Ngelixa irhuluneli yangaphambili u-Jeb Bush yazisa ngokusesikweni ukuba ngumgqatswa namhlanje, nguFloridian kunye nosenator wase-US u-Marco Rubio obonakala ngathi ukonwabele kakhulu kwiiveki ezimbalwa ezidlulileyo. Xa bebuzwa ukuba bachaze amagama abo bangathanda ukumbona njengonyuliweyo weqela lika-Mongameli, iRiphabhlikhi kunye ne-Republican-abaxhasi abavotyiweyo bahlulwe phakathi komchazi uGqirha Ben Carson (11%), iRhuluneli yaseWisconsin uScott Walker (10%), uBush (9%) , URubio (9%), kunye nowayesakuba yiRhuluneli yase-Arkansas uMike Huckabee (8%). Olunye ukhetho lubandakanya uSenator waseKentucky uRand Paul (6%), uSenator waseTexas uTed Cruz (5%), iRhuluneli yaseNew Jersey uChris Christie (4%), owayesakuba yiRhuluneli yaseTexas uRick Perry (4%), owayesakuba nguSenator wasePennsylvania uRick Santorum (3%) , usomashishini uCarly Fiorina (2%), uSenator waseSouth Carolina uLindsey Graham (2%), kunye nosomashishini uDonald Trump (2%). IRhuluneli yaseLouisiana uBobby Jindal (1%), iRhuluneli yaseOhio uJohn Kasich (1%), kunye nowayesakuba yiRhuluneli yaseNew York uGeorge Pataki (0%) bajikeleza uluhlu. Akukho namnye kwaba bafundi amanqaku aphezulu kunokuba engachazwanga, yeyiphi iwotshi kwi-20%. Njengoko omnye umthathi-nxaxheba wathi, andazi nje ukuba bame phi kwimiba ebalulekileyo kum.
Xa kuthelekiswa nokuvota kwaseMonmouth kokugqibela okwenziwe ngo-Epreli, ukuma kukaCarson kunye noRubio kunyuke ngamanqaku ama-4, ngelixa abaviwa balandelayo behlile: I-Cruz (amanqaku ama-6), iTrump (amanqaku ama-5), kunye neBush (amanqaku ama-4). Inxalenye engachazwanga yonyulo lwe-GOP inyuke ngamanqaku ama-6.
Uya kuba nzima ukuba ujonge ezi ziphumo kwaye uchonge indawo ephezulu evelayo kwibala leRiphabhlikhi, kungasathethwa ke ngokubaleka ngaphambili, utshilo uPatrick Murray, umlawuli weZiko lokuVota iYunivesithi yaseMonmouth eWest Long Branch, NJ.
I-poll ifumene ukutshintsha okubonakalayo kumanqanaba athile abaviwa. Uninzi lwabavoti beRiphabhlikhi banoluvo (54%) oluqinisekileyo lukaMarco Rubio ngelixa i-13% ibambe into engathandekiyo. Oku kunyuke ukusuka kwiipesenti ezingama-41 kwaye i-18% ayithandeki ngo-Epreli. Ukulinganiswa kukaBen Carson kuma kwiipesenti ezingama-45 kwaye i-12% ayithandeki namhlanje, isuka kwi-39% iyathandeka kwaye i-16% ayithandeki ngo-Epreli. UCarly Fiorina ukwabone ukwanda kumanqaku akhe - ngoku ama-29% ayathandeka kwaye i-18% ayithandeki ukusuka kwi-18% iyathandeka kwaye i-20% ayithandi, nangona uninzi lwabavoti be-GOP bengenalo uluvo ngaye.
Abagqatswa abathathu babone ukwehla okukhulu kumanqaku abo kwezi nyanga zimbini zidlulileyo. Oku kubandakanya u-Jeb Bush - u-40% olungileyo no-35% wokufumana amanqaku angathandekiyo abonisa ukudibanisa ukusuka kwi-49% elungileyo kunye ne-31% yokufumana amanqaku angafumananga ngo-Epreli; URand Paul - okwangoku ekwi-39% iyathandeka kwaye i-24% ayifanelekanga xa kuthelekiswa ne-47% ethandekayo kunye ne-22% engathandekiyo kuphando lwangaphambili; kunye noChris Christie - beme ngama-26% abathandekayo nabangama-43% abangafumanekiyo xa kuthelekiswa nama-33% abathandwayo nabangama-42% abangafanelanga iinyanga ezimbini ezidlulileyo.
UJeb Bush wayefanele ukuba athathe iqonga nge-aura yothandwayo, kodwa iinombolo zakhe zovoto azixhasi oko. Umnyulwa we-GOP jikelele udikidiki kuye kwaye uninzi lwabavoti abalondolozayo banesimo esibi ngakumbi, utshilo uMurray.
Abanye abagqatswa abahluphekileyo kukungabikho komgangatho phakathi kweRiphabhlikhi kubandakanya uLindsey Graham kwi-17% evumayo kunye ne-34% engathandekiyo kunye noGeorge Pataki kwi-14% elungileyo kunye ne-29% engathandekiyo. Nangona kunjalo, uDonald Trump ngoyena mntu umbi phakathi kwabavoti be-GOP- ngama-20% kuphela abambe umbono olungileyo ngaye xa kuthelekiswa noninzi lwe-55% olunembono engathandekiyo.
UTrump ucwangciselwe ukubhengeza iinjongo zakhengolwesibini. Kukubheja okukhuselekileyo ukuba akuyi kubakho sijwili okanye ukutshixiza kwamazinyo phakathi kwabavoti ukuba uyala ukubabaza intsimi ye-GOP ngobukho bakhe, utshilo uMurray.
Olunye unyulo lwabagqatswa luhleli luhle kwezi nyanga zimbini zidlulileyo, kubandakanya uMike Huckabee (50% olungileyo ukuya kuma-20% ongathandekiyo), uTed Cruz (49% ukuya ku-17%), uRick Perry (45% ukuya ku-20%), uScott Walker (42%) ukuya kwi-12%), uRick Santorum (33% ukuya kuma-22%), kunye noBobby Jindal (27% ukuya ku-16%). UJohn Kasich ume malunga nama-20% alungileyo kwaye i-18% ayithandeki. Inkxaso yesiseko yinto ephambili ekuphumeleleni kukhuphiswano lokuqala lokutyumba. Ngalo mlinganiso, uCarson, uCruz, uHuckabee, uPerry, uRubio, kunye noWalker baqhuba kakuhle phakathi kwabavoti be-GOP abazichaza njengabaxhasi be-Tea Party.
Inkqubo ye- IYunivesithi yaseMonmouth Poll Ubuye wabuza abavoti beRiphabhlikhi ukuba imicimbi eyahlukeneyo ingayichaphazela njani ivoti yabo kwinkqubo yokutyumba. Ukhuseleko lwesizwe kunye nolawulo lwemipu zezona zinokwenzeka ukuba zisetyenziswe njengeemvavanyo ze-litmus phakathi kwemimandla emithandathu yovavanyo. Ngokukodwa, i-78% yabavoti be-GOP bathi bayakuxhasa kuphela umgqatswa weRiphabhlikhi ovumelana nabo kwimicimbi yezokhuseleko yesizwe, yi-17% kuphela eya kuthi ithathele ingqalelo ukuxhasa umgqatswa ongavumelaniyo nabo, kwaye yi-2% kuphela abathi lo mbandela awubalulekanga kangako. ivoti yabo. Ngokufanayo, i-71% yabavoti be-GOP bathi baya kuvotela kuphela umntu onoluvo lolawulo ngompu, ngelixa i-21% inokuthathela ingqalelo ukuxhasa umgqatswa abangavumelaniyo naye, kwaye yi-6% kuphela ethi lo mbandela awubalulekanga kubo.
Malunga nabavoti be-6-in-10 be-GOP (59%) bathi bayakuxhasa kuphela umgqatswa abavumelana naye malunga nomba wokufudukela kwelinye ilizwe, ngelixa i-30% iya kuthathela ingqalelo ukuxhasa umgqatswa abangavumelaniyo naye, kwaye i-8% kuphela ithi lo mbandela awubalulekanga ukuya ku. Ngokunjalo, iipesenti ezingama-58 ziya kuxhasa kuphela umgqatswa weRiphabhlikhi owabelana ngesikhundla sakhe kwiirhafu, ngelixa iipesenti ezingama-30 zinokuvotela umntu ezingavumelani naye ngalo mbandela, kwaye yi-8% kuphela ethi irhafu ayibalulekanga kubo.
Abavoti abambalwa be-GOP bathi ukukhupha isisu okanye imfundo iya kuba luvavanyo lwe-litmus ekukhetheni kwabo abakhethiweyo beqela le-2016. Ngaphantsi nje kwesiqingatha (48%) bathi bayakuxhasa kuphela umgqatswa ovumelana nabo ngokukhupha isisu, i-27% inokuxhasa umntu abangavumelani naye, kwaye i-19% ithi indawo yomntu okhupha isisu ayisiyonto ibalulekileyo kukhetho lwabo lokuvota. Okokugqibela, iipesenti ezingama-34 bathi baya kuvotela kuphela umviwa owabelana ngezimvo zakhe kwiCore Common, i-28% ithi bayakuthathela ingqalelo umntu abangafani naye kulo mbandela, kwaye ama-25% athi ayisiyiyo yonke into ebalulekileyo kukhetho Ukutyunjwa kwe-GOP.
Ezi zikhundla zikwimeko efanayo ngokufanayo nokuba zithini na ezopolitiko, ngaphandle kokukhetha. I-Conservatives eyomeleleyo (i-64%) inokwenzeka ngakumbi kunabanye abantu baseRiphabhlikhi ukuba bathi isikhundla somgqatswa sokuqhomfa siya kuba sisaphuli-mthetho kubo.
Ukhuseleko lwesizwe luzakubalasela ekuhleleni intsimi ye-GOP ngo-2016 kunokuba kunjalo kunyulo oludlulileyo, ngelixa imicimbi yezentlalo inokuthatha isihlalo esingasemva, utshilo uMurray. Esi inokuba sesinye sezizathu zokuba uMarco Rubio, othe wenza iingxelo zomgaqo-nkqubo wamanye amazwe kutshanje, ubonile ukuphakama kwakhe kwaye nongeneleli kwiRandi uPaul uthathe umlinganiso wakhe.
Inkqubo ye- IYunivesithi yaseMonmouth Poll yenziwa ngomnxeba ukusukela nge-11 ukuya kwi-14 kuJuni ngo-2015 nabantu abadala abayi-1,002 eMelika. Olu khululo lusekwe kwisampulu yabavoti ababhalisiweyo abangama-351 abazichaza njengamaRiphabhlikhi okanye abathembele kwiQela leRiphabhlikhi. Isampulu yokuvota inemida yempazamo yeepesenti ezi-5.2. I-poll yenziwa yi-Monmouth University Polling Institute kwi-West Long Branch, NJ.
