UClinton kumxhasi wakhe we-24 kuSeptemba eCresskill.
U-Hillary Clinton uthathe amanqaku amancinci ama-3 ekhokele u-Bernie Sanders e-New Hampshire, ngokokugqibela IYunivesithi yaseMonmouth Poll Abavoti boMbuso waseGranite abanokuthi bathathe inxaxheba kwizikolo zaseprayimari zikaFebruwari. USanders ugcina inzuzo yakhe phakathi kwabantu abazimeleyo ababhalisileyo kunye nabavoti abatsha, amadoda nabavoti abancinci. Nangona kunjalo, uClinton wenze iinzuzo ezinkulu kwezi nyanga zimbini zidlulileyo kunye nababhalisi beDemokhrasi, abasetyhini kunye nabavoti abadala.
Okwangoku, uClinton ubambe i-48% ukuya kwi-45% ekhokela uBernie Sanders kumjikelo wokuqala we-2016. Oku kubuyisela umva ukukhokelwa kweSanders ebibanjelwe kwivoti kaMonmouth kaSeptemba. Ukhokele uClinton ngama-43% ukuya kuma-36% xa uJoe Biden, uLincoln Chafee, kunye noJim Webb bebandakanyiwe kulonyulo, nangama-49% ukuya kuma-41% margin xa abaxhasi baba bathathu baphinde babekwa kukhetho lwabo lwesibini. Inkxaso kaMartin O'Malley (3%) kwipoll yangoku ayitshintshi kwiinyanga ezimbini ezidlulileyo.
USanders ugcina inzuzo efanayo awayeyibambe kwiinyanga ezimbini ezidlulileyo phakathi kweebhloko ezithile zokuvota. Ukhokela uClinton phakathi kwamadoda ngama-54% - 37% afana nomda wakhe ngoSeptemba (51% - 40%); phakathi kwabavoti abangaphantsi kweminyaka engama-50 ngama-54% - 36%, ikwafana neenyanga ezimbini ezidlulileyo (51% - 40%); naphakathi kwababhalisi abazimeleyo kunye nabavoti abatsha abanokuthi bavote okokuqala ngoFebruwari ngama-59% - 35%, kwakhona ngokufanayo nangoSeptemba (53% - 34%).
Kwelinye icala, uClinton uguqula intsilelo awayeyibambile phakathi kwabafazi - ngoku ekhokela uSanders 56% - 37% xa kuthelekiswa nomkhondo we-42% - 47% ngoSeptemba- naphakathi kwabavoti abakwiminyaka engama-50 nangaphezulu-ngoku abakhokelayo ngama-56% - 38% xa kuthelekiswa Ukulandela emva kwe-42% -47% kwiinyanga ezimbini ezidlulileyo. UClinton uthathe i-57% -35% ekhokelayo phakathi kweedemokhrasi ezibhalisiweyo, iqela eliza kwenza uninzi lwabakhethiweyo bokuqala bakaFebruwari. Yena noSanders babebotshelelwe kwi-46% ukuya kwi-46% kweli qela ngoSeptemba.
Iqela likaClinton lisandula ukuthatha ityala likaSanders ngesini ngamanye amazwi akhe. Esi inokuba sesinye sezizathu zokuba abe nakho ukubuyisa abavoti abasetyhini kwisiseko sakhe, utshilo uPatrick Murray, umlawuli weziko elizimeleyo leYunivesithi yaseMolling Poll kwiWest Long Branch, NJ.
Okwangoku, ngaphezulu nje kwesinye kwisithathu (35%) sabavoti abasisiseko bathi bagqibe kwelokuba bazakumxhasa bani, i-38% ithi banokhetho olomeleleyo kodwa bazimisele ukuqaphela abanye abagqatswa, i-14% inokhetho oluncinci, kwaye i-13% ithi abagqitywanga. Zimbalwa iiyantlukwano ezibalulekileyo kwezi zinto zifunyanisiweyo ngokubhekisele kulowo umgqatswa abaxhasayo, kodwa abalandeli bakaClinton banamathuba athe kratya kunokuba abavoti bakaSanders bacaphuke ukuba umgqatswa wabo khange abe ngumphathi womgangatho weqela ngo-2016.
Malunga ne-4-kwi-10 yabavoti bathi baya kuba (19%) okanye (23%) bangonwabi ukuba abagqatswa babo abangaphumelelanga ukutyunjwa kweDemokhrasi. Isiqingatha (50%) bathi baya kulunga ngesiphumo esahlukileyo. Ezi ziphumo azitshintshanga ukusuka ngoSeptemba. Ngaphantsi nje kwesiqingatha (47%) sabavoti bakaClinton bathi ngekhe bangonwabi ukuba akaphumeleli, nto leyo ingaphezulu kancinane kuneenyanga ezimbini ezidlulileyo (40%). Ngaphezulu nje kwesithathu (i-38%) sabavoti bakaSanders abanokuvuya xa umfana wabo engaphumeleli, kodwa le nto iphantsi ukusuka kuma-48% abaziva ngaloo ndlela ngoSeptemba.
Iziphumo ezidlulileyo zibonisa ukuba abaDemokhrasi ababhalisiweyo kunokwenzeka ukuba benze uninzi lwabanyulwa bokuqala. USanders kuye kwafuneka aqinisekise ngakumbi kwaba bavoti ukuba bamxhase okanye kuye kufuneka enze inani elizimeleyo labazimeleyo kunye nabavoti abatsha, utshilo uMurray. [Qaphela: INew Hampshire ivumela ubhaliso lolo suku.]
Ukujonga amandla abasisiseko abagqatswa, kunokwenzeka ukuba abavoti abaphambili bayaqhubeka ukuba nembono entle kubo bobabini uClinton (iipesenti ezingama-79 zithandeka - iipesenti ezili-15 zingathandekiyo) kunye neeSanders (iipesenti ezingama-86 zithandeka- iipesenti ezisi-8 zingathandekiyo). U-O'Malley ubambe i-32% ngokuthandekayo kunye ne-17% yokulinganisa okungathandekiyo. Zonke ezi ziphumo zifana kakhulu neziphumo zovoto zikaSeptemba, ngaphandle kokuphucuka okuncinci kulwazi lwabavoti kunye ne-O'Malley. Ipesenti yabavoti beDemokhrasi abangenalo uluvo lwerhuluneli yangaphambili yaseMaryland behle ukusuka kuma-64% ngoSeptemba ukuya kuma-51% kwivoti yangoku.
U-Lessig, unjingalwazi wezomthetho waseHarvard ophelise ugqatso lwakhe izolo emva kokukhutshelwa ngaphandle kwiingxoxo zeDemokhrasi, ulushiyile ugqatso kunye nabavoti be-1-in-4 baseNew Hampshire abanombono ngaye (i-11% iyathandeka kwaye i-15% ayilunganga). Xa ebuzwa ukuba ingaba kufanelekile na ukuba abe kwinqanaba lokujongana ubuso ngobuso, uninzi (53%) kunokwenzeka ukuba abavoti baseNew Hampshire abanalo uluvo nangayiphi na indlela. Phakathi kwabanye, ama-35% athi makabandakanywe kwaye yi-13% kuphela ethi akufuneki. Umbuzo ngoku uyintsokolo.
Inkqubo ye- IYunivesithi yaseMonmouth Poll Ukwafumanise ukuba i-58% yabavoti baseprayimari abaziintloko bayasazi isicwangciso sohlahlo-lwabiwo mali esaphunyezwa yiCongress kwiveki ephelileyo. Phakathi kweli qela, i-56% iyasivuma isivumelwano kwaye yi-19% kuphela engavumiyo. Abavoti bakaClinton (72%) banokwenzeka ngakumbi kunabavoti baseSanders (iipesenti ezingama-42) zokuvuma esi sivumelwano, nangona iSenator yaseVermont ivotele ukudlula kwayo.
Isininzi (42%) sivakalelwa kukuba i-Congressional Democrats ivumile ukuba isixa esifanelekileyo sokufikelela kwisivumelwano, ngelixa i-26% isithi amaDemokhrasi alalanise kakhulu kwaye i-14% ithi iiDemokhrasi azikhange zilalanise ngokwaneleyo - iziphumo ezixubeneyo ezibonisa ukuba abavoti beDemokhrasi bangakhathazeki kakhulu ngendima yeqela labo kuthethathethwano lohlahlo-lwabiwo mali. Kwangelo xesha, uninzi (iipesenti ezingama-57) zabavoti baziva ngathi iPublic Republic Party khange ilalanise ngokwaneleyo, ama-25% athi i-GOP yabeka esichengeni isixa esifanelekileyo, kwaye iipesenti ezi-6 bathi balalanisa kakhulu.
Ezi zinto zifunyanisiweyo zahlukile kwizimvo zabavoti abanokuthi bathathe inxaxheba kwiprayimari yase-New Hampshire yase-Republican. Kwiziphumo zovoto ezikhutshwe izolo, yi-29% kuphela yabavoti baseprayimari abavumayo kwisivumelwano sohlahlo-lwabiwo mali. Ngaphezulu kwe-6-in-10 (62%) banoluvo lokuba iiDemokhrasi kwiCongress azikhange zonakalise ngokwaneleyo, ezifanayo nenani labavoti baseprayimari abathi bathetha okufanayo ngeRiphabhlikhi yaseRiphabhlikhi. Nangona kunjalo, uninzi (i-53%) ye-GOP yabavoti baseprayimari baziva ukuba iqela labo lisengxakini enkulu-ephindwe kabini kwinani labavoti base-Democratic abavakalelwa ngokufanayo ngendima yeqela labo kuthethathethwano lohlahlo-lwabiwo mali.
Inkqubo ye- IYunivesithi yaseMonmouth Poll yenziwa ngomnxeba ukusukela nge-29 ka-Okthobha ukuya nge-1 kaNovemba ngo-2015 ngabavoti abangama-403 baseNew Hampshire ekusenokwenzeka ukuba bavote kumabanga aphambili kamongameli. Isampulu inemida yempazamo ye-4.9 yepesenti. Uvoto lwenziwe liziko laseMonmouth leYunivesithi yokuVota kwiWest Long Branch
