UHillary Clinton ugcina ukukhokela ngaphezulu kukaDonald Trump kummelwane wasePennsylvania, nangona umda umncinci kunenyanga enye eyadlulayo, ngokwale mvakwemini IYunivesithi yaseMonmouth Poll.
I-poll ifumana uClinton nge-4-point edge phezu kweTrump, phantsi kwe-10 ekhokelela ngo-Oktobha kunye ne-8 ekhokelela ngo-Agasti. Kwangelo xesha, kugqatso lwe-Senate yase-US, umceli-mngeni we-Democratic u-Katie McGinty utsale phambili kwe-GOP u-Pat Toomey ngamanqaku ama-3. Umdyarho ubotshelelwe kwinyanga ephelileyo, ngelixa uMcGinty wayenamanqaku ama-4 akhokelayo ehlotyeni.
Phakathi kwabavoti base-Keystone State ekunokwenzeka ukuba bavote kunyulo luka-Mongameli ngo-Novemba, ama-48% ngoku axhasa uClinton kunye nama-44% abuyela kuTrump. Omnye u-3% uzimisele ukuvotela uLibertarian uGary Johnson kunye no-1% emva kukaJill Stein weGreen Party. Oku kuphawula ukuncipha kuka-Clinton ngama-50% ukuya kuma-40% ekhokelela kwinyanga ephelileyo kunye nango-Agasti wakhe ithuba elingama-48% ukuya kuma-40% ngaphezulu kukaTrump.
UClinton usakhokela, kodwa ugqatso luqinisiwe kwezi veki zine zidlulileyo. Kubonakala ngathi olu tshintsho lwalusebenza ngaphambiliNgoLwesihlanuIbhombu ye-FBI, ethe yanegalelo elincinci kuphela kolu nciphiso lupheleleyo, utshilo uPatrick Murray, umlawuli weZiko lokuVota laseMonmouth University elizimeleyo.
UMurray wenze olu phando emva kokuba iindaba zaqhekeka malunga nophando lwe-FBI lwee-imeyile ezintsha ngexesha likaClinton njengoNobhala Welizwe. Kuphela yi-4% yabavoti basePennsylvania abathi ezi ndaba zibangele ukuba batshintshe iingqondo malunga nokuba ngowuphi umgqatswa abaza kubaxhasa. Uninzi (89%) luthi olu phuculo lwamva nje alunampembelelo kwivoti yabo kwaye i-6% ayizazi iindaba. Phakathi kwabo batshintshe ivoti yabo, iTrump inexabiso elingaphantsi kwe-2: 1 inzuzo, okuthetha ukuba umda wevoti kamongameli oguqulweyo ungabi ngaphezulu kwepesenti enye ngokukodwa ngenxa yezi ndaba ziphukayo.
Umnyulwa weRiphabhlikhi uphinde wafumana inkxaso phakathi kwabavoti abamhlophe, ngakumbi phakathi kwabafazi, ukusukela ngo-Okthobha. Okwangoku ukhokela phakathi kwabo bonke abavoti abamhlophe nge-50% ukuya kwi-43%, efanayo ne-48% yakhe kwi-39% inzuzo ngo-Agasti. Nangona kunjalo, ivoti emhlophe yahlulwe nge-46% kuTrump kunye ne-45% kuClinton kwinyanga ephelileyo. Iindlela zikaTrump phakathi kwabafazi abamhlophe ama-45% ukuya kuma-48% kuClinton, kodwa oku kuphuculwe kakhulu ukusuka kwi-35% ukuya kwi-55% yeli qela kwinyanga ephelileyo. UTrump uyaqhubeka nokubamba inzuzo enkulu phakathi kwamadoda amhlophe- ama-55% ukuya kuma-37%, xa kuthelekiswa nama-57% ukuya kuma-35% ngo-Okthobha.
UClinton ukhokela phakathi kwabavoti abangamhlophe ngama-83% ukuya kwi-9%. Oku kungaphantsi kancinci kune-88% ukuya kwi-5% ekhokelayo phakathi kweli qela ngo-Okthobha kwaye i-90% ukuya kwi-5% ikhokele ngo-Agasti. Lo mahluko, nangona kunjalo, ungaphakathi komda wophando.
IPhiladelphia kunye namadlelo ayo kulapho ugqatso lwasePennsylvania kwilizwe lonke zihlala ziphumelela okanye zilahleka. UClinton uyaqhubeka nokwenza kakuhle kakhulu kwikona esempuma mpuma yelizwe. Ukhokela uTrump nge-62% ukuya kwi-29% yomda kwizithili ezisixhenxe zebandla ezibandakanya isixeko sasePhiladelphia kunye namadlelo aselumelwaneni. Oku kuphantse kwafana nokukhokelela ku-Okthobha kwe-62% ukuya kwi-30% kunye no-Agasti wakhe wakhokelela kuma-62% ukuya kuma-29%.
Ukusebenza okuphuculweyo kukaTrump kuqhutywa ziinzuzo ezinkulu kwinxalenye yasentshona yombuso, apho ngoku une-54% enkulu ukuya kuma-38% ekhokela ngaphezulu kukaClinton. Kwinyanga ephelileyo, uClinton wayenomda omncinci kakhulu we-45% ukuya kwi-42% entshona yePennsylvania, ngelixa uTrump ebambe i-47% ukuya kwi-40% ekhokelela apha ngo-Agasti. UTrump uyaqhubeka nokubamba i-56% ukuya kwi-40% kumantla mpuma nakumbindi wombuso, efanayo ne-55% ukuya kwi-38% ekhokele kwinyanga ephelileyo kwaye ishiye i-58% yayo ukuya kwi-28% ekhokelela kulo mmandla ngo-Agasti .
I-poll yafumanisa ukuba ukuthandwa nguClinton kuye kwanyanga kwinyanga ephelileyo ngelixa ukulinganisa kukaTrump kuye kwanyuka. Ngaphantsi kwaba-4 ku-10 abavoti basePennsylvania (36%) banoluvo oluqinisekileyo lukaClinton ngelixa ama-53% ebambe umbono ongathandekiyo kuye. Oku kuthelekiswa ne-41% elungileyo kunye ne-48% yokulinganisa okungathandekiyo ngo-Okthobha. Kuphela ngama-32% anoluvo oluvakalayo lukaTrump ngelixa i-54% inombono ongathandekiyo ngaye, kodwa oku kungcono kunenqanaba lakhe lika-Okthobha le-27% elungileyo kunye ne-60% engathandekiyo.
Ukujikela kugqatso lwe-Senate yase-US, owayesakuba ligosa likarhulumente u-Katie McGinty ngoku ukhokela u-GOP u-Pat Toomey nge-47% ukuya kwi-44%, kunye ne-3% yabavoti be-Keystone State abaxhasa i-Libertarian Edward Clifford. Umdyarho ubotshelelwe kwi-46% yomntu ngamnye otyunjwe kwiqela eliphambili kwinyanga ephelileyo, ngelixa uMcGinty ebekhokele nge-45% ukuya kwi-41% ngo-Agasti.
UMcGinty wenze iinzuzo kumazantsi mpuma karhulumente, ngoku ephethe i-57% ukuya kwi-34% ekhokelayo kulo mmandla xa kuthelekiswa ne-49% ukuya kwi-42% yomda ophelileyo kwinyanga ephelileyo. I-Toomey ikhokele i-54% ukuya kwi-40% kwinxalenye esempuma kunye nombindi wombuso, ngokufanayo kwi-54% ukuya kwi-40% ekhokelayo ngo-Okthobha. IRiphabhlikhi ifumene amandla kwinxalenye esentshona yelizwe apho uToomey ngoku akhokelela khona uMcGinty ngama-48% ukuya kuma-40%. Aba bagqatswa babini babebotshiwe kwi-45% kummandla ngamnye kwinyanga ephelileyo.
UToomey uyaqhubeka nokufumana amanqaku oxubeneyo emisebenzini yakhe - iipesenti ezingama-40 ziyayivuma kwaye iipesenti ezingama-37 ziyayivuma intsebenzo yakhe njengeSenator yase-US. Inqanaba lakhe lomsebenzi yayiyi-42% evunyiweyo ukuya kuma-38% engavunyelwanga ngo-Okthobha kwaye i-43% yamkela i-35% engavumi ngo-Agasti.
Abavoti bahlulwe ngokweembono zabo bobabini abagqatswa. I-Toomey ine-31% ethandekayo kunye ne-30% yokulinganisa okungathandekiyo, ephantse yafana ne-32% yakhe elungileyo kunye ne-30% yokufumana okungathandekiyo kwinyanga ephelileyo. UMcGinty une-27% elungileyo kwaye ama-28% akalunganga, nto leyo efanayo ngokufanayo ne-27% yakhe elungileyo kunye ne-29% yokufumana imeko engathandekiyo kwinyanga ephelileyo.
Inkqubo ye- IYunivesithi yaseMonmouth Poll yenziwa ngomnxeba ukusukela nge-29 ka-Okthobha ukuya nge-1 kaNovemba ngo-2016 kubahlali abangama-403 basePennsylvania abanokuvota kunyulo lukaNovemba. Isampulu inemida yempazamo ye-4.9 yepesenti. Uvoto lwenziwe liziko laseMonmouth kwiPolling Institute kwiWest Long Branch.
