UWASHINGTON, DC - DISEMBA 17: USen Marco Rubio (R-FL) uphendula isimemezelo sikaMongameli wase-US u-Barack Obama malunga nokuhlaziya imigaqo-nkqubo kubudlelwane base-US-Cuba ngoDisemba 17, 2014 eWashington, DC. URubio ubize uMongameli ngengxoxo embi kwaye wagxeka into awayibanga sisivumelwano ngaphandle kwentando yesininzi eCuba. (Ifoto ngu-TJ Kirkpatrick / Getty Izithombe) Thetha kwiiDemokhrasi malunga nokhuphiswano lukamongameli lonyaka ozayo kwaye uninzi lwabo luyavuma ukuba ngoobani kwabo baphikisana neRiphabhlikhi aboyikayo: I-Senator yaseFlorida uMarco Rubio.
IYunivesithi yanamhlanje yaseSuffolk / iUSA NAMHLANJE uvoto lwesizwe lutyhila ukuba banesizathu esivakalayo sokumoyika, nangona umntu ophikisana naye evela eFlorida engayibethi. Umda wempazamo ngaphezulu nangaphaya kweqela elinye.
Owayengunobhala welizwe u-Hillary Clinton kunye nosomashishini uDonald Trump bazinzile phambili kwimilo yabo yokutyumba abo kwiiveki ezisibhozo phambi kweekhokhasi zase-Iowa, ngokokuvota. Nangona kunjalo, ixesha likaDemokhrasi likaClinton elikhokelayo kumdlalo omnye nomnye ngokuchasene nabagqatswa be-GOP liye lonakala, kwaye isampulu encinci yokuvota ibonise ukuba isibini kwisithathu sabavoti bakaTrump baya kuqhubeka nokumxhasa njengomgqatswa ozimeleyo ukuba uza kuhamba IQela leRiphabhlikhi.
Ngaphandle kokukhokela ngokukhokela kwiintshaba zakhe zeDemokhrasi-uClinton (iipesenti ezingama-56), uSanders (iipesenti ezingama-29) kunye noMartin O'Malley (iipesenti ezi-4), ngeepesenti ezili-11 ezingagqitywanga- ugqatso luya luba namandla ngakumbi kuClinton kwintloko-kwintloko jikelele Umdlalo wonyulo kunye nabagqatswa abane abakhokelayo beRiphabhlikhi, ngokokuvota. Ngolunye lwale midlalo yomdlalo ubushushu obufileyo obunikwe umda wempazamo:
- UMarco Rubio (iipesenti ezingama-48) uphakamisa uClinton (iipesenti ezingama-45)
- UClinton (iipesenti ezingama-48) -ITrump (ipesenti engama-44)
- UClinton (ipesenti ye-46) -uBen Carson (iipesenti ezingama-45)
- UClinton (ipesenti engama-47) -uTed Cruz (iipesenti ezingama-45)
Umsantsa ophakathi kweembaleki zangaphambili zeDemokhrasi kunye nabagqatswa beRiphabhlikhi uvaliwe ukusukela ngoJulayi, xa i-Suffolk University-USA Today poll ibonise uClinton ekhokela uTrump ngamanqaku ali-17 kumdlalo omnye nomnye, iipesenti ezingama-51 ukuya kuma-34 eepesenti. Ngelo xesha, uBush wayeyimbangi yakhe esondeleyo. Ulandele i-senator yangaphambili ye-New York iipesenti ezingama-46 ukuya kwiipesenti ezingama-42, ngeepesenti ezili-13 ezingakhethi.
Okwangoku, uTrump ukhokele ngeepesenti ezingama-27 phakathi kwabavoti abaphambili beRiphabhlikhi / i-caucus, elandelwa ngu-Sen Ted Cruz (R-Texas) ngepesenti ye-17; USen Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) Kwipesenti ezili-16; uBen Carson othathe umhlala-phantsi kwi-neurosurgeon, kwiipesenti ezili-10; owayesakuba nguRhulumente waseFlorida uJeb Bush, ama-4 eepesenti; kunye no-Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.), U-Gov. wase-Ohio u-John Kasich, kunye no Gavana wase-New Jersey u-Chris Christie babambene nge-2%. Bonke abanye abaviwa bebonke bafikelela kwiipesenti ezi-3, kwaye iipesenti ezili-17 azichazwanga.
Icala leRiphabhlikhi liqala ukungcangcazela, ubuncinci kwinqanaba likazwelonke, utshilo uDavid Paleologos, umlawuli weZiko loPhando lwezoPolitiko leYunivesithi yaseSuffolk eBoston. Zombini iiSenator Cruz kunye neRubio zifuna nzima ukuba yiRiphabhlikhi enye eya kuTrump, kodwa kukho iipesenti ezilishumi elinesixhenxe ezingagqitywanga, ezigcina ucango luvulekele omnye wabaviwa abanedigital eyodwa ukuba benze i-Iowa okanye iNew Hampshire kwaye bagungqise ugqatso phezulu ngaphezulu.
I-Cruz yayilukhetho lwesibini oluphezulu (iipesenti ezingama-22) zabo bonke abaviwa, kulandelwa nguRubio (iipesenti ezili-15), kunye noCarson noTrump baboshwe ngepesenti ye-13. Uvavanyo lokuvota olukhethiweyo lwesibini luphawu olulungileyo lokuba abavoti beRiphabhlikhi banokuthi batshintshele kubo njengoko abagqatswa abancinci bephuma.
Iibhola ze-Rubio zithandeka
URubio, ngeli xesha, yayinguye kuphela umgqatswa ophambili kwiqela lezopolitiko elalinomlinganiso olungileyo (+5), kunye neepesenti ezingama-41 ezithandekayo ukuya kuma-36 epesenti. Abona bantu basondeleyo ngokuthandwa ngu-Mongameli u-Barack Obama (-1), u-Ben Carson (-3) kunye no-Bernie Sanders (-3). Kwabagqatswa abaseleyo, ukuthandwa kwe-Cruz kwaba (-9), uHillary Clinton (-15), kunye noDonald Trump (-30), umqondiso weepesenti ezingama-30 ezithandekayo kunye neepesenti ezingama-60 zokulinganisa okungathandekiyo.
Ukunyaniseka kuya kunamathela kwiTrump njengezimeleyo
Ngaphandle kwamanani athambileyo kaTrump phakathi kwabavoti bonyulo jikelele, ukulandela kwakhe kwiqela leRiphabhlikhi kuthembekile ngokuqatha. Xa abavoti bakaTrump babuzwa ukuba basaza kumvotela na njengomgqatswa ozimeleyo hayi njengeRiphabhlikhi, iipesenti ezingama-68 zathi ziya kumvotela, ngelixa iipesenti ezili-18 zingavumi, kwaye iipesenti ezili-11 zazingachazwanga. Ezi nkcukacha-manani zisekwe kwiseti engaphantsi kwe-100 yabavoti bebonke kwaye ke ngoko zithwele umda omkhulu kakhulu wempazamo kune-poll jikelele.
Ngaphandle kokufumana okungathandekiyo okuphezulu kubo bonke abavoti, uTrump ufumana eyona mali iphambili kutyalo-mali lwephulo: Uchithe imali encinci enika imbuyekezo enkulu kwiziko laseprayimari le-GOP, kwaye abalandeli bakhe abanyanisekileyo baya kulawula isiphumo sonyulo jikelele ukuba bebeza kusebenza njengezimeleyo, utshilo uPaleologos.
Indlela yokusebenza
Uvavanyo lwelizwe lonke lwabavoti abali-1 000 lwenziwa nge-2 kaDisemba ngo-2-6 kusetyenziswa udliwanondlebe olwenziwayo kwimizi apho abaphenduli babonakalise ukuba banakho okanye banako ukuvota kunyulo jikelele luka-2016. Umda wempazamo +/- 3 yeepesenti kwinqanaba leepesenti ezingama-95 zokuzithemba. Umda wempazamo kwiDemocratic primary / caucus subset yabantu abangama-363 abanokuba ngabavoti +/- 5.1 amanqaku eepesenti. Umda wempazamo kwisiseko seRiphabhlikhi / isiseko se-caucus sabangama-357 abanokuba ngabavoti +/- 5.2 yeepesenti. AmaMarginal kunye nedatha epheleleyo yokuwela umnqamlezo ithunyelwe kwiwebhusayithi yeZiko loPhando lwezoPolitiko laseSuffolk: www.kwinto.edu/SUPRC . Ngolwazi oluthe kratya, qhagamshelana noDavid Paleologos apha 781-290-9310 , dpaleologos@suffolk.edu .
