UMongameli wase-US uDonald Trump.MANDEL NGAN / AFP / Getty Izithombe Ukuba ulandela iipota, uyazi ukuba amanani kaMongameli uDonald Trump akwimo entle. Kodwa ngokweemodeli eziphuhliswe zizazinzulu zopolitiko, ziqinisekisiwe ngoqikelelo oluninzi lwangaphambili, amathuba okonyulwa kukamongameli awalunganga kakhulu. Umbuzo uza kuhla malunga nokuba siyazithemba na iindlela zokuvota namhlanje, okanye indlela abantu abacinga ngayo ngonyulo kule minyaka ilikhulu okanye nangaphezulu idlulileyo.
Ngaphandel kwe Iingxelo zikaRasmussen , Iipolls zibonisa umongameli ngamanqanaba aphezulu okungavumi kunemilinganiselo yokuvunywa, amanani amabi athe abetha uTrump kulo lonke ixesha lakhe e-ofisini. Ngapha koko, uhlala esemva ekhokela iiDemokhrasi njengoJoe Biden kunye UBernie Sanders kwilizwe lonke, nkqu nakwiindawo zemfazwe. Nokuba abagqatswa abakumgangatho osezantsi njengoKamela Harris, uPete Buttigieg no-Elizabeth Warren banjalo ukunika uTrump ukuba abalekele imali yakhe Kumazwe waphumelela ngokulula kwi-2016, njengeNorth Carolina kunye neTexas.
Bhalisela iNcwadana yezepolitiki yaBakhangeli
Kwiveki ephelileyo Amanani okubonisana kusasa zazimbi nangakumbi kumongameli weRiphabhlikhi. Ukujonga ukuvavanywa kukaTrump-to-dissorval ratings, unokumfumana ngokukhululekileyo ngaphambili (ngamanqaku angama-20 +) eAlabama naseWyoming. Olunye ukhokelo lwamanani aphindwe kabini luse-Idaho, eLouisiana, eMississippi, eSouth Carolina, eTennessee, eKentucky naseWest Virginia. Uphambili e-Oklahoma, e-Arkansas, e-South Dakota nase-Missouri, kodwa kunjalo. Nditsho naseIndiana, Utah, Texas, Georgia naseFlorida, kukuphosa phezulu. Kuyafana naseAlaska, Montana, North Dakota naseNebraska. Uyaphulukana eMantla Carolina, eVirginia, eOhio, eArizona nasePennsylvania. Amanye amazwe anemva ngamanani aphindwe kabini, nkqu nawo awaphumelela ngo-2016 (Iowa, Michigan, Wisconsin).
Inzululwazi yezoPolitiko inika uMongameli uTrump Ithuba
Kodwa libali elahlukileyo kwezinye iimodeli zesayensi yezopolitiko. Aba, njengoAllan Lichtman Izitshixo zeNdlu eNtshonalanga: Isikhokelo soMlilo sokuQikelela uMongameli olandelayo , bonisa ukuba uMongameli uTrump ukwimo entle, nokubheja nkqu neminye iminyaka emine.
Ngokuqhelekileyo, uLichtman kunye nososayensi waseRussia, basebenzisa iindlela ezifanayo nokuqikelela iinyikima, bavelise imodeli echaza izinto ezikhokelela Unyulo ngalunye lonyulo luka-Mongameli ukusuka ku-1860 ukuya ku-1980 . Emva koko, basebenzise le fomyula ukuqikelela unyulo ngalunye ukusukela ngo-1984 ukuya ku-2012.
Lichtman ngokwenene waxela kwangaphambili ukuba uTrump uza kuphumelela Ngo-2016. Kukho umqolomba, njengoko uTrump engakhange ayiphumelele ivoti ethandwayo, nangona wayethathe iKholeji yoNyulo. Ngapha koko, imodeli yaxela kwangaphambili ukuba uGore uza kuphumelela ivoti ethandwayo ngo-2000, nto leyo awayenzayo. Kodwa kwakhona, i-GOP yayingumnini weKholeji yoNyulo.
Ke zeziphi izitshixo zokuphumelela kwevoti ethandwayo? Nazi i-13 zethamsanqa ezibonelelwa nguLichtman.
Igunya leqela: Emva konyulo lwaphakathi enyakeni, iqela elisesihlalweni liphethe izihlalo ezininzi kwiNdlu yabaMeli baseMelika kunasemva konyulo lwaphakathi enyakeni.
Ukhuphiswano: Akukho khuphiswano lubalulekileyo lokuchongwa kweqela elisesikhundleni.
Ubume: Umgqatswa ophetheyo ngumongameli ohleli phantsi.
Iqela lesithathu: Akukho mntu ubalulekileyo wesithathu okanye iphulo elizimeleyo.
Uqoqosho lwexesha elifutshane: Uqoqosho alukho kwimeko yokudodobala ngexesha lephulo lonyulo.
Uqoqosho lwexesha elide: Ukukhula koqoqosho ngokwenyani komntu ngamnye kwikota nganye kuyalingana okanye kudlulile kuthetha ukukhula phakathi kweekota ezimbini ezidlulileyo.
Utshintsho loMgaqo-nkqubo: Ulawulo olusesandleni lubangela utshintsho olukhulu kumgaqo-nkqubo wesizwe.
Uqhushululu ekuhlaleni: Akukho zidubedube zentlalo eziqhubekayo ngexesha lekota.
Ihlazo: Ulawulo olusezikhundleni aluchaphazwanga sisikhalazo esikhulu.
Ukusilela kwamanye amazwe / kwezomkhosi: Ulawulo olusezikhundleni alunasiphene sikhulu kwimicimbi yezangaphandle okanye yezomkhosi.
Impumelelo yamanye amazwe / yamajoni: Ulawulo olusezikhundleni lufumana impumelelo enkulu kwimicimbi yezangaphandle okanye yezomkhosi.
I-Charisma ebambeleyo: Umgqatswa weqela elisesikhundleni ubambekile okanye ligorha lesizwe.
Umceli mngeni uCharisma: Umgqatswa weqela elicel'umngeni akango charismatic okanye iqhawe lesizwe.
Ngaba iTrump iya kuphinda ichongwe ngo-2020?
Ngokuka-Lichtman, umceli-mngeni uza kufuna isithandathu okanye nangaphezulu ukuba abe bubuxoki ukuphumelela i-Ofisi eLawulayo ye-White House. Ukuba zintlanu okanye zimbalwa kuphela ezingezizo, lelinye igama likaTrump.
Nazi iindlela zokunqoba kukaMongameli okuyiyo:
- Igunya leqela: Emva konyulo lwaphakathi enyakeni, iqela elisesihlalweni liphethe izihlalo ezininzi kwiNdlu yabaMeli baseMelika kunasemva konyulo lwaphakathi enyakeni. BUBUXOKI
- Ihlazo: Ulawulo olusezikhundleni aluchaphazwanga sisikhalazo esikhulu. BUBUXOKI
- Uqhushululu ekuhlaleni: Akukho zidubedube zentlalo eziqhubekayo ngexesha lekota. BUBUXOKI
- I-Charisma ebambeleyo: Umgqatswa weqela elisesikhundleni ubambekile okanye ligorha lesizwe. BUBUXOKI
Nazi iindlela zokunqoba kukaMongameliTumnqwazi uthathelwa ingqalelo uyinyani:
- Ubume: Umgqatswa ophetheyo ngumongameli ohleli phantsi. YINYANISO
- Umceli mngeni uCharisma: Umgqatswa weqela elicel'umngeni akango charismatic okanye iqhawe lesizwe. YINYANISO
- Uqoqosho lwexesha elide: Ukukhula koqoqosho ngokwenyani komntu ngamnye kwikota nganye kuyalingana okanye kudlulile kuthetha ukukhula phakathi kweekota ezimbini ezidlulileyo. YINYANISO
Nazi iindlela zokunqoba kukaMongameliTumnqwazi awuphelelanga, apho siseza kubona okuza kwenzeka:
- Ukhuphiswano: Akukho khuphiswano lubalulekileyo lokuchongwa kweqela elisesikhundleni. YINYANISO KAKHULU
- Iqela lesithathu: Akukho mntu ubalulekileyo wesithathu okanye iphulo elizimeleyo. YINYANISO KAKHULU
- Uqoqosho lwexesha elifutshane: Uqoqosho alukho kwimeko yokudodobala ngexesha lephulo lonyulo. YINYANISO KAKHULU
- Utshintsho loMgaqo-nkqubo: Ulawulo olusesandleni lubangela utshintsho olukhulu kumgaqo-nkqubo wesizwe. BUBUXOKI Kude lee
- Ukusilela kwamanye amazwe / kwezomkhosi: Ulawulo olusezikhundleni alunasiphene sikhulu kwimicimbi yezangaphandle okanye yezomkhosi. YINYANISO KAKHULU
- Impumelelo yamanye amazwe / yamajoni: Ulawulo olusezikhundleni lufumana impumelelo enkulu kwimicimbi yezangaphandle okanye yezomkhosi. BUBUXOKI Kude lee
Njengoko ubona, ugqatso lusondele kakhulu kubaDemokhrasi kunokuba banokuqonda, ukuba le modeli yembali ichanekile. Ukuza kuthi ga ngoku, akukho mceli mngeni kwiqela lakhe. Siza kubona ukuba iRhuluneli uWilliam Weld ufumana naluphi na uhlobo lokutsalwa, kodwa akunakulindeleka ukuba enze njalo. Amaqela esithathu anokuba sengozini yokulimaza abaviwa beDemokhrasi; I-leftist iyakwenzakalisa ukutyunjwa kweBiden, kanye njengokuba ikhulu leminyaka lingalijongela phantsi iphulo leSanders.
Ukuza kuthi ga ngoku, uqoqosho alukangenanga kuqoqosho. Ukuba ikwenzile njalo, inokuthi ixhase unyulo kwiiDemokhrasi. Ngokufanayo, iiDemokhrasi zinokuxhomekeka kwinto yokuba uTrump akakhange amisele utshintsho lomgaqo-nkqubo omkhulu; ukuncitshiswa kwerhafu, ukungahoywa kakhulu yi-GOP kunyulo luka-2018, kubonakala ngathi kulungele ukuhlawula iRiphabhlikhi iivoti ezithile.
Ewe umongameli angalufumana uloyiso olukhulu kumgaqo-nkqubo wezangaphandle, njengoxolo neNyakatho Korea, isivumelwano sezorhwebo sase-US-China, okanye uhlaziyo kwi-NAFTA. Ke kwakhona, unokufumana ubunzima ngokulula kumgaqo-nkqubo wezangaphandle, esenza olu luhlu luhlambe.
Ngokuqinisekileyo akucaci nokuba uTrump uza kuwufumana na umgaqo-nkqubo okanye ukuphepha ukudodobala koqoqosho, okanye abone into eyenzekayo kwimicimbi yamanye amazwe. Kodwa ngaphandle kwayo, ezo zingangcono zingcono kuye kwimodeli kaLichtman kunokuba zikwivoti yanamhlanje, ethetha into ebuhlungu. Mhlawumbi iphulo likaTrump linokunqwenela ukufunda ezi ngcamango zesayensi yezopolitiko ukubona ukuba abongameli babekhethwe njani ngokwembali, okanye baphinde bakhethwa.
UJohn A. Tures nguprofesa wesayensi yezopolitiko eLaGrange College eLaGrange, eGeorgia-funda ibali lakhe elipheleleyo apha.
