UVladimir Putin uhambahamba ngenqwelo moya yaseRussia engaphandle kweMoscow ngo-2010. (Ifoto: Alexey Druzhinin / AFP / Getty Images)Imifanekiso kaGetty Ubudlelwane phakathi kweRussia neTurkey abuzange bube mnandi ukusukela emva kwenyanga kaNovemba, xa inqwelo moya yaseTurkey yadubula ibhombu yaseRussia kumda weSyria, yabulala umqhubi wayo. Oko kwaqala imfazwe yamazwi phakathi kweMoscow neAnkara ekufuneka ixhalabise wonke umntu, kuba eyokuqala inamawakawaka ezixhobo zenyukliya kwaye eyokugqibela lilungu leNATO.
Ukusasazwa kwe-Kremlin ngokuchasene ne-Ankara kuye kwanda emva kwexesha, kuseta inqanaba lokujongana ngakumbi. Njengoko Ndicacisile apha kwiveki ephelileyo , Amajelo eendaba aseRussia aqale atyhola iSinayi yengozi yeMetrojet 9268 ekwindla ephelileyo kwi-Islamic State, inkohlakalo eyabulala abantu abamsulwa abangama-224, phantse bonke ingabantu baseRussia-ibango elithembekileyo. Nangona kunjalo, i-Kremlin iye yatshintsha ngesiquphe ikhosi kwaye ngoku isola ukubulawa kwabantu ngobuninzi kwabagrogrisi base-Turkish ultranationalist ngaphandle kobungqina obunikiweyo bokuxhasa oko kuqhushumbo.
Apho izinto zinokuya khona phakathi kweRussia neTurkey, iintshaba zakudala eziye zalwa kaninzi kwiinkulungwane ezidlulileyo, kungqinwe kule veki xa iKremlin yabhengeza. ukuzilolonga okukhulu kwezomkhosi kwimimandla yelizwe ekufutshane neTurkey. Amajoni afuduselwa ukulungela ngokupheleleyo ukulwa, inqanaba lokugqibela ngaphambi kwemfazwe yokudubula, kunye noSergei Shoygu, umphathiswa wezomkhosi wase-Russia, ebhengeza kwi-TV, Saqala ukumangaliswa kwethu kokulungiswa komkhosi kwicala lesicwangciso se-Southwest.
Oko kuya kuba sisikhokelo seTurkey. Ezi ziqhelaniso zibandakanya iSithili saseMazantsi soMkhosi kunye nomkhosi waselwandle we-Black Sea Fleet, ezibandakanyeke kakhulu kwimfazwe yaseRussia engeyiyo eyimfihlo kwimpuma ye-Ukraine. Nangona kunjalo, bakwabandakanya i-floti yeLwandle lweCaspian yoLwandle, engekho ndawo kufutshane neUkraine.
Kunzima ukubona ukuba iTurkey inokuma njani ngaphandle kokuba isixeko samandulo se-2 yezigidi sichithakele nje iikhilomitha ezingama-50 ukusuka kumda waso.
Oku kuthetha ukuba uqeqesho lwe-snap, olubonakaliswe kakhulu kwimithombo yeendaba yaseKremlin, imalunga neTurkey, hayi iRussia. Oku kubuyela kwiziganeko zamva nje emhlabeni eSyria, apho urhulumente wase-Kremlin oxhaswe ngu-Bashar al-Assad etyumza ngokuthe ngcembe abachasi bakhe, enkosi ngoncedo lomkhosi oluvela eRussia nase Iran. Imikhosi yolawulo iyavala iAleppo, isixeko esikhulu saseSyria, kunye nabantu abangama-50 000 sele babalekile isixeko esoyikeka.
Umkhosi waseRussia ubonakalisa ukungakhathalelwa kwabantu ababuleweyo. Umkhosi womoya kaMnu Putin wabulala phantse ama-700 abantu baseSyria kwinyanga ephelileyo (ukuthelekisa, i-Islamic State yabulala abantu abangaphantsi kwe-100 baseSyria ngoJanuwari), kwaye ukuba ukutyunyuzwa kwekomkhulu laseChechen laseGrozny ngo-1994-95, xa imikhosi yaseRussia yabulala malunga nama-35,000. AmaChechens, uninzi lwabantu, kwiiveki nje ezintandathu, sisiphi na isikhokelo, abahlali baseAleppo banobulumko bokufikelela kude kangangoko banako.
Akufuneki ukongeza, ukungqingwa ngegazi okunjalo kwe-Aleppo kungabeka imeko yentlekele kwihlabathi elinokuthi lingaqapheli. Kunzima ukubona ukuba iTurkey inokuma njani ngaphandle kokuba isixeko samandulo se-2 yezigidi sichithakele nje iikhilomitha ezingama-50 ukusuka kumda waso.
Yiyo kanye imeko ebonakalise abahlalutyi abanamava. Kwizangqa zePentagon, phakathi kwabo babukele imfazwe esakhasayo phakathi kweMoscow neAnkara, izicatshulwa ze le vidiyo bhanyabhanya idumileyo ziqhelekile ngoku. Ngokukhathazayo, abahlalutyi abakrelekrele baseRussia bacinga ngeendlela ezifanayo.
Namhlanje uPavel Felgenhauer upapashiwe uhlalutyo lwakhe Phantsi kwesihloko esoyikisayo, iRussia iqale amalungiselelo emfazwe enkulu, kwaye ibhala ityala elithembisayo lokuba imithambo enamazantsi entshona yelizwe iyisigqubuthelo semfazwe yokudubula neTurkey- kwaye ke neNATO nayo, ukuba iAnkara ithathwa njenge Ukuzikhusela kwayo kwaye kunokubanga ilungelo layo kwiNqaku 5, ukuzikhusela ngokudibeneyo, okunyanzela onke amalungu eAtlantic Alliance ukuba ancede iTurkey.
'Kucacile ukuba kufuneka kubekho' ulungelelwaniso 'lokwenyani luka Mnumzana u-Obama, into i-United States engenakho ukuyinyamezela iRussia-kodwa iphi? Ukuba andazi, ndiqinisekile neKremlin ayiyazi. '
Njengoko INew York Times yomile waseKremlin, iSebe [lezoKhuselo] liyalele ukuhambisa isimanga kule minyaka mithathu idlulileyo njengoko ukungavisisani phakathi kweMpuma neNtshona kuye kwanda. Ukuhamba ngamanye amaxesha kuye kwafika njengoko umlo usanda e-Ukraine nase-Syria. Ngapha koko, ukusebenzisa imithambo enkulu yomkhosi njengesigqubuthelo sobundlongondlongo ngumnqwazi omdala eMoscow. Yayisetyenziswa ngexesha lika-Agasti 1968 lokuhlasela kweSoviet kweCzechoslovakia, echaza ukuba kutheni i-NATO ihlala ixhuma xa iMoscow ibamba imithambo yomkhosi naphi na kumhlaba we-NATO, ngelixa ukuzilolonga kwangoko kule veki kungakhange kubangele ukoyikeka kwemfazwe ebandayo.
Umnumzana Felgenhauer upeyinta imeko eyothusayo. Njengomkhosi wabavukeli okhusela iAleppo ngendlela yaseStalingrad, umkhosi waseSyria, ngoncedo lwaseRussia, uqalisa ukungqinga isixeko ixesha elide, esebenzisa amandla omlilo amakhulu, esiba sisiphithiphithi sobuntu sohlobo olungazange lubonwe kumashumi eminyaka, intlekele eya kuthi inciphise i-1992- Ingqingo ye-95 yeSarajevo. Nangona kunjalo, nayiphi na intshukumo yaseTurkey yokuphakamisa oko kungqinga, nokuba kungaphunyezwa kumazwe aphesheya, iya kukhawuleza iye emfazweni.
Umnumzana Felgenhauer akafumani mazwi malunga noku: iRussia iqale ukuthunyelwa kwemikhosi kunye nezixhobo zemfazwe enkulu neTurkey. Umnumzana Putin uthathe isigqibo sokuvumela umxhasi wakhe, urhulumente wase-Assad, aphumelele imfazwe yamakhaya enegazi, okokuqala emantla ejikeleze iAleppo, kwaye nakuphi na ukuhamba kweTurkey okanye i-NATO ukubamisa kuya kudibana ngenkani. Ukuza kuthi ga ngoku, uMongameli u-Barack Obama uvumele umnumzana Putin ukuba enze nantoni na ayithandayo eSyria, nokuba zithini na iindleko kubomi obumsulwa, kungoko iKremlin ingenasizathu sokucinga ukuba iyakutshintsha.
Imfazwe yaseYom Kippur ka-Okthobha u-1973, xa i-United States kunye ne-Soviet Union zazisondela ngendlela eyothusayo kwimfazwe enkulu yamandla, ikhankanywa njengomzekelo owoyikisayo ka Mnu. Felgenhauer -kodwa eyaphela ngolonwabo xa imfazwe yenyukliya yathintelwa ngenxa yobuchule bezopolitiko. Akukho sizathu sokucinga ukuba ulawulo oluxakekileyo luka-Obama kukuba ukuzimela kwezopolitiko.
Kodwa ngubani uPavel Felgenhauer? Ngelishwa, akangomfo kwiziliphu ezinoboya kwigumbi elingaphantsi lomntu okhupha iingcamango ezingaqhelekanga zelenqe. Endaweni yoko, ungomnye wabahlalutyi abaphezulu bezokhuselo baseRussia abanonxibelelwano oluqinileyo emkhosini welo lizwe. Uhlala egxeka umkhosi waseRussia kunye nolawulo lukaPutin; kuyaphawuleka ukuba wapapasha uhlalutyo lwakhe kwi Novoe Vremya (New Times), iphephancwadi leendaba laseUkraine, hayi indawo yaseRussia, mhlawumbi ngenxa yokuba olu hlobo lokuthetha inyani alwamkelekanga ekhaya. Izibhengezo zakhe zihlala zichanekile (umzekelo, ukuqikelela kwakhe ukuhlasela kweRussia eGeorgia ngo-Agasti 2008, awayeyibiza ngokuba ziinyanga ezimbini ngaphambi kokuba yenzeke).
Leyo yeyona nkxalabo iphambili ye-NATO okwangoku: Emva kweminyaka yobuthathaka kunye nokuphelelwa lixesha, ulawulo luka-Obama lunokuzifumana luxhaswe yikona ngezenzo ezinoburharha zaseRussia.
Ngaba ukwesaba kukaMnu Felgenhauer kuqinisekisiwe? Uninzi lwabantu baseNtshona bacinga ngeendlela ezifanayo. Ngokuvumela uMnu Putin ukuba abaleke nayo nantoni na ayithandayo eSyria, uMnu.Obama udale imeko eyingozi kakhulu kulo mmandla. Ngokushiya umda wakhe odumileyo wase-Syria ngo-Septemba ngo-2013, iNdlu ye-White House yayikhuphela umgaqo-nkqubo waseMelika phaya kuMnu Putin, njengoko ndandilumkisile ngeloxesha , kunye nolawulo luka-Obama, ongenamandla okuphembelela imicimbi eyoyikisayo eSyria, uyayiqonda kancinci.
Ngaba sisiya 'kumzuzu wethu waseSarajevo'? igosa eliphezulu le-NATO libuze ngokungathandabuzekiyo. Kucacile ukuba kufuneka kubekho 'ulungelelwaniso' lokwenyani luka Mnumzana u-Obama, into i-United States engenakho ukuyinyamezela iRussia-kodwa iphi? Ukuba andazi, ndiqinisekile ukuba iKremlin ayenzi njalo.
Leyo yeyona nkxalabo iphambili ye-NATO okwangoku: Emva kweminyaka yobuthathaka kunye nokuphelelwa lixesha, ulawulo luka-Obama lunokuzifumana luxhaswe yikona ngezenzo ezinoburharha zaseRussia. Ngokukodwa ukuba kudityaniswe nokusabela okungathandabuzekiyo kweTurkey, oko kunokudala ubugwenxa bemilinganiselo yembali ejikeleze iAleppo. Nangona i-White House ibone kwangaphambili nakuphi na ukungenelela komkhosi kwimbubhiso yaseSyria, kufanelekile ukuba uqaphele ukuba uMnu. Obama wakhokela i-NATO emfazweni eLibya kanye kwiminyaka emihlanu eyadlulayo ukuthintela ukubulawa kwabantu eBanghazi, isisongelo esincinci sobuntu Kunekrele eyoyikisayo leemfazwe zaseRashiya kunye namandla omoya ajingise iAleppo ngoku.
Kwelabo icala, amaRussia axhasa i-ante yolawulo ukupapasha amabango liSebe lezoKhuselo ukuba uhlaselo lomoya ku-Aleppo izolo lubulale abantu, kubandakanya nokuqhushumisa kwesibhedlele, ngenene kwenziwe yi-US Air Force A-10s, ulwaphulo-mthetho lwemfazwe abathi iPentagon izamile ukutyhoboza eMoscow. Ngapha koko, ubukrelekrele baseMelika bayazi ukuba lo ibingumsebenzi woMkhosi Womoya wase-Russia: Sinee-intercepts zabaqhubi beenqwelomoya baseRussia ababethetha ngexesha lohlaselo, lacacisa igosa lePentagon. Njengesiqhelo, amaRashiya ayaxoka. Ukanti olu hlobo lwentengiselwano enganyanisekanga yaseKremlin, yeyiphi inhloli ekuthiwa yi-disinformation, yiyo kanye le nto abalawuli baka-Obama benqabileyo ukuyiphikisa, njengoko ndicacisile kule kholamu, kumzamo olilize wokugcina iKremlin yonwabile.
Umnumzana Putin endaweni yoko uthathe umlinganiso ka Mnumzana u-Obama kwaye uwaphindaphinde kabini, egcina ulawulo lwabathengi bakhe e-Syria. I-Russia iphumelele eSyria, kwaye i-NATO kunye neNtshona zibambekile kweso siphumo, njengabahlali base-Aleppo. Ndiyathemba ukuba u-Obama akathathi sigqibo sokufumana umqolo ngoku, utshilo umphathi jikelele waseMelika odla umhlala-phantsi, owazi kakuhle amaRussia, kuba iKremlin ikwi 'drive' eSyria kwaye ayizukuphinda ibuye.
Kubonakala ngathi mancinci amathuba okuba le Ndlu ye-White ithathe amaRussia ase-Syria. Nangona kunjalo, akukho ziqinisekiso zokuba i-Ankara ithambekele ngokulinganayo ukuvumela i-Kremlin ukuba yenze nantoni na efunayo kumda wayo osemazantsi, kwaye yile ndlela i-NATO inokungena ngayo kwiMfazwe yesibini yeHlabathi malunga neLevant. Iintloko ezipholileyo zinokuhlala zikhona, kwaye bonke abantu abanengqondo kufuneka banethemba lokuba bazakwenza apha.
