Ngaba i-Independent ingaluphumelela unyulo lukaMongameli?

Ukusuka kwi-CEO ye-Starbucks u-Howard Schultz ukuya kwi-dolophu yase-New York City, u-Michael Bloomberg, uninzi lwabazimeleyo kwezopolitiko bacinga ukusebenzela umongameli wase-U.S. Ngaba bame ithuba? Ngaba umceli mngeni onjalo ungonzakalisa okanye uncede ukuphinda ukhethe u-Donald Trump?

Bhalisela iNcwadana yezepolitiki yaBakhangeli

Ayingoosomashishini nje abambalwa abaneepokotho ezinzulu abajonge lo mdyarho. Kukwakho nethuba lokuba neDemokhrasi engenantlonelo njengoTulsi Gabbard okanye usoshiyali uBernie Sanders bathathe inxaxheba. Kwaye akukho mntu unokulawula iRiphabhlikhi njengoRhuluneli waseMaryland uLarry Hogan, uSenator waseNebraska uBen Sasse, owayesakuba nguSenator waseArizona uJeff Flake okanye owayengu-Senator waseTennessee uBob Corker ebonelela ngomceli mngeni. Ngaba umgqatswa onelebhile endinokuthi, ozimeleyo, angongamela abo bane-R okanye D ecaleni kwegama labo kunyulo lukamongameli.

I-Ice Cream, okanye 'Mna' Ndiyakhala?

Izazinzulu zopolitiko ngokubanzi ziyathandabuza ngamathuba umgqatswa ozimeleyo onawo. Uninzi lukholelwa ekubeni bambalwa abavoti abazimeleyo ngokwenyani, besithi uninzi lwabavoti ngabantu baseRiphabhlikhi, okanye bayame kwiDemocratic Party. Bavakalelwa kukuba bangaphantsi kwe-15% abavoti inokuthi ithathwa njengezimeleyo.

Kodwa Iipolp zeGallup ngokungaguquguqukiyo bonisa ukuba phakathi kwabathathu babavoti ukusondela kwisiqingatha bazithatha njengabathobekileyo, hayi inkululeko okanye ulondolozo, njengoko abaxhasi bakaSchultz besitsho. Ukuphendula abagxeki, ukuba umntu ukhetha i-strawberry, inyani yokuba basayalela i-ayisikhrim ngemini eshushu ayithethi ukuba bakhetha i-vanilla okanye itshokholethi, ukuba zezona kuphela iincasa ezikhoyo ezivenkileni.

Kuthekani ukuba abavoti bebenokhetho olunokuba luncedo? Kuthekani ukuba abathandi be-sitrobheli banoku-odola oko bafuna kwimenyu?

Kubekho imikhosi engaphezulu kwama-300 yeerhuluneli kunye nolonyulo lwama-senate phantse ama-400. Kula phantse imincintiswano engama-700, kuphela ngabantu abazimeleyo abasibhozo abaphumeleleyo (iisenethi ezimbini zase-US kunye neerhuluneli ezintandathu). Kodwa oku kucinga ukuba bekusoloko kukho umntu ozimeleyo onokukhetha. Kwipesenti ezili-12 kuphela zolo khuphiswano apho umgqatswa afumana ngaphezulu kweepesenti ezintlanu zevoti, esenza ukhetho olufanelekileyo lomvoti. Ke malunga neepesenti ezili-10 zayo yonke imiceli mngeni ethandabuzekayo, umgqatswa ngaphandle kweqela uyaphumelela.

Abaphumeleleyo abazimeleyo bebeliqela le-eclectic, ukusukela Owayesakuba yi-GOP Senator Lowell Weicker eConnecticut kulowo wayesakuba ngumlwi kunye nomdlali weqonga uJese Ventura eMinnesota ukuya owayesakuba yiRhuluneli uWally Hickel owayekhe wathandana namabhongo kamongameli kwaye wabuya neAlaska Independence Party. Kwaye abo babini beSenethi abazimeleyo, uBernie Sanders waseVermont kunye UAngus uKumkani waseMaine , basezikhundleni, sele bekhethwe kwakhona ngo-2018. Ngelixa uSanders ngusopolitiki osekhohlo kakhulu, UKumkani wahlula iivoti zakhe phakathi kweedemokhrasi kunye neTrump , nangona esenza iidemokhrasi, njengoko uSanders enze. Kwaye uKumkani wayeyirhuluneli ezimeleyo yaseMaine.

Ukubona indlela ezizimeleyo ezihamba ngayo ukuya kwezopolitiko zoloyiso, ndiye ndajonga iimeko ezintathu ukusukela ngo-2014, apho abantu abazimeleyo beza nemiceli mngeni emikhulu.

Walker Ophumeleleyo: IAlaska ngo-2014

Owayesakuba ngumpolitiki we-GOP, uBill Walker umceli mngeni kwiRhuluneli yeRiphabhlikhi uSean Parnell, owayethathe i-ofisi emva kokuba owayesakuba ngumgqatswa we-VP uSarah Palin esahlula imeko. Wenza itikiti lobumbano kunye nembangi yakhe ye-Democrat, kwaye wacela umngeni kulowo ubambe isikhundla njenge-maverick. Ngaphandle kokulandela kwezinye iipoll , kunye nokubandezeleka kwabazimeleyo abanakuphumelela ukuthandabuza, uWalker woyisa irhuluneli ehleliyo.

U-Walker kuye kwafuneka ajongane nokugxekwa ngawo omabini la maqela, into uSchultz, uBloomberg kunye nabanye abanokuba ngumceli mngeni ekufuneka beyiqwalasele. Yiloo nto uWeicker kwafuneka ajongane nayo ngexesha lengxoxo-mpikiswano yokunyusa irhafu. NjengoWeicker ngo-1994, uWalker wakhetha ukungabambeli ukuba akhethwe kwakhona ukunceda iDemokhrasi kugqatso ngo-2018 kungabinampumelelo.

Ukumangaliswa kukaSunflower: eKansas ngo-2014

I-Kansas GOP Senator uPat Roberts, umdlalo weNdlu yabameli kunye ne-US Senate, ujonge ukuphumelela elinye ixesha ngokulula ku-2014. Ekuqaleni konyaka, wabamba amanani aphindwe kabini kuChad Taylor, umtyunjwa weDemokhrasi, kwaye usaqhubeka ekhokela kuhlobo. Kodwa xa usomashishini uGreg Orman waphosa umnqwazi wakhe eringini, iivoti zabonisa ukuzimela phambi kukaSenator Roberts, iingcali ezimangalisayo. U-Orman uqhubeke nokukhokela i-Kansas GOP, kwaye UTaylor uphumile esikolweni , enika usomashishini ongathathi cala ithuba. Kwivoti nganye kwezintathu, u-Orman waboniswa ngaphambili. Ukongeza ekukhetheni inkxaso kwiiDemokhrasi, amanye amaRiphabhlikhi ade atshintshela kumgqatswa ozimeleyo .

Ngomhla woNyulo, yayinguRoberts owanikezela ngokumangaliswa, ephumelela iipesenti ezingama-53 ukuya kuma-43 epesenti (ngeLibertarian ethatha iipesenti ezintlanu). Kwakuyinto edanisayo ku-Orman kunye namaDemokhrasi ukuba bayeka ukumxhasa, kodwa yayisengumboniso ophantsi kwempumelelo yomhlaba kaRoberts.

Oyena Spoiler: Maine ngo-2014

IBombastic Maine GOP Irhuluneli uPaul LePage akazange aphumelele iipesenti ezingama-50 kwimidyarho yakhe yoburhulumente. Uphumelele i-GOP yaseprayimari ngo-2010 ngaphezulu nje kwesithathu sevoti. Wenza kakuhle umgqatswa ozimeleyo u-Eliot Cutler Iipesenti ezingama-37.6 ukuya kuma-35.9, kunye noMdemokhrasi ethatha ngaphantsi kweepesenti ezingama-20 kunye nabanye abazimeleyo abazahlula iipesenti ezintandathu. I-LePage iqhubekile ukuba ibe ngumdlalo wezopolitiko athi uluhlu lwezinto ezizezona ziphambili.

I-Democrat ephezulu, uMike Michaud, uthathe i-plunge ngo-2014, ecela umngeni kwiLePage. I-Independent Cutler yaphinda yaqhuba i-ofisi yesibini kulo nyaka , Wala ukuyekelela, nangona wayelandela kwindawo yesithathu kuluhlu olubanzi. Xa uthuli seluzinzile, uCutler uthathe iipesenti ezingama-8.5 zeevoti, esusa inkxaso eyoneleyo kuMichaud ukunika iLePage elinye ixesha, engaphantsi kweepesenti ezingama-50 yevoti kwakhona.

Olunjani Uphando lwaBazimeleyo

Ekucazululeni le miceli mngeni mithathu izimeleyo yesikhundla solawulo oluphezulu eMelika, sifumanisa ukuba abantu abazimeleyo banokuphumelela, ukuba banokwenza itikiti elidibanisa amalungu omabini amaqela, njengoko kungqinwe eAlaska. Ukuba elinye iqela lishiya ecaleni ukuvumela uzimele geqe, oko akuqinisekisi ukuba abantu abazimeleyo kunye neqela elirhoxayo liza kudibana, njengoko kufunyenwe eKansas. Njengoko imeko yeMaine ibonisa, ukubaleka okuzimeleyo kwindawo yesithathu ekude kunokuphosa ugqatso lomntu oza kuba sesikhundleni.

Ngokubhekiselele kwimincintiswano kamongameli, i-Independent iye yaqhuba kakuhle. Ukusukela nge-1788, i-14 ye-58 (iipesenti ezingama-24) abagqatswa abazimeleyo bawele umda weepesenti ezintlanu , bhetele kuneentlanga ezikwisikhundla esisezantsi. Nangona sinomongameli omnye ozimeleyo (uGeorge Washington), sibone abagqatswa besondela kwiipesenti ezingama-20 (uRoss Perot), bephumelela amazwe aliqela (uGeorge Wallace) kwaye badlala indima yomphangi (uJohn Anderson). Ngokuqinisekileyo amathuba awakho mkhulu kule yenzekayo ngo-2020, kodwa njengoko iintlanga zikwizizwe zonke zibonisile, xa zinikwe ithuba, ezo pesenti zingama-35 ukuya kuma-45 epesenti yabantu abazimeleyo bavotele i-ice cream ye-sitrobheli xa ikuluhlu, endaweni ye-vanilla kunye neencasa zetshokholethi ezinikezelwa ngokubanzi.

UJohn A. Tures nguprofesa wesayensi yezopolitiko kwiKholeji yaseLaGrange eLaGrange, eGeorgia-funda ibali lakhe elipheleleyo apha.