H. Ross Perot uva into — hayi uloyiso.(Ifoto: PETER MUHLY / AFP / Getty Izithombe) Kukho umbono ojikelezayo wokuba ixesha selifikile lokuba umgqatswa wesithathu. Kwithiyori, iyavakala-ngamanye amanyathelo bobabini uDonald Trump kunye noHillary Clinton bafumana amanqaku amabi kakhulu kunoBarry Goldwater (inqaku lamanzi asezantsi lamaphulo kamongameli anamhlanje). Kwelinye icala, amanqaku abo okuvunywa asezantsi anokulahlekisa.
Mhlawumbi oku kuyafana nokusikwa kwamaphepha xa kuthelekiswa namanxeba okuhlaba: bobabini banokungamkelwa kwindalo iphela, kodwa ukhetho alunakuba nzima. Ngenye indlela, ukhuphiswano lunokuba njalo phakathi kokutya i-urchin yolwandle okanye isidudu: bambalwa abantu baseMelika abonwabela i-uni benza njalo kakhulu, ngelixa isidudu sithathwa ngokungathandekiyo ngabo bonke.
Ngaphandle kweziphumo eziphezulu zokuvota kolunye uhlobo olukhethiweyo (ngubani ongafuni ukhetho oluninzi, ngaphandle kukaBernie Sanders?), Ipolitiki yaseMelika ayikaze ikhokelele ekuphumeleleni kolo khetho. Ukujongwa kwirekhodi yembali kutyhila ukuba kungaphambi kwexesha ukuqala ukuxoxa ngoMongameli uGary Johnson okanye uJill Stein.
Ixesha lokugqibela lokuba umntu abe ngumongameli wesithathu abe nefuthe lakhe ngo-2000, xa inkxaso kaRalph Nader yadumisa unyulo kuGeorge W. Bush ngaphezulu ko-Al Gore. Ke, ewe, kunyulo oluncinci, umntu wesithathu angenza umahluko kurhulumente. Kodwa uNader akakwazanga nokuqhekeza iipesenti ezintathu kwivoti yesizwe-kunzima ukuba sisiphumo esomeleleyo kunye nesikhalo esikude kunyulo oludlulileyo.
Ngo-1996 kwaye, ngakumbi ngo-1992, uH. Ross Perot wabeka iirekhodi namaphulo akhe obongameli. Ngokwenene wayevota kwindawo yokuqala kwiindawo ezahlukeneyo ngo-1992, into engazange ibonwe ngaphambili kumgqatswa ozimeleyo. Xa ebuzwa ukuba zeziphi izicwangciso aceba ukuphumelela kuzo, uPerot wabhengeza ukuba ucwangcise ukuthatha bonke abangama-50 emhlabeni. Ukanti ngaphandle kokufumana iipesenti ezingama-19 zevoti, waphumelela ngokuchanekileyo unothi ithi ngenxa yohlobo lonyulo lwaseMelika. Iivoti zonyulo zinikezelwa kuye nabani na onobuninzi obukhulu, ke ukufumana iipesenti ezingama-50 + zevoti kwilizwe elinikiweyo okanye iipesenti ezingama-40 kugqatso lweendlela ezintathu ziyafana ngokuchanekileyo.
I-1980 ibinokuthelekiswa kolu nyulo langoku. UMongameli uCarter wayejongwa njengongafanelekanga ngelixa uRonald Reagan wayejongwa njengongenangqondo malunga nokuzisa izixhobo zenyukliya. Umgqatswa ozimeleyo uJohn Anderson wathembisa ngobuchule kunye nokumodareyitha, kwaye wayevota ngaphezulu kweepesenti ezingama-20 ngexesha lasehlotyeni. Umba wokuba amfake kwingxoxo-mpikiswano kamongameli-ingekabikho isiko lonyulo olusemthethweni-yayiyinto yokuncamathela phakathi kwala maphulo mabini. Ekugqibeleni, uCarter wanikezela kwimfuno kaReagan yokuxoxa enye nenye, neziphumo ezibi. Kwaye uAnderson wahambisa nje iipesenti ezisixhenxe zevoti kunyulo lomhlaba lweReagan.
Ixesha lokugqibela lokuba umntu wesithathu aphumelele kulo naliphi na ilizwe kwakungo-1968, xa uGeorge Wallace owayengumbandlululi walwa noRichard Nixon noHubert Humphrey. Ngaphandle kwamabango esicwangciso esisezantsi sikaNixon, waphulukana namazwe amaninzi akumazantsi waya eWallace (kunye noHumphrey ethatha indawo kaMongameli waseTexas uLyndon Johnson). Ukuphumelela kuka-Wallace ezintlanu kwilizwe kwakungabalulekanga kwaphela kwisiphumo, njengoko iivoti zabo zonyulo ezidibeneyo ezingama-46 zazingazukutshintsha u-Nixon wama-301 ukuya kowe-191.
Iphulo likaWallace laphinda laxela uDixiecrat wangaphambili: Iphulo likaStrom Thurmond lowe-1948 ngokuchasene noMdemokhrasi uHarry Truman noRephabliki uThomas Dewey. Eli phulo likwabonisa owandulela ngqo uTruman njengesekela-mongameli we-FDR, u-quasi-Stalinist uHenry Wallace, eqhuba phantsi kweProgressive Party banner. Ngaphandle kokuba uTruman ebenemilinganiselo yokuvunywa ephantsi kangangokuba baya kuphumelela kuphela nguGeorge W. Bush ngaphezulu kweminyaka engama-50 kamva-kwaye ngaphandle kwayo yonke inyulo ngokuchaseneyo-uTruman waphumelela ngokugqibeleleyo ngamavoti onyulo angama-303 ukuya ku-189. UThurmond uphumelele ngaphantsi kweepesenti ezintathu zevoti iyonke kodwa ephethe imimandla emine (ngaphezulu kweepesenti ezisixhenxe zeevoti zonyulo), kwakhona ebonisa ukuba ayizizo iivoti ezingaphi ezifunyanwa ngumgqatswa ozimeleyo kodwa zisasazwa njani.
Owona mgqatswa uphumeleleyo kwiqela lesithathu wayesakuba ngumongameli wesibini, u-Teddy Roosevelt, ebaleka ngokuchasene no-William Howard Taft no-Woodrow Wilson ngo-1912. Iipesenti ezingama-80 zizonke. Umhlaba wonyulo awuzange uboniswe kwivoti ethandwayo, uWilson kuphela efumana malunga neepesenti ezingama-42. Umgqatswa wobusoshiyali u-Eugene V. Debs ufumene iipesenti ezintandathu zevoti, kwaye wagwetywa iminyaka emva koko nguMongameli uWilson ngokuthetha ngokuchasene noyilo lweWWI. Isigwebo sakhe satshintshwa ngumlandeli kaWilson, uWarren Harding, emva kokuba uDebs ebaleka ngokuchasene naye ngo-1920 ngelixa ndisavalelwe (wafumana iipesenti ezi-3.4!).
Ekuphela kwemizekelo yomntu wesithathu yimibuzo ye-trivia kwaye ayisebenzi. URobert La Follette waphumelela ilizwe elinye ngo-1924, uMillard Filmore omnye ngo-1856, kunye noJames Weaver baphumelela abahlanu ngo-1892 (kwakuloo nyaka Grover Cleveland waphumelela ukuphinda abuyele kwikota yesibini engazange ilandelwe). Ngo-1872 babengenalo neqela lesibini, njengoko bobabini u-Ulysses S. Grant noHorace Greeley babemele amaphiko ahlukeneyo eqela leRiphabhlikhi (kakhulu njengonyulo lowe-1824 lwaluphakathi kwabane bamaDemokhrasi).
Nangona izinto zazingaqhelekanga ngamanye amaxesha phambi kokuba kusekwe inkqubo yanamhlanje yamaqela, iziphumo bezisafana nanamhlanje ngokungabi namandla kwabantu besithathu. Uloyiso luka-Abraham Lincoln luka-1860 lwalungaphaya kweedemokhrasi ezintathu. Nangona kunjalo bedityanisiwe, ngebengazange bambethe kwitotali yonyulo. Kwangokunjalo, ukuba nabagqatswa abahlanu bafumana ezinye iivoti zonyulo kwakungakhathalelanga uloyiso luka-1836 luka-Martin Van Buren, njengoko abane babengenamsebenzi ku-Andrew Jackson ngo-1832.
Kungenzeka ukuba ngenye imini siza kubona uGary Johnson okanye uJill Stein ecaleni kukaTeddy Roosevelt kwiNtaba iRushmore. Ukuthetha ngokwembali, nangona kunjalo, khange kwenzeke. Akukho mgqatswa weqela lesithathu owakhe wasondela ekuphumeleleni ubongameli, nokuba yeyiphi na ivoti ethandwayo okanye ngokwekholeji yonyulo. Ngaba oko kuthetha ukuba ngekhe kwenzeke? Ngexesha elithile izinto ziyeke ukuba ngamabona-ndenzile kwaye ziqale ukuba yipateni.
UMichael Malice ngumbhali we Mfundi Othandekayo: Imbali engagunyaziswanga kaKim Jong Il . Ukwangumxholo wenoveli kaHarvey Pekar yemizobo uEgo & Hubris kunye nombhali weencwadi ezintlanu. Mlandele kuTwitter @michaelmalice.
