Sigqithile kwiindaba ezimbi zoqoqosho. Kodwa ingafika nini?Ifoto nguSpencer Platt / Getty Izithombe Umbuzo wokuqala phantse wonke umntu uhlala ebuza malunga noqoqosho kukuba ingaba asihambi kusini na. Umbuzo wesibini: ngaba ukudodobala kwemali okulandelayo kuya kuba kubi, njengeRedition enkulu, okanye ngaba kuya kuba mnene ngokuthelekisa? Le kholamu iyiphendula yomibini le mibuzo, ihlalutya idatha yokukhula kwezoqoqosho ukubona ukuba ilizwe lisingise phi kwaye indlela ekunokuba nzima ngayo ishishini .
Ke yintoni kanye kanye imeko yokudodobala koqoqosho?
Ukudodobala kwezoqoqosho kubangelwa kukusweleka kweshishini kunye nokuzithemba kwabathengi, umongameli weWorldMoneyWatch kunye nengcali yezoqoqosho e-U.S. UKimberly Amadeo ucacisile ngeposi kwiThe Balance . Njengoko ukuzithemba kuyehla, kunjalo neemfuno. Ukwehla kwamandla emali yindawo yokupakisha kumjikelo weshishini. Kulapho incopho, ikhatshwa yimincili engenangqondo, isiya kwisivumelwano.
Kodwa kuza kwenzeka nini ukudodobala koqoqosho okulandelayo? Ukubiza ixesha elichanekileyo lokudodobala koqoqosho kwihlabathi liphela kunzima kunzima, wabhala uDesmond Lachman, umhlali waseAmerican Enterprise Institute (AEI) nowayesakuba ngusekela mlawuli kwi-International Monetary Fund, e inqaku lakutshanje lokufuna iAlfa . Ngapha koko, akukho mntu uqinisekile ngokwenyani ukuba ukwehla kuya kuba njani xa uqoqosho ludla ngokufika.
Akukho kunqongophala kwezimvo malunga nokudodobala kwezoqoqosho, ke kuyanceda ukuba nedatha yokuba ezi ziganeko zenzeka nini, kwaye zihlala ixesha elingakanani. Ukuphendula le mibuzo, ndiye ndajonga idatha yeSizwe yoPhando lwezoQoqosho (NBER), ebonelele ngeempendulo zale mibuzo icinezelayo malunga noqoqosho lwethu.
Ukujonga amanani, siyabona ukuba ukudodobala okukhulu ibingengomlo wethu wezoqoqosho umde. Ixhala lika-1873-1879 lathatha ixesha elide. Iincwadi zezifundo zembali zinokuxelela ukuba i-Gay Nineties, i-Roaring Twenty kunye ne-1950s yayingamaxesha ethu oqoqosho olukhulu, kodwa uphando lwe-NBER lubhengeza ezo ntsomi. I-1890s kunye ne-1920s nganye nganye yayinezoqoqosho ezine ngexesha leminyaka elishumi, ngelixa i-1950s yayinezoqoqosho ezibini, eyokugqibela eyenzakalisa kakubi i-GOP kunyulo luka-1958. Zimbalwa izinto ezintle onokuzithetha malunga ne-1960s, kodwa yayiyiminyaka elishumi yokukhula okuqinileyo, njengoko yayinjalo iminyaka yeReagan (1980s) kunye neminyaka kaClinton (1990s).
Ke amanani asixelela ntoni namhlanje?
Okokuqala, iindaba ezimbi zoqoqosho
Ukuba ujonga imbali yoqoqosho lwaseMelika, usebenzisa idatha ye-NBER, uyakufumanisa ukuba ubude bokukhula obuqhelekileyo bumalunga neenyanga ezingama-38.73. Uhlumo lwethu lwangoku luqale ngoJuni ka-2009, ke ngoko ukudodobala koqoqosho kufanele ukuba kwahlasela ngo-Agasti ka-2012, nto leyo eyayiza kuba lixesha elibi kuMongameli uBarack Obama. Kodwa ayizange; sineminyaka engaphezu kwe-10 yokukhula koqoqosho, elinye lamaxesha amade okukhula kwimbali yase-U.S., amanani afanele ukunceda uMongameli uDonald Trump kunyulo olulandelayo ukuba angazigcina.
Ke, silindelwe ziindaba ezimbi zoqoqosho. Kodwa ingafika nini?
Isibini kwisithathu sezoqoqosho kushishino e-US silindele ukuba ukudodobala kwezoqoqosho kuqale ukuphela kuka-2020, ngelixa uninzi lwabaphenduli lusithi Umgaqo-nkqubo wezorhwebo ngowona mngcipheko mkhulu wokwanda, ngokophando olutsha, Ithamsanqa Iphephancwadi elixeliweyo kunyaka ophelileyo . Malunga ne-10% babone isivumelwano esisezantsi esiqala ngo-2019, ama-56% athi ngo-2020 nama-33% athi ngo-2021 okanye kamva, ngokokuvota… kwabaphengululi abangama-51 abakhutshwe nguMbutho weSizwe wezoQoqosho kwezoShishino…
Ngokudodobala kwemali kubonakala kusondele, umbuzo olandelayo uthi: yintoni enokubangela?
Ngoku ka Ithamsanqa Iphephancwadi lengxelo ka-2018, phantse isiqingatha sezoqoqosho kushishino lakhankanya umgaqo-nkqubo wezorhwebo wase-U.S., ngelixa abanye bebona amaxabiso enzala, okanye ukungazinzi kwimarike yestokhwe, njengoyena nobangela.
Okwesibini, Iindaba ezilungileyo zoQoqosho
Akukho mda kuqikelelo malunga nokudodobala kwezoqoqosho okulandelayo. U-Lachman ucinga ukuba kuya kuba kubi. Ukunqongophala kwezixhobo zomgaqo-nkqubo ezoneleyo zokuphendula kuqoqosho olulandelayo lwehlabathi kungacebisa ukuba xa imeko yezoqoqosho elandelayo isenzeka, iyakuba mbi kakhulu kunomyinge wasemva kwemfazwe, uqaphele kwisithuba ipapashwe ngumthombo weendaba kumzi-mveliso weValueWalk Premium.
IFederal Reserve inomsebenzi ocel'umngeni ngokugqithileyo, wavumelana noPeter Hooper, wezoqoqosho ophambili wezoqoqosho kwi-Deutsche Bank, kwi-op-ed for IWashington Post . Ngokunyuka kwamaxabiso kunyuka kunye nemarike yabasebenzi exineneyo, ibhanki esembindini kufuneka ngoku ihambise uqoqosho kude nobushushu kwaye ilibeke kwindawo entle yengqesho epheleleyo kunye nozinzo lwamaxabiso. Kodwa iFed ayikaze ikwazi ukufezekisa ukufika okunjalo okuthambileyo. Ngalo lonke ixesha izama ubugqwetha, siye sawela kuqoqosho-ubuzaza balo buhambelana nobungakanani boqoqosho.
Ngelixa Uqoqosho , Isitalato kwaye IChicago Tribune bonke babona iindaba ezimbi ngezoqoqosho, Utyalomali lweGuggenheim Kubonakala ngathi ndiziva ngathi ukudodobala kwemali okulandelayo akunakuba kubi kangako. Umsebenzi wethu ubonakalisa ukuba ukudodobala kwemali okulandelayo akuyi kubanzima njengokugqibela, kubhala abahlalutyi benkampani.
Kwimizamo yokufumana eyam impendulo exhaswa yidatha, ndacazulula ubalo lwe-NBER ukumisela ukuba ukudodobala okubi ngokubanzi kwenzeka emva kwexesha elide lokukhula, okanye emva kwexesha elifutshane lokukhula. Linda, ngoko yintoni uqoqosho olubi? Inkqubo ye- Uqoqosho ngo-2007-2009 yayilelinye lawona maxesha mabi emfazwe nasemva kwemfazwe, kugqithwe kuphela kukudodobala koqoqosho 'okuntywiliselwe kabini' kowe-1980-1981. Ngokwahlukileyo, uqoqosho lwango-2001 lwaluthambile ngokuthelekisa, ngokutsho kwabahlalutyi baseGuggenheim.
Ke ngoko, ukwehla kobude beRecession Great (iinyanga ezili-18) okanye ngaphezulu kuthathwa njengobunzima, ngelixa ezo zimfutshane ngexesha zigwetywa zibuthathaka ngokuthelekisa. Uqoqosho olukhulu lwalandela ixesha elide lokukhula (2001-2007), lonyusa amathuba okhula kwexesha elide okukhokelela kwisiphelo esibi soqoqosho. Kodwa oko kwakungenjalo kwiminyaka yee-1980 neyee-1990; Ukudodobala kwezo shumi leminyaka kwenzeke emva kwexesha elide lokukhula, kodwa ezi yayiziingxaki zezoqoqosho ezibuthathaka ngokuthelekisa.
Iziphumo zibonisa ukuba amaxesha anzima ezoqoqosho alandelwa ngamaxesha amafutshane okukhula koqoqosho (iinyanga ezingama-27.85, ngokomndilili). Kwelinye icala, ukudodobala koqoqosho okuthe chu kwenzeka emva kwexesha elide lokukhula koqoqosho (iinyanga ezingama-45.8, ngokomndilili), kwaye loo mahluko ubalulekile. Ama-2000 kunye noQoqosho oluKhulu lwalunokungahambi kakuhle kune-harbinger.
Ukuqukumbela, nangona silindelwe lixesha lokudodobala, iziphumo azifanelanga ukuba njalo naye kubi yakuba ifikile. Eyona ndlela ibaluleke kakhulu ilizwe lethu elinokulwa neslide yezoqoqosho ezayo kubandakanya ukwenza izixhobo ezingakumbi zokugcina ukudodobala kwezoqoqosho kunye nokufuna intsebenziswano kwezoqoqosho phesheya, njengoko iingcali zezoqoqosho kunye neenkokheli zeshishini zicebisa. Imigaqo-nkqubo yezoqoqosho yee-1920s iya kuba yintlekele xa unokuqeshwa namhlanje.
UJohn A. Tures nguprofesa wesayensi yezopolitiko kwiKholeji yaseLaGrange eLaGrange, eGeorgia-funda ibali lakhe elipheleleyo apha.
