Ukungqinelana sisilingo.Ifoto nguSlaven Vlasic / Getty Izithombe IWall Street ihlala igcwele iGrails eNgcwele-ezo zibikezelo, amacebo, iindlela ezifihlakeleyo, kunye nokutolika ngobuchule okuthembisa ulwazi lomnye umhlaba kunye nobutyebi ukuba nje ukuthembela . Zihlala zihanjiswa kwilizwe lotyalo-mali kusetyenziswa ibhokisi emnyama -Inkqubo evaliweyo apho amagalelo kunye neziphumo zaziwa khona, kodwa ukusebenza kohlalutyo lwangaphakathi kushiyeke kuyimfihlo ephezulu, kuphela kukutya kwababingeleli abakhulu. Ukuma kwebhokisi emnyama kuya ngaphaya kweemarike, nangona kunjalo. Ayothusi into yale mihla, edityanisiweyo ukuba xa uthatha umntu okrelekrele kakhulu, imiqolo yeekhompyuter, iifomula zobunini, kunye nekhowudi ebonwa ngulowo ulumkileyo kuphela, kwaye emva koko yongeza umtya wempumelelo uqikelelo , boom-uphela nge-nerdy, eyenzelwe intlalontle-media superstar eyenzeka ngesiquphe ukuqikelela ipholile kubasebenzi.
UNate Silver unjalo lonto mfo. Cinga ngoku:
- Wabiza ngempumelelo iziphumo ezingama-49 kuma-50 kumazwe ngo-2008 e-US.
- Wazibiza ngempumelelo iziphumo kuma-50 kumazwe angama-50 kunyulo luka-2012 lwase-US.
Isilivere yaba ngumntu ohamba ngamanani smart ngobusuku. Uye wasuka kwiingcali zezibalo zebaseball waya kwingcali yeepolitiki. Imodeli yakhe yezibalo kunyulo wabetha intatheli zopolitiko kunye nabahlomli kumdlalo wabo-injalo ingxelo yakhe yeMoneyball-yezopolitiko. Ngamafutshane nje abalandeli bakhe kuTwitter bagqitha kwisigidi esinye, incwadi yakhe yaba yeyona nto ithengiswayo kakhulu, kwaye i-FiveThirtyEight.com yaba yindawo ekuyo yonke indawo — nditsho nokubonelela ngolwazi lokutyala imali njenge, Ngaba ukhathazekile malunga neStock Market? Nantoni na oyenzayo, Musa ukuthengisa.
Ukanti kuye nabani na olandela ugqatso lobumongameli ngo-2016, uqikelelo lwezepolitiki zeSilver zabetha eludongeni. Ngaphezulu kwekhosi ka-2016 iSilver yathumela amathuba onyulo emihla ngemihla aye ajikeleza okwekati emlilweni- ayothusi into yokuba imeko yakho entsha ye-guru inyanzela ukuba ubonelele uqikelelo yonke imihla yomjikelo wonyulo ngaphezulu konyaka.
Ndiyavuma ukuba kuthi ngabantu abafayo, ukungaguquguquki kusisilingo- nakubantu abafunde kakhulu nabazizityebi. Umhlobo wam, usomashishini ophumeleleyo, kwaye satya isidlo sasemini kwiminyaka embalwa eyadlulayo. Ngexesha lokuthetha kwethu wakhankanya ukuba ubanjwe kwi-scam ye-hedge fund scam eyaziwayo (hayi iMadoff). Ndambuza, ngaphambi kokuba achaze okuninzi, ukuba ukubuya kwakhe kulungile ngenyanga nganye. Uphendule wathi, Qho ngenyanga. Emva kwexesha, ndambamba ndaza ndafumanisa ukuba ulahlekelwe zizigidi zeerandi.
Lo mnqweno wokuqiniseka, wokuxelwa kwangaphambili, ukho kuyo yonke indawo kuluntu lwanamhlanje lokujonga. Imidlalo nayo? Uyabheja. Ngexesha lomdlalo webhola ekhatywayo wangoMvulo ebusuku, omnye wababhengezi, uRon Jaworski, wabeka amanani kunye nokungangqinelani kwendlela yokudlala umdlalo webhola ekhatywayo: Ukudlala umnxeba kumalunga nokuba kunokwenzeka, akuqinisekanga.
Oko kuvakala kunjalo lula ukwetyisa. Kodwa ayisiyiyo. Ukusilela kokuqiniseka kuhlala kuyinto ebangela uloyiko lwethu olunzulu. UDavid Rock wayenesiqwenga esikhulu kwiPsychology yanamhlanje ebethelela i-conundrum:
Ezinye iinxalenye zophicotho-zincwadi kunye nokubonisana zenza imali yazo ngokunceda abaphathi ukuba bafumane umbono wokuqina okuqinisekileyo, ngokucwangcisa ngobuchule kunye 'nokuqikelela'. Ngelixa iimarike zezemali zika-2008 zabonisa kwakhona ukuba ikamva ngokwendalo lingaqinisekanga, eyona nto iqinisekileyo kukuba abantu baya kuhlawula imali eninzi ukuze bazive bengaqinisekanga. Kungenxa yokuba ukungaqiniseki uziva, kwingqondo, njengesoyikiso ebomini bakho.
Yiyo loo nto iSilver yathandwa kangaka-walususa uloyiko-okanye ubuncinci yayiyimbali leyo. Kodwa nomfana onamanani onke wemka kumanani. Wavuma kwi-mea culpa yakhe enzima, indlela endenza ngayo njengePundit kwaye ndajija uDonald Trump ukuba angasebenzisi iimodeli zakhe zamanani kugqatso lukaDonald Trump. Endaweni yoko wasebenzisa iingqikelelo ezifundileyo, ezenza ukuba amanani-ayenze-ndenze-ndidume-wena-ngoku ungathemba-andiyiyo-i-pundit-eyakhelwe-ngaphakathi ukuphuma emanzini. Okubi kakhulu, yindlela uSilver ayenze ngayo iingqikelelo , wayenokuthi ulungile nokuba kwenzeka ntoni. Kubalandeli bakaSilver, uqikelelo lwe-2016 olubiyelweyo, uphikisana naye ukonwaba , ayinamsebenzi:
Jonga irekhodi likaNate. UTrump wayengu ngaphandle.
Kwakungonelanga zembali idatha.
Uyafumana uninzi yazo zilungile.
Ipesenti kaNate yokuphumelela injalo phezulu.
Ezo mpendulo zibuthathaka zibonisa isiseko esingalunganga kwindlela yeSilver. UMichael Mauboussin, ongomnye weengcinga eziphambili kwicandelo lokuthatha izigqibo phambi kokungaqiniseki, ufundisa: Into ebambekayo yeyokuba iingcali ezikhokelayo kumacandelo ahlukeneyo-kubandakanya ukubheja amahashe, ukungcakaza ekhasino kunye notyalo-mali zonke zigxininisa kwinto enye . Siyibiza ngokuba sisiphumo sikaBabe Ruth: nangona uRuth wabetha kakhulu, wayengomnye wababethi abakhulu bebhola.
Yatsho enye indlela: Ufuna ukucinga ngokwexabiso elilindelekileyo. Kodwa ayisiyondlela exabisekileyo okanye eluncedo yokucinga ngonyulo olunye apho omabini amacala acinga ngokoqobo ubomi nokufa. Kodwa akukho kuqiniseka, akukho siqinisekiso-nanini. Ihlabathi malunga ukumangaliswa .
Kwaye iSilver ishiya izinto ezimangalisayo, ezingaqhelekanga nezingalindelekanga. Akanandlela yokuqikelela okanye yokuphendula kwabo. Kwimpumelelo kaTrump, uSilver wathi, lolona phuhliso lukhwankqisayo lwezopolitiko ebomini bam. Kodwa akukho mntu unokuqikelela izinto eziza kuthengiswa ngaphandle, ke ukuba umntu onjengoSilivere wenza ngathi unakho-lumka. U-Spyros Makridakis, kwiphepha lakhe elidumileyo lowe-1979 Ukuchaneka koqikelelo: Uphando lwe-Empirical, lubonise ukuba ukubetha kulula kwaye kuyashukuma. Ngaba ukuhambisa imirhumo bekuya kuqikelela kunyulo ezimbini ezenze iSilver igama lendlu?
Nangona kunjalo, abakhuseli besilivere babuyela kuma-49 kuma-50 nama-50 kwangama-50 ngowama-2008 nango-2012-ubungqina, bathi njengoko bengahoyi u-2016. Kodwa ngo-2008 nango-2012, yeyiphi ipesenti yabo nzima iminxeba? Umzekelo, iCalifornia iluhlaza okwesibhakabhaka nokuba kutheni. Ke kusoloko kukho umngcipheko omkhulu wokuxhomekeka kwisicwangciso esifumana iifowuni ngokulula kwaye zilumle kwezi zinzima.
Oku ayizizo izinto ezintsha ezingangqinelaniyo onokucinga ngazo. Ithiyori esebenzayo yeemarike-iqhinga eliqhuba imali yehlabathi-nayo ayinasisombululo sokumangaliswa (okt, ii-swans ezimnyama). Isilivere ibonisa nje i-conundrum kuqeqesho olwahlukileyo, kodwa ingxaki efanayo yokucinezela. Ehlotyeni ngo-2016, uNassim Taleb, utata wengcinga emnyama ye-swan, wasungula ukugxeka okunzulu kweSilver kuluntu: @FiveThirtyEight isibonisa imeko yencwadi malunga nokuba ungabanjani akukho nto malunga nokwenzeka kodwa wenze ishishini kuyo.
Umdlalo wekrele lobukrelekrele: UNassim Taleb ngokuchasene neNate Silver.
Khetha icala lakho ngononophelo. Bubomi okanye ukufa.
UMichael Covel ngumbhali weencwadi ezintlanu: kubandakanya othengisa kakhulu kwilizwe liphela, Umkhondo olandelayo , kunye nengxelo yakhe yophando, Ukugqibezela iTurtleTrader . UMichael ulilizwi emva kweTrend Following Radio, enye indlela engaphantsi komhlaba eye yaphakama njenge- # 2 kwi-iTunes enezigidi ezi-5 zimamele.
