Ngokuqinisekileyo, ndiyazi ukuba i-Iowa iphantse yahamba iiveki ezimbini. Kodwa ndithatha ikhefu kwiveki ezayo, ndiye ndacinga ukuba ndizophuma ndiphume ngelungu lomzimba ndenze uqikelelo ngoku malunga neecaucus zikaJanuwari 3.
U-Barack Obama uzokuphumelela ikhokhasi ye-Democratic e-landlide. Kulungile, kwakulula kakhulu. Makhe ndithathe into yokuhlaba kumdyarho weRiphabhlikhi.
Okwethutyana, kwakukhangeleka ngathi ngu-Newt Gingrich owayefanele ukubethwa, kodwa ukhetho lwakutshanje lukazwelonke nolwesizwe lubonisa ukuthandwa kwakhe ngokutyibilika. Njengoko mna kuqatshelwe kwikholam yangaphambili , Zonke ezinye iABM ( Nabani na ngaphandle kweMitt abagqatswa bonwabele ukunyuka kweeveki ezintlanu ukuya kwezintandathu kumanani abo okhetho emva koko kulandelwa ukuphuma kabukhali. UGingrich wafikelela kumanqaku eeveki ezintandathu malunga neentsuku ezisixhenxe ezidlulileyo- kwaye kwangoko, amanani akhe okhetho aqala ukuhla. [Ndiyaqala ukucinga ukuba ubhubhane we-ADD ubethe isahlulo sesihlanu sonyulo oluphambili lwe-GOP. Ukuxelwa kwangaphambili kokungaziphathi kwawo akuqhelekanga - kwaye kuyothusa.]
UGingrich uzakuqhubeka nokuhla, kwaye nokuba yeyiphi na ivoti ayithathayo eIowa, ukuba akaphumelelanga, uya kube enze ngaphantsi kokulindeleyo. Kwaye yile nto eza kugxila kukusebenza-ngokuchaseneyo noko kulindelweyo, kwaye kuhlala kukho iimpazamo.
Oku kusizisa kuRon Paul. Ungena eIowa (kwaye ufumana ukonyuka okuncinci kodwa okubonakalayo kwinkxaso yakhe yelizwe). Phakathi kwe I-Iowa ezine zivota kule veki , ukhokela ipakethi ngamanqaku ama-3 ukuya kwayi-6 kwiipolls ezintathu (Insider Advantage, Iowa State U, PPP) kunye nendawo yesibini kuMitt Romney ngamanqaku ama-5 kwenye (iRasmussen).
Ngaba iipota zichanekile- ngaba uRon Paul uza kuphumelela eIowa? Kusekuqaleni kakhulu ukuxelela. I-Iowa caucus polls idume ngokungazinzi nakwiiveki zokugqibela. Sayibona le mibutho yomibini ngo-2008 yokugqibela Irejista yeeDes Moines ukuvota iqhutywe kwiintsuku nje ezimbalwa phambi kweekhokhasi zokugqibela apho sifumene ukufundwa ngokuchanekileyo ngokwenzekayo.
UDave Peterson ovela eIowa State's Harkin Institute, ongomnye wabafundi abalandela olo phando, wathi, Ndicinga ukuba uPaul kungenzeka ukuba uphantsi kweepolls . Ngokwenyani ndicinga ukuba ayichasani neli tyala - uPaul ngoku uvota ngokugqithileyo, ubukhulu becala ngenxa yokuba umxube wenani labavoti kwezi Iowa caucus polls unokuthi ungameli okwenyani kweecucus-goers.
Gcina ukhumbula ukuba malunga nama-610,000 amaRiphabhlikhi abhalisiweyo kunye nama-705,000 abhalisiweyo abazimeleyo banelungelo lokubonisa iikhokhasi ze-GOP. Ngo-2008, kuphela i-119,000. Ngo-2000, abantu abamalunga ne-88,000. Ngamanye amagama, ngaphantsi kwe-10% yabavoti abafanelekileyo baya kuvela. Ukuchonga ukuba ngoobani abaza kuvota akukho lula .
Kokunye, uninzi lwabavoti boluntu baxhomekeke kwiinjongo zokuzixela zokuzimasa kwecaucus. Ngokungafaniyo nee-primaries apho iirekhodi zokujika zifumaneka esidlangalaleni, Unobhala kaRhulumente wase-Iowa akayigcini i-caucus - amaqela ayayenza. Ukuba ufuna iingxelo zokuvulwa kwexesha elidlulileyo kuya kufuneka uthenge olo luhlu ngokuthe ngqo kumaqela ngexabiso eliphantsi. Ngapha koko, ukubakho kwecaucus edlulileyo ayisiyo barometer elungileyo yeenjongo zangoku (kwakhona, ngokungafaniyo nee-primaries).
Ukuvota kwiikhokhasi ze-Iowa kudume ngokuba nzima. Oko kusibuyisela kuRon Paul. Wenza kakuhle ngokungaqhelekanga phakathi kwabancinci (okt abangaphantsi kweminyaka engama-45), abavoti abazimeleyo. Ukukhutshwa komnqamlezo okhutshwe kwiipoll ezimbini kubonisa oku.
Uvoto lwe-Insider Advantage lubonisa uPaul phantse isiqingatha sevoti phakathi kwabahamba ikhokhokhasi abangaphantsi kweminyaka engama-30 kwaye ekhokele ngama-30% kwabaneminyaka engama-30 ukuya kwengama-44. Ubaleka noRomney (22% inye) phakathi kwabo baneminyaka engama-45-64, kodwa URomney uhamba phambili phakathi kweminyaka engama-65 nangaphezulu kunye noPaul wehla waya ku-5thindawo. Phakathi kwabavoti abazimeleyo abazimeleyo, uPaul ukhokelela nge-28%, xa kuthelekiswa ne-19% kaRick Perry kunye ne-17% yeRomney. Phakathi kwabathathi-nxaxheba beRiphabhlikhi, uPaul wonwabele umda omncinci we-22% ukuya kwi-20% kumda weRomney, kunye noPerry (15%), uGingrich (15%), kunye noMichele Bachmann (11%) kufutshane.
I-Iowa State Poll ipenda umfanekiso ofanayo. UPaul uqokelela uninzi olucacileyo lwevoti phakathi kwabo bangaphantsi kweminyaka engama-45. Nangona kunjalo, uNewt Gingrich ukhokele phakathi kwabavoti abadala. Kufanelekile ukuba uqaphele ukuba i-Iowa State Poll yenze izinto ezimbini ezingafaniyo nezinye uninzi lwee-poll. Basebenzise ixesha lendawo elide kakhulu, beqala udliwanondlebe lwabo nge-8 kaDisemba, xa ukuthandwa kukaGingrich kwakusekuphakameni. Baye basebenzisa isampulu yepaneli-ngamanye amagama, baphinde benza udliwanondlebe neseti encinci yabavoti abathetha nabo kuvoto lwabo lukaNovemba. Akucaci ukuba ukusetyenziswa kwepaneli kunempembelelo kwiziphumo zabo, kodwa ixesha elandisiweyo lendawo alibambisi ubumanzi obugqithisileyo bolu gqatso.
Ndicinga ukuba ezi polls zinokuyinyusa inkxaso kaPaul kuba zimele ngaphezulu kweqela labavoti elingenakufane liphume. Gcina ukhumbule ukuba ii-caucuses yinkqubo ende. Kuya kufuneka umamele iiyure zeentetho ezivela kubameli bomgqatswa ngamnye ngaphambi kokuba uvote. Kwaye kuya kufuneka uyenze ngolu suku lubandayo lwaseIowa.
Ngubani ekunokwenzeka ukuba abonakale phantsi kwezo meko - abancinci, abavoti abanengqondo ezimeleyo okanye abadala, amagqala eqela? Ngokuchanekileyo. Ngoku, oku kuyaphikisana noko abanye abanye ababukeleyo abanobuqili baye bakhetha .
Anditsho ukuba akusayi kubakho bavoti abancinci kwiikhokhasi. Ngeke nje ibe ninzi njengoko iipoll zibonisa. Ngokwe-Iowa yokuphuma kwe-Iowa ka-2008 (okanye i-polls yokungena), i-27% yababekho kwi-GOP babengaphantsi kweminyaka engama-45. I-Insider Advantage poll ineli qela kwi-40% yabavoti kwaye i-Iowa State inama-37%. NgeyeDwarha Irejista yeeDes Moines I-poll iqaphele ukuba abadala abanakufane bazenzele ingxelo Ukuzimasa ikhokhasi kunokuba bekunjalo kwiminyaka edlulileyo. Ngelixa ndiyamkelayo loo nto, andiqinisekanga ukuba abancinci bazimele njenge kukhuthazwe ukuba kuphume njengoko uninzi lwamva nje lubonisa (ulondolozo oluncinci kunokuba libali elahlukileyo).
Umcimbi wokwenyani apha sisazisi esichaphazelekayo. Kwi-poll yokuphuma ngo-2008, i-13% ye-GOP ye-caucus goers yazichaza njengezimeleyo. Nangona kunjalo, abavoti beli qela benza i-30% yesampulu ye-Insider Advantage kunye ne-38% yesampulu kaRhulumente wase-Iowa. Ngaphandle kwenkomfa yeDemokhrasi ekhuphisanayo yokutsala abanye abantu abazimeleyo (njengoko kunokuphikiswa ukuba kwenzeka ngo-2008), akukho ndlela yokuba abazimeleyo baya kwenza naphi na kufutshane nelo nani ngoJanuwari 3.rd.
Ekugqibeleni, ndiyaxela kwangaphambili - kwaye nantsi apho ndiya khona kwilungu elithile - ukuba uMitt Romney uzophumelela i-Iowa malunga ne-27% yevoti. URon Paul uza kuza ngomzuzwana osondeleyo, kodwa kuba uninzi lweepolitiki lumbonisa ngokukhokela, uya kubonwa njengongasebenzi kakuhle. Ndikwacinga ukuba indawo yesithathu egqibayo iya kuba nguMichele Bachmann (mhlawumbi ngenxa yokungena kwabaselula abancinci). Akayi kuba kude kakhulu noGingrich kunye noPerry kwiivoti zizonke, kodwa ukumangaliswa kwakhe ukubonisa iya kuba libali lekhokhasi.
Ke ngemithombo yeendaba egxile ekuphumeleleni kukaRomney (Ngaba akoyiseki?) Kunye nokusebenza okungcono kukaBachman kunokuba bekulindelwe, umzamo onamandla kaRon Paul uya kuthi ucofwe ngaphandle kwimithombo yeendaba. Kwaye yeyona nto ibalulekileyo njengoko ingqalelo ijikela eNew Hampshire nase Mzantsi.
