Kule minyaka imbalwa idlulileyo, bekukho uninzi lweengxelo ezithi i-China igqithile, okanye ikulungele ukudlula, i-United States iye kwindawo ephezulu. Isondele kangakanani inamba ekubhabheni ngaphaya kokhozi?Ifoto nguSpencer Platt / Getty Izithombe I-United States inokuthi ithintele ukudodobala koqoqosho ngo-2019, kodwa uqoqosho lwaseMelika lwenza njani xa kuthelekiswa namanye amazwe? Ngaba ixabiso loqoqosho lwaseMelika lungcono, kwaye lomelele kangakanani izinga lokukhula laseMelika? Ngaba i-China, i-India, i-Japan kunye namazwe ase-Europe alungele ukugqitha i-US kwi-2020? Kwaye yintoni enokuchaza imeko yezoqoqosho iMelika ngoku ekuyo ngoku?
Ngaba uqoqosho lwaseMelika lolona luPhambili kwihlabathi?
Ukusukela oko yaphelayo iMfazwe yesibini (II) yeHlabathi, i-United States ibinoqoqosho olomeleleyo emhlabeni. Kodwa ngaba kunjalo? Ngoku ka UCaleb Isilivere kunye ne-Investopedia IMelika ilawula eyona ndawo iphambili kuluhlu lweMveliso ePheleleyo yaseKhaya (GDP) okanye ixabiso elipheleleyo leempahla kunye neenkonzo elizweni. Kwindawo yesibini, uya kufumana iChina, emva koko iJapan, iJamani ne-Indiya. Ukujikeleza i-10 ephezulu yi-United Kingdom, i-France, i-Itali, i-Brazil kunye ne-Canada. I-Russia kunye ne-South Korea baphose nje kwinqanaba le-10 ephezulu.
Inqanaba lezoqoqosho, ngokusekwe kwi-GDP yelizwe (enqunywe yi-IMF ye-World Economic Outlook Database), ibalulekile kwisikhundla selizwe emhlabeni. Olu hlalutyo lubonisa ukuba uqoqosho luyinjini yokukhula, eyalela uninzi lobutyebi behlabathi, uSilver wabhala. I-GDP yesiqhelo yezoqoqosho oluphezulu lwe-10 yongeza malunga ne-66% yoqoqosho lwehlabathi… uqoqosho oluphezulu lwama-20 lunegalelo phantse kuma-79%. Amanye amazwe ehlabathi, phantse i-175 ngenani, enza onke amanye amandla oqoqosho lwehlabathi, phantse i-20%.
Ngaba i-United States iya kuhlala iyinombolo yokuqala?
Kule minyaka imbalwa idlulileyo, bekukho uninzi lweengxelo ezithi i-China igqithile, okanye ikulungele ukudlula, i-United States iye kwindawo ephezulu. Isondele kangakanani inamba ekubhabheni ngaphaya kokhozi?
Emma London Ukubhalela i- Iphephancwadi iECOWorld ineengcinga ezithile ngaloo nto. Ukusukela ngo-2003 ukuya ku-2018, i-United States yabamba eyona ndawo iphambili kuluhlu lwehlabathi, kwaye iLondon ifumanisa ukuba mhlawumbi sizakugcina umahluko wokuba noqoqosho olomeleleyo ngo-2023 nango-2028. Kodwa ngonyaka ka-2033, i-China izakufika i-United States eyona ntengiso inkulu ehlabathini.
Oko kunokothusa abantu baseMelika, kodwa ndikhumbula uqikelelo olusekwe kumanqanaba okukhula kwe-GDP awayene China eyodlula iMelika ngo-2007 okanye ngo-2008. Kwaye iMelika ayililo lodwa ilizwe ekufuneka lijonge ngaphezulu kwegxalaba lalo. I-Japan, ebibambe indawo yesibini de yawa phantsi yi-China, kungenzeka iwele kwindawo yesine ngo-2033, njengoko i-India (okwangoku kungowesixhenxe) inokutsiba phambi kwe-Jamani, i-United Kingdom ne-France, ngokwe- Iphephancwadi iECOWorld inqanaba.
Ukulinganisa iGDP ngeCapita nganye: IMelika kunye neRivals
I-China inokugqitha i-United States kwi-GDP iyonke nge-2030s, kodwa libali elahlukileyo xa kusiziwa kwi-GDP ngomntu ngamnye. Kwenzeka ntoni xa wohlulahlula uqoqosho ngabemi belizwe?
Kuphando oluvela kwi-Statistics Times , Ngokusekwe kwidatha yeNgxowa-mali yeMali yeHlabathi (i-IMF), i-China izifumana ikwindawo yama-70 kwihlabathi liphela kwi-GDP ngomntu ngamnye, kwi- $ 10,099. I-China isemva kakhulu kweMelika kwi-65,112 yeedola. Ngalo nto, i-China yalandela iMalaysia, iMexico kunye neRomania, iCosta Rica kunye neChile. I-Russia, kwi-66th, ayisiyongcono kangako, kunye neetit zomkhosi ezingaphantsi komndilili wehlabathi kwi-GDP nganye.
Kodwa iUnited States ayihlali kwindawo ephezulu ye-GDP ngomntu ngamnye, nokuba. Kwi-2019, i-IMF ibeke indawo yokuqala eLuxembourg, ilandelwa yiSwitzerland, iNorway, i-Ireland, iQatar ne-Iceland (kunye neMacao, ukuba uyayibala loo ndawo), emva koko i-US Kule minyaka mihlanu izayo, i-US kulindeleke ukuba inyuse inotshi, kodwa kungenxa yokuba i-Iceland kulindeleke ukuba yehle. ISingapore neDenmark baya kusondela ekubambeni iMelika. Xa kuziwa ekuthengeni amandla ombane, i-US iyehla kwizikhundla eziphezulu ze-10, isiya kwi-11 yeyona ilungileyo kwihlabathi.
Inamandla Kangakanani Inqanaba lokukhula laseMelika?
Izinga lokukhula koqoqosho lwaseMelika ngonyaka ka-2019 laliphantsi kakhulu xa kuthelekiswa namanye amazwe. I-IMF ifunyenwe Iqondo lokukhula eUnited States lalingama-2.35%, lilunge nge-115 kwihlabathi kumazwe ali-193. IMelika ibisemva kweRiphabhlikhi yaseCzech neSlovakia, kunye neMorocco, iBelize, iSri Lanka neAlgeria.
Kodwa kukho isizathu sokuba inqanaba laseMelika liphantsi kakhulu xa kufikwa kumanqanaba okukhula. Okokuqala, amanye amazwe abe negumbi elininzi kakhulu lokukhula, anamava emfazwe, intlupheko okanye zombini kwixesha elidlulileyo. Amazwe alishumi ahamba phambili kwezoqoqosho yiDominica, iSouth Sudan, iRwanda, iBangladesh, i-Ivory Coast, iGhana, i-Ethiopia, iNepal, iCambodia neMauritania. Uninzi lwala mazwe lwaluneemfazwe zamakhaya, iintlekele zendalo kunye nezinye izizathu ezinokushiya indawo yokukhula.
Ezinye zezinto ezikumgangatho ophantsi wokukhula waseMelika zikhona kuba i-United States iye yafuna ukuthomalalisa ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kunye nomgaqo-nkqubo wezoqoqosho. Endaweni yokubeka emngciphekweni isiphithiphithi kwezoqoqosho kunye nokungazinzi, i-US isigqibe ngokwembali ukuba ukucotha kunye nokuzinza kuphumelela ugqatso. Bambalwa eMelika abanqwenela ukubuyela kwi-inflation enamanani aphindwe kabini kwii-1970s, okanye kwi-hyperinflation yamazwe aseLatin American kufutshane nelo xesha.
Kukwakhona indawo yokuba iUnited States iphucule ukukhula kwayo. Ngokwembali i-United States ibiphakathi i-3.21% yokukhula kwenqanaba ukusuka kwi-1947 ukuya kwi-2019, ngokwezoQoqosho zoRhwebo . Izinga lokukhula elihlwempuzekileyo lekota yokuqala lenze uloyiko olusemthethweni lokudodobala koqoqosho, kukhuthazwe, ngokungathandabuzekiyo iimfazwe zorhwebo Ukuvalwa kukarhulumente kunye neenkxalabo malunga nokujika kwesivuno. Ukukhula kubuyile kwikota yesibini (ngaphezulu kwe-3%) kodwa kwahlaliswa phantsi ukuya kwi-2% kwikota yesithathu neyesine yowama-2019.
I-America iqhuba kakuhle, igcina eyona ndawo iphambili yentengiso ngoku, kwaye ibonakala ngathi ibambe i-China kwiminyaka eliqela ezayo. Kodwa i-GDP ngokwe-capita nganye kunye namaxabiso okukhula e-United States angangcono. Intsebenziswano yezopolitiko yamanye amazwe, kunye nokusebenzisana neqela lasekhaya kwezopolitiko, kunokuba sisisombululo.
UJohn A. Tures nguprofesa wesayensi yezopolitiko eLaGrange College eLaGrange, eGeorgia-funda ibali lakhe elipheleleyo apha.
