Iqela leQhinga leBenenson ngo-Matshi 18 poll elithunyelwe ngumanyano lwabasebenzi kwaye lasasazwa eStatehouse ngoMvulo phakathi kwabaphathiswa beDemocratic Party babonisa uninzi lweqela elinamathele kumgaqo wamanqaku amabini ekhokela i-GOP ezingqondweni zabavoti baseNew Jersey.
Ngelixa iinkokheli zeDemokhrasi zishukuma phakathi kwenzwane nozwane esithendeni kunye noRhulumente waseRiphabhlikhi uChris Christie malunga nomhlala-phantsi kunye nohlaziyo lwezibonelelo kunye nohlahlo-lwabiwo mali, abavoti beDemokhrasi kunye nabavoti abangafezekanga bobabini bathi kubaluleke kakhulu ukukhusela izinto eziphambili njengezikolo, amapolisa kunye nabacimi-mlilo kunokuba basike Inkcitho karhulumente. Iidemokhrasi zikhetha ukukhusela izinto eziphambili ngokubaluleka kunokusika inkcitho ngurhulumente ngakwinqanaba elinamanqaku angama-60, ngelixa izigqibo ezingathandekiyo zithanda ingxoxo ephambili ngamanqaku ama-5.
Nalu unyulo olufunyenwe EzopolitikoNJ.com :
Amalungu eDemokhrasi kwiNdlu yowiso-mthetho yaseNew Jersey anezizathu ezininzi zokuba axhalabele unyulo oluzayo. Eyona nto iphambili kubo, nangona kunjalo, kufanelekile ukuba babhenele kubavoti abaya kuthi beve iingxoxo zabo. Okwangoku, iipesenti ezingama-40 zabavoti baka-2011 abathi bazokuvotela abagqatswa beDemokhrasi kwindlu yowiso-mthetho (inqaku elinemilinganiselo emi-2 elikhokelayo kwiriphabliki). Kwaye ezinye iipesenti ezingama-22 azikacaci. Ngelixa iRhuluneli uChristie ikonwabele ngokucacileyo ukutshata ixesha elide, ukuthandwa kwakhe khange kuguqulelwe ngokupheleleyo kwiivoti zabagqatswa beRiphabhlikhi kwivoti ka-Novemba. Ngapha koko, uninzi lwabavoti oluza kuvota ngeDemokhrasi, kwaye inani elininzi labavoti abangagqitywanga abathengiswa kwiindawo eziphambili ze-ajenda kaChristie. La maqela kufuneka athathwe njengeqela eliphambili lamaDemokhrasi ukuba athethe kwiinyanga ezizayo, kwaye akunakulindelwa ukuba aphumelele ngeqonga elilandela nje i-ajenda kaChristie.
IDEMOKRASI QALA NGESISEKO SE-40%; Iipesenti ezingama-22 azigqitywanga
Kwilizwe liphela, abaDemokhrasi okwangoku babambe ukukhokela okuncinci ngaphezulu kweRiphabhlikhi kwivoti yowiso-mthetho. Xa kunokwenzeka ukuba abavoti baka-2011 babuzwe ukuba ngubani oza kuvotela indawo yabo, umgqatswa weDemokhrasi ukhokela umgqatswa weRiphabhlikhi ngamanqaku ama-2 ukuya kuma-40 ukuya kuma-36 (44-42 xa kufakwa ii-leaners). Isiseko seDemokhrasi siphantse sixhase abagqatswa babo njengamaRiphabhlikhi, kunye namaDemokhrasi abhalisiweyo axhasa abagqatswa beDemokhrasi ngama-70 epesenti, ngelixa amaRiphabhlikhi abhalisiweyo exhasa amaRiphabhlikhi ngama-73 epesenti. Amalungu eManyano, icandelo eliphambili lesiseko kunyulo lowiso-mthetho, ahlala eqinile kwiDemokhrasi: Amalungu eManyano akhetha umgqatswa weDemokhrasi kwiRiphabhlikhi ngama-58% -32%.
Iidemokhrasi zibambe zikhokelela kumacandelwana amancinci emveli, ukuphumelela abafazi ngamanqaku ayi-7, abavoti abazizityebi (<$75K/year) by 11 points and African Americans by an 89%-6% margin. Democrats are strongest in the North-Central region (+37), and the Northeast (-5), Central (+7) and Southern (-6) regions can all be considered battlegrounds.
| Zonke | Isini | Uhlanga | Umbutho weqela | Ingeniso | Ummandla | Umanyano | |||||||||||
| M | F | mhlophe | AA | Inkqubo ye- | Ind | Impendulo | <$75K | $ 75K + | NW | UKUZALWA | I-NC | C | S | Ewe | Hayi | ||
| Umahluko | +2 | -5 | +8 | -Shumi elinanye | +81 | +59 | -5 | -69 | +11 | -3 | -17 | -5 | +37 | +7 | -8 | +32 | -6 |
| Idemokhrasi | 40 | 35 | 44 | 33 | 87 | 70 | 3. 4 | 4 | 47 | 39 | 31 | 36 | 60 | 42 | 3. 4 | 58 | 35 |
| IRiphabhlikhi | 38 | 40 | 36 | 44 | 6 | Shumi elinanye | 39 | 73 | 36 | 42 | 48 | 41 | 2. 3 | 35 | 42 | 26 | 41 |
| Iqela lesithathu | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | Mbini | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Andiqinisekanga | 22 | 24 | 19 | 22 | 6 | 18 | 26 | 2. 3 | 17 | 19 | amashumi amabini ananye | 22 | Shumi elinantlanu | 2. 3 | 2. 3 | 16 | 2. 3 |
IIDEMOKRASIKI NOKUNGAQINISEKISIYO ABAVOTI 'BONA IMISEBENZI, HAYI UHLAHLO LWABIWO MALI, NJENGOKO KUPHAMBILI
Xa kuziwa kubavoti abangacacanga kunye nabavoti beDemokhrasi, iRiphabhlikhi kunye noChristie benze ukuvulwa ngokukhokelela kuhlahlo-lwabiwo mali lukarhulumente njengomba wabo ophambili. Inyaniso,imisebenzi ibaluleke ngaphezu kohlahlo-lwabiwo mali kubavoti beDemokhrasi nabangachazwanga abanokwenzeka.Iidemokhrasi zibeka imfundo njengeyesibini (i-24%) eyona nto ibaluleke kakhulu kwimithetho yowiso-mthetho ekufuneka ijongane nayo, kwaye uhlahlo-lwabiwo mali lukarhulumente luza okwesithathu, lubotshelelwe kwiirhafu (i-12% inye). Ngelixa abavoti abangachazwanga bebeka uhlahlo-lwabiwo mali lwesibini, bambalwa kakhulu abachaziweyo kunabavoti beRiphabhlikhi abathi ngumba obaluleke kakhulu. (Iipesenti ezingama-26 zigqityiwe vs iipesenti ezingama-40%).
Eyona nto ibalulekileyo- Abavoti ka-2011
| Yeyiphi kwezi zinto zilandelayo onokuyithetha ukuba yeyona nto ibaluleke kakhulu ekufuneka igqwese kuyo umthetho wezomthetho waseNew Jersey? | ||||
| IkwaBonke | Zonke | Vota kwi '11 Ballot | ||
| Idemokhrasi | IRiphabhlikhi | Andiqinisekanga | ||
| Uqoqosho nemisebenzi | 29 | 36 | Amashumi amabini | 35 |
| Uhlahlo-lwabiwo mali kunye nenkcitho | 26 | 12 | 40 | 26 |
| Irhafu | 17 | 12 | 25 | Shumi elinanye |
| Imfundo | 13 | 24 | 3 | 12 |
| Ukhathalelo lwempilo | 7 | 8 | 5 | 7 |
| Ulwaphulo-mthetho kunye nokhuseleko loluntu | 1 | Mbini | 1 | 0 |
| Ipenshoni | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Indalo esingqongileyo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Ukungena ngokungekho mthethweni | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Zonke ezi zingentla | 5 | 5 | 3 | 8 |
| Andiqinisekanga | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Ngokuhambelana neziphumo malunga nembono yabo yezona zinto zibalulekileyo, abavoti beDemokhrasi kunye nabavoti abangaqinisekanga bobabini bayatshokubaluleke kakhulu ukukhusela izinto eziphambili ngokubaluleka njengezikolo, amapolisa kunye nabacimi-mlilo kunokunciphisa inkcitho karhulumente.Iidemokhrasi zikhetha ukukhusela izinto eziphambili ngokubaluleka kunokusika inkcitho ngurhulumente ngakwinqanaba elinamanqaku angama-60, ngelixa izigqibo ezingathandekiyo zithanda ingxoxo ephambili ngamanqaku ama-5.
Eyona nto ibaluleke kakhulu -Khusela izinto eziPhambili ngokubaluleka nxamnye nokusika inkcitho
| Zonke | Vota kwi '11 Ballot | |||
| Idemokhrasi | IRiphabhlikhi | Andiqinisekanga | ||
| Umahluko | +6 | +60 | -Amashumi amahlanu | +5 |
| Ukukhuselaizinto ezibalulekileyonjengezikolo, kunye neenkonzo zokhuselo loluntu ezifana namapolisa nabacimi-mlilo. | 51 | 79 | 2. 3 | 49 |
| Ukusikainkcithongurhulumente welizwe | Isine | 19 | 73 | 44 |
| Andiqinisekanga | 4 | Mbini | 3 | 6 |
ABAVOTI BEDEMOKHRASI NOKUNGAQINISEKISIYO BASAQHUBEKA NGOKUQINILEYO KWI-PRO-UNION
Irhuluneli uChristie kunye namaRiphabhlikhi kwindlu yowiso-mthetho baxakekile bezama ukwenza imibutho yabasebenzi kunye namalungu abo ukuba babe ngabakhweli kwiingxaki zohlahlo-lwabiwo mali lukarhulumente. Kodwa idatha iphakamisa ukuba esi sisicwangciso esinokuthi sibabuyisele kakubi kunyulo luka-2011.Iiyuniyoni ziyathandeka kubavoti beDemokhrasi ngamanqaku angama-50 omnatha okanye nangaphezulu kuxhomekeke kumagama ombuzo.Phakathi kwabavoti abangathathwanga isigqibo, i-34% inembonakalo entle yemibutho yabasebenzi, i-38% yemibutho yootitshala kunye ne-44% iyathandeka kwimibutho yabasebenzi bakarhulumente. Ngapha koko, abezopolitiko abangaphumeleliyo ukuzahlula kwiindawo ze-ajenda kaChristie banokuba sengozini. Umzekelo,konkeAbavoti basemngciphekweni wokutyhola imali engaphantsi kwengxowa-mali yomhlala-phantsi koosopolitiki abadlulise ukususwa kwerhafu kwabo bazizityebi endaweni yokufaka isandla kwingxowa-mali yomhlala-phantsi karhulumente.
Ukuthandeka kweManyano-Ngokuvota ngo-2011
| IkwaBonke | % Iyonke iyathandeka /% Iyonke ayithandeki | |||
| Zonke | Vota kwi '11 Ballot | |||
| Idemokhrasi | IRiphabhlikhi | Andiqinisekanga | ||
| Imibutho yabasebenzi bakarhulumente | Ngama-45/37 | 71/13 | 19/65 | 44/34 |
| Imibutho yabasebenzi yootitshala | Ngama-45/42 | 78/11 | 13/76 | 38/37 |
| Imibutho yabasebenzi | 44/35 | 71/11 | 22/59 | 34/36 |
Bobabini abavoti beDemokhrasi kunye nabavoti abangachazwanga bathi imibutho yabasebenzi yinto elungileyo kwaye bayaqinisekisa ukuba abaqeshi banikezela ngemivuzo elungileyo, izibonelelo kunye nendawo ekhuselekileyo yomsebenzi.Abavoti beDemokhrasi baxhasa imibutho yabasebenzi ngama-83% -11%; akwenziwanga isigqibo ngamanqaku ama-6. Ngaphezulu kwekota yabavoti beRiphabhlikhi bayavumelana nale ngxelo ngaphezulu kwenye ethi imibutho yabasebenzi iqhubela phambili iindleko zokwenza ushishino eNew Jersey. Abavoti beDemokhrasi kunye nabavoti abangacacanga bayacacisa ukuba bayayichasa nayiphi na imizamo yokuphelisa imibutho yabasebenzi: Iidemokhrasi ngama-86% -11% margin, kunye nezigqibo ezingama-64% -30%. Iiriphabliki zahlulwe phakathi phakathi kulo mba 47% -46%.
Imbono yeManyano- Ngokuvota ngo-2011
| Kukuphi okusondeleyo kumbono wakho weemanyano eNew Jersey? | ||||
| Zonke | Vota kwi '11 Ballot | |||
| Idemokhrasi | IRiphabhlikhi | Andiqinisekanga | ||
| Umahluko | +18 | +72 | -32 | +6 |
| Imibutho yabasebenzi ilaphoKulungile. Baqinisekisa ukuba abaqeshi banikezela ngemivuzo elungileyo, izibonelelo kunye nendawo yokusebenzela ekhuselekileyo. | 53 | 83 | 28 | 41 |
| Imibutho yabasebenzi ilaphoimbi. Baqhuba iindleko zeshishini kwaye baqhuba imisebenzi ngaphandle kweNew Jersey. | 35 | Shumi elinanye | 60 | 35 |
| Andiqinisekanga | 12 | 6 | 12 | 2. 3 |
Ngelixa kungekho zindululo zibalulekileyo kwitafile yanamhlanje yokuphelisa imibutho yabasebenzi, iimvakalelo ezilungileyo malunga neemanyano phakathi kwabavoti beDemokhrasi kunye nabavoti abangagqibekanga baya kwimicimbi ethile kwi-ajenda kaChristie.Ngomda omkhulu, abavoti beDemokhrasi baphikisana nayo yonke into ye-ajenda kaChristie esayivavanya, kubandakanya nesindululo sokuphelisa ukuhlala kootitshala baseNew Jersey. Iivawutsha zesikolo kunye nokuhlaselwa kwabasebenzi bakarhulumente 'ukuxoxa malunga nepenshini kunye nezibonelelo zokhathalelo lwempilo bekukhathaza ngakumbi, abavoti beDemokhrasi bephikisana nabo ngamanqaku angama-15 nama-23 ngokulandelelana.Iivawutsha zesikolo zibekwe njengoyena mbono mbi kwi-ajenda kaChristie phakathi kwabavoti abangagqibekanga abangama-44 benqaku eliphikisayo. Ukuphelisa ukuhlala kootitshala kwakuthandwa kakhulu ngabavoti abangafezekanga, kodwa i-30% yabangakhethi zigqibo babesachasa ukuphelisa ingqesho, kwaye ama-42% asichasa esi sicwangciso xa kwachazwa ukuba ingqesho ikhusela ootitshala ekubulaweni ngokungafanelekanga.
Izindululo zikaChristie Anti-Union - Abavoti ka-2011
| … Ingaba yinto oyithandayo, uyayithanda, uyaphikisa, okanye uyaphikisa? | ||||
| Kubekwe Ngabo Bonke (Chasa) | % Iyonke intandokazi /% iyonke Chasa | |||
| Zonke | Vota kwi '11 Ballot | |||
| Idemokhrasi | IRiphabhlikhi | Andiqinisekanga | ||
| Ukuthintela abasebenzi bakarhulumente ekuxoxisaneni ngononophelo lwempilo kunye nezibonelelo zepenshini. | 33/56 | 20/75 | 49/36 | 30/57 |
| Nika iivawutsha zesikolo abafundi abanomvuzo ophantsi ukuba baye kwizikolo zabucala kwaye bahlawulele iivawutsha kuhlahlo-lwabiwo mali lwemfundo loluntu. | 40/55 | Ngama-35/61 | 54/41 | 26/70 |
| Ukuthintela iikhontrakthi zikarhulumente ekubeni ziye kubasebenzi bemanyano ukuba umanyano wabo unikele ngaphezulu kweedola ezingama-300 kumgqatswa wezopolitiko. | 34/54 | 23/68 | 45/43 | 36/48 |
| Sika izibonelelo zomhlala-phantsi nge-9% kubasebenzi bakarhulumente abadla umhlala-phantsi. | 40/54 | 14/83 | 66/29 | 43/45 |
| Sithathe amanyathelo okhuseleko agcina ootitshala bangagxothwa ngokungenasizathu. | 39/46 | 20/64 | 55/29 | 43/42 |
| Funa ukuba ootitshala bahlawule i-6,000 ngaphezulu kweedola ngonyaka nge-avareji yokufumana i-inshurensi yezempilo kunye nokunyusa i-inshurensi yezempilo. | 50/46 | 26/72 | 75/22 | 51/42 |
| Ukuphelisa ukuhlala kootitshala besikolo sikarhulumente saseNew Jersey. | Ngama-56/38 | 31/65 | 82/14 | 58/30 |
ISISEKO SEDEMOKHRASI SIHLALE SIPHIKISWA KWI-AGENDA YOBUKRISTU
Ukongeza kwizimvo zabavoti beDemokhrasi kunye nabavoti abangachazwanga ezichazwe apha ngasentla, kubalulekile ukuba uqaphele ukuba iibhloko ezimbini ezinkulu zeevoti zesiseko seDemokhrasi zihlala ziphikisana kakhulu ne-ajenda yeRiphabhlikhi: Amalungu eManyano kunye namaDemokhrasi abhalisiweyo.
Amalungu eManyano ngoku avotela iiDemokhrasi ngamanqaku angama-32 (58% -26%), kunye ne-31% yazo zonke iivoti zeDemokhrasi ezikhoyo ngamalungu emanyano. Nangona kunjalo, kukho umsantsa wamanqaku ali-13 phakathi kwenkcaso kwi-ajenda yeRiphabhlikhi kunye nenkxaso yamaDemokhrasi: iipesenti ezingama-71 zamalungu emanyano anokuvota ngo-2011 athi ayayichasa i-ajenda kaChristie, kodwa ngama-58% athi baya kuvotela iDemokhrasi. Oku kuphakamisa ukuba kusekho indawo yokukhula phakathi kwamalungu emanyano. Bachasene ngokukodwa nokusikwa kwepenshini (81% -16%) kunye nokuhlaselwa kuthethathethwano lokhathalelo lwempilo kunye nezibonelelo zepenshini (79% -15%), ke kunzima ukubona ukuba abezomthetho beDemokhrasi abaxhasa ezi zindululo baya kuba nakho njani yonyusa ivoti yabo phakathi kwabo.
AmaDemokhrasi abhalisiweyo lelinye iqela elisisiseko eliphikisana ne-ajenda yeChristie-Republican: ama-66% athi ayayichasa i-ajenda kaChristie, kwaye amanani afanayo akhathazeke kakhulu kukusikwa kweRiphabhlikhi kwezemfundo nakukhuseleko loluntu. Nangona kunjalo, i-18% yababhalisi beDemokhrasi ababhalisiweyo abakagqityi ukuba bazokuvota bani kunyulo lowiso-mthetho lukaNovemba. Oku kuphakamisa enye indawo apho iiDemokhrasi zinokukhula ngokulula ngokudibanisa kunye nokukhuthaza isiseko sabo. Iidemokhrasi ezibhalisiweyo nazo zinokukhuthazwa yimiyalezo ebonisa ukuba amaRiphabhlikhi anike ukusikwa kwerhafu koosozigidi ngexesha lobunzima bohlahlo-lwabiwo mali, kodwa wasilela ukufaka igalelo kwisicwangciso somhlala-phantsi sikarhulumente.
ISIPHELO
Inxalenye enkulu yabavoti ka-2011 ayikathengiswa kwi-ajenda ka-Gov.Christie kunye namaRiphabhlikhi kwi-ajenda yowiso-mthetho. Ngapha koko, xa ujonga le misebenzi mithathu ekufuneka igqitywe ngabaDemokhrasi ukuze baphumelele kunyulo olungelulo lonyaka- babambe abavoti abasele bevotela iDemokhrasi, badibanise kwaye baphumeze isiseko sabo semveli, kwaye baphumelele kubavoti abangagqitywanga - akukho namnye kubo oya kuba yenziwe yabalula ngokuncamathisela kwizindululo zeRiphabhlikhi. Ngalinye lala maqela athambekele ecaleni ngamandla kwaye akhuthazwe ngamaxabiso emveli eDemokhrasi kunye neengxoxo endaweni ye-ajenda kaChristie.
INDLELA YOKUSEBENZA
Le ngxelo igubungela iziphumo zophando lwethu: I-600 iyonke yodliwanondlebe kunye nabavoti bonyulo jikelele luka-2011 eNew Jersey. Udliwanondlebe lwenziwa ngoMatshi 8-10, 2011. Umda wempazamo kwiziphumo zizonke yi- ± 4.00% nangaphezulu phakathi kwamaqelana.
Inkqubo ye-kwimimandlangeenjongo zale ngxelo zahlulwe njenge:
· NW -emele i-16% yabavoti kwaye ichazwa njengaye wonke umntu ohlala eSussex, eMorris, eWarren, eHunterdon naseSomerset.
· WAZALWA -emele i-15% yabavoti kwaye ichazwa njengaye nawuphi na umntu ohlala kwiiphondo zePassaic naseBergen.
· NC -emele i-16% yabavoti kwaye ichazwa njengaye nabani na ohlala kwizithili ze-Essex, Union kunye ne-Hudson.
· C -emele iipesenti ezingama-21 zabavoti kwaye ichazwa njengaye nabani na ohlala eMercier, Middlesex naseMonmouth.
· S -emele i-32% yabavoti kwaye ichazwa njengaye nabani na ohlala e-Ocean, Burlington, Camden, Gloucester, Atlantic, Salem, Cumberland, nase Cape May.
