson (18%), kunye neFiorina (13%).
- Isini -Amadoda akhetha iTrump (27%) ngaphezulu kweCarson (17%), ngelixa abasetyhini bekhetha uCarson (30%) ngaphezulu kukaTrump (19%).
Emva kwenyanga engaphezulu kwenyanga uTrump ephumelela phantse lonke iqela labantu baseRiphabhlikhi, ekugqibeleni sifumene umahluko omncinci kwiibhloko zokuvota esithetha ngazo, utshilo uMurray.
I-Hawkeye State Republicans yahlulelene malunga nokuba isigqibo sabo sokugqibela malunga nokuba ngubani oza kuxhasa iiprayimari zaseRiphabhlikhi siza kwehla kwizikhundla zomgqatswa kwimiba (45%) okanye iimpawu zabo kunye namava (45%).
Inkqubo ye- IYunivesithi yaseMonmouth Poll yenziwa ngomnxeba ukusukela nge-27 ukuya kwi-30 ka-Agasti ngo-2015, kubavoti abangama-405 base-Iowa kusenokwenzeka ukuba bazimase amagunya kamongameli waseRiphabhlikhi ngoFebruwari ka-2016. Uvoto lwenziwe liziko laseMonmouth kwiPolling Institute kwiWest Long Branch.
