UTrump okwangoku kuphela komhlangano wokudibana nommeli eAlabama.
Kwicala leDemokhrasi, uHillary Clinton ubambe indawo ekhokelayo eAlabama, kodwa uBernie Sanders (ofote) unomphetho omncinci e-Oklahoma.
- Amabanga aphantsi eRiphabhlikhi -
UDonald Trump uphethe izikhokelo eziphindwe kabini kuzo zombini ezi Super ngoLwesibini. E-Alabama, unenkxaso ye-42% yabavoti bokuqala be-GOP, xa kuthelekiswa ne-19% kaMarco Rubio, i-16% yeTed Cruz, iipesenti ezili-11 zikaBen Carson, kunye neepesenti ezi-5 zikaJohn Kasich. I-Trump inenzuzo encinci e-Oklahoma kunye nenkxaso evela kuma-35% abavoti, xa kuthelekiswa nama-23% e-Cruz, i-22% ye-Rubio, i-8% ye-Kasich kunye ne-7% ye-Carson.
Ngokomgaqo wolwabiwo lwabathunywa kuwo omabini la mazwe, nawuphi na umgqatswa ogqithe kuma-50% evoti iyonke unikwa bonke abathunywa kwilizwe liphela. Ngaphandle koko, abathunywa banikezelwa ngokulinganayo kuye nawuphi na umgqatswa ohlangabezana nomyinge omncinci wenkxaso- eyi-20% e-Alabama kunye ne-15% e-Oklahoma. Abathunywa abathathu kwisithili ngasinye babelwe ngendlela eyahlukileyo. Iziphumo zovoto zibonisa ukuba uTrump usekhondweni lokuthatha malunga neepesenti ezingama-40 zabathunywa abazokwabiwa e-Oklahoma, kunye neCroz kunye neRubio bohlula intsalela. E-Alabama, uTrump ukwinqanaba lokuthabatha naphi na ukusuka kwi-60% ukuya kwi-85% yabathunywa, ngokuxhomekeke ekubeni ingaba abanye abagqatswa bayahlangabezana na nomda wolwabiwo.
Kukho ithuba elingaphandle lokuba nguTrump kuphela ogqiba ukudibana nommeli womthunywa eAlabama. Kodwa nokuba uRubio noCruz bayafaneleka, kujongeka ngathi uTrump angabamba ngokulula uninzi lwabathunywa abanikezelwa ngala mazwe mabini, utshilo uPatrick Murray, umlawuli weZiko elizimeleyo lePolling Institute yaseMonmouth.
Olunye uphawu lokubonisa kukaTrump olunomdla kukuba ubambe indawo ephambili phakathi kwabavoti e-Alabama - i-43% xa kuthelekiswa ne-18% yeRubio kunye ne-15% ye-Cruz. Uboshwe ngokusisiseko kunye ne-Cruz phakathi kweli qela e-Oklahoma-29% xa kuthelekiswa ne-28% ye-Cruz kunye ne-21% yeRubio. Abavoti beVangeli benza iipesenti ezingama-77 zabavoti eAlabama kunye nama-65% e-Oklahoma.
Ngaphezulu kwe-4-in-10 kunokwenzeka ukuba abavoti baseRiphabhlikhi base-Alabama (43%) nase-Oklahoma (44%) bathi bagqitywe ngokupheleleyo kukhetho lwabo lomgqatswa. Oku kubandakanya iipesenti ezi-1 esele bavote ngokungavoti e-Alabama kunye ne-7% abaye basebenzisa ithuba lokuvota kwangoko e-Oklahoma. Uninzi lwabavoti bakaTrump bathi bavalele ukhetho lwabo-60% eAlabama kunye nama-60% e-Oklahoma.
Ukuba yehla kumdyarho wabantu abathathu, uTrump ebengazukuqhubeka nokubamba amazwe omabini. Kukhuphiswano ngokuchasene nababini ababekhuphisana naye, uTrump wayeza kufumana i-46% yeAlabama ivoti ukuya kwi-27% yeRubio kunye neepesenti ezingama-20 kwiCroz. E-Oklahoma, uya kuba ne-36% yevoti kwi-28% yeRubio kunye ne-27% ye-Cruz.
Iphulo likaTrump lilawule izihloko kule mpelaveki ngokuvunyelwa kowayesakuba yimbangi yakhe, irhuluneli yaseNew Jersey uChris Christie. Ngelixa eli nyathelo liseta amajelo eendaba, ayibanga nefuthe kakhulu kubavoti. Malunga nesithathu kwisine (74% eAlabama nase-Oklahoma) bathi ukuvunywa kukaChristie akunampembelelo kukhetho lwabo lokuvota. Intsalela yahlulwe phakathi ithi yenza ukuba babe nakho ukuxhasa iTrump- iipesenti ezili-14 eAlabama kunye neepesenti ezili-15 e-Oklahoma- okanye besithi ibenza banciphe ukuxhasa iTrump- 9% eAlabama kunye ne-10% e-Oklahoma.
- IDemocratic primary -
Kukhuphiswano lweDemokhrasi, uHillary Clinton ngoku uphethe i-71% ukuya kwi-23% ekhokela uBernie Sanders eAlabama. E-Oklahoma, nangona kunjalo, iSanders ine-48% ukuya kwi-43% kumda weClinton. Oku kwahluke kakhulu kwiziphumo zala mazwe mabini kwiminyaka esibhozo eyadlulayo. Ngo-2008, uClinton waphulukana neAlabama waya kuBarack Obama ngamanqaku ali-14, kodwa waphumelela e-Oklahoma ngamanqaku angama-24 asempilweni.
Umahluko ophambili phakathi kwala mazwe mabini linani labavoti abambalwa kwilizwe ngalinye. E-Oklahoma, iipesenti ezingama-75 zabavoti beDemokhrasi kwivoti yaseMonmouth ngabantu abamhlophe abangabemi baseSpain. E-Alabama, elo nani lingama-42% kuphela, ngelixa uninzi (53%) lumnyama.
USanders ukhokela uClinton phakathi kwabavoti abamhlophe e-Oklahoma ngama-48% ukuya kuma-41%, kodwa iindlela zaseAlabama zinama-37% ukuya kuma-59% kuClinton. Ukukhokelwa okubalulekileyo kukaClinton phakathi kwabavoti abamhlophe eAlabama kwandiswa yi-80% ukuya kwi-12% ebonisa phakathi kwabavoti abamnyama apho.
Elona thuba lilungileyo leSanders libonakala ngathi likwiindawo ezinabonyulwa abaninzi abamhlophe beDemokhrasi. Ngelishwa kuye, ezona ndawo zityebileyo ze-Super ngoLwesibini zithi zinamanani abalulekileyo abavoti abambalwa, utshilo uMurray.
Isiqingatha sabangabavoti baseDemokhrasi abasisiseko bathi bagqitywe ngokupheleleyo kukhetho lwabo lomgqatswa - iipesenti ezingama-51 eAlabama kunye nama-52% e-Oklahoma. Abavoti bakaClinton banokwenzeka ngakumbi kunabaxhasi bakaSanders kuwo omabini la mazwe ukuba ingxelo yabo ivaliwe.
I-poll ikwafumene ukuba abavoti kuwo omabini la mazwe balindele ukuba uClinton uza kuthi ekugqibeleni aphume kweli xesha lokuqala njengonyulwa we-Democratic Republic ka-2016- ama-75% e-Alabama kunye nama-66% e-Oklahoma.
Inkqubo ye- IYunivesithi yaseMonmouth Poll yenziwa ngomnxeba ukusukela nge-25 ukuya ku-28 kaFebruwari, ngo-2016 kubavoti abanokubakho kumongameli wokuqala weRiphabhlikhi e-Alabama (n = 450) nase-Oklahoma (n = 403) kunye nabavoti abaza kuba kukhetho loongameli be-Democratic e-Alabama (n = 300) nase-Oklahoma (n = 300). Isampulu yaseRiphabhlikhi yesampulu yokuvota ephambili inephutha le-4.6 yeepesenti e-Alabama kunye neepesenti ezi-4.9 e-Oklahoma. Isampulu yokuvota yedemokhrasi enokwenzeka ukuba inesiphene se-+5.7 yepesenti e-Alabama kunye neepesenti ezi -5.7 e-Oklahoma. Uvoto lwenziwe liziko lokuvota iYunivesithi yaseMonmouth eWest Long Branch, NJ.
