Ewe uqikelelo lwe-app yakho yemozulu luye lwanda ngokungachanekanga kwiminyaka yakutshanje — kodwa kuphela ukuba uhlala eU.S.UJohn Tlumacki / IBoston Globe ngokusebenzisa imifanekiso kaGetty Akunyanzelekanga ukuba ube ngumntu waseCalifornia okhaliphileyo ongacacanga kumatshini wesiphithiphithi ongenanceba oko kukuthi ehlotyeni laseMpuma Coast ukhalela abantu 'ukungakwazi ukuqikelela ngokuchanekileyo ukuba iza kunetha nini, kwaye ixesha elingakanani. Kwaye okungakumbi uyazi malunga uqikelelo lwemozulu lusebenza njani eUnited States, kokukhona unokucaphuka kwaye ungathandeki ekuthandeni ilizwe. Oku kuyasebenza nakumalungu eCongress, abonakala ngathi bayoyika oososayensi bemozulu ukuba bafune uqikelelo lwemozulu nanini na (kwaye naphina) apho banokufumaneka khona.
Ubunzima besizwe bokujongela phantsi bufike ku-2012. Ekupheleni kwelo thuba, ngelixa kulandelwa inkqubela yesaqhwithi kunqumla iAtlantic, iNkqubo yaseMelika yeGlobal Forecast (GFS) yaqikelela ukuba le patheni yemozulu iyakuqhekeka kwaye igubungele ulwandle. Endaweni yoko, into eyaba yiNkanyamba uSandy yajikela ngqo kummandla wedolophu waseNew York. Uqhwithela luthe saa kwizitalato nakwindlela ezihamba ngaphantsi komhlaba, uninzi lwazo lusaziva iziphumo, zabulala abantu abangama-233 kwaye zabangela umonakalo kumawaka ezigidi ezingama-75 zeedola- kanye Imodeli yekhompyuter yemozulu yaseYurophu iqikelelwe kusenokwenzeka.
Ukungaqondi kakuhle malunga noSandy kumise into eye yaba ngumzamo weminyaka emininzi wokuphucula uqikelelo lwemozulu yase-US-kunye nokunyusa nayiphi na inkqubela phambili kwitekhnoloji okanye kubuchule obunokubakho ukuyenza, nokuba ungowuphi umthombo.
Njengobambeleyo Ulawulo lweLwandlekazi lweSizwe kunye neAtmospheric (NOAA) umlawuli UNeil Jacobs uvumile , nasemva kohlaziyo lwamva nje, i-NOAA's GFS isasalele ngasemva zombini iZiko laseYurophu loQikelelo lweMozulu oluPhakathi (i-ECMWF) kunye ne-UK Met Office ngokuchaneka kwezulu-kwaye akukho mntu wonwabileyo ngayo. Ngokukodwa ayisiyiCongress, ethi, njengoko iZiko laseMelika kwiFiziksi (AIP) kutsha nje liqwalasele, lisilela kumonde we-NOAA ukulungisa uqikelelo lwayo.
ICongress iphazamisekile, ikhathazekile, ukuba ayicaphuki kwaphela kwi-NOAA, utshilo u-Antonio Busalacchi, umongameli we-University Corporation yoPhando lweAtmospheric, ngokwe-AIP. (Ngaphandle kokuba uqale ukukholelwa ukuba icandelo labucala lingangcono ekuchazeni imozulu, khumbula: idatha esetyenziswa ngumntu wonke ukuqikelela malunga nemvula ivela kwimithombo exhaswa ngurhulumente, kwaye amaYurophu abonakala esenza kakuhle ngemodeli yoluntu. )
Esinye sezizathu zokuba abantu baseYurophu babengcono, njengoko uJacobs watshoyo kwintetho yoluntu, kukuba iYurophu yabela izixhobo zekhompyuter izihlandlo ezihlanu. uphando lwemozulu njengoko kwenza iMelika. Abantu baseYurophu nabo baxhamla kwindlela eyodwa. Ngelixa abantu baseMelika benemali engaphezulu, izixhobo ezongezelelweyo zenza nje iinkqubo zokumodareyitha ezifanayo ezingachanekanga ngakumbi, utshilo uJacobs.
Ukulungisa le nto, i-NOAA izama ukulungelelanisa ngakumbi imodeli yemozulu exhaswa ngurhulumente-ukuqinisa into ebizwa ngokuba yi-NOAA yeNkqubo yokuBikezela ngokuQinisekileyo kunye noko uJacobs akubonayo njengenkqubo enye engenamthungo yokuqikelela imozulu- kunye neklasi yezifundo ezingasetyenziswanga inkqubela phambili. 
I-Meteorologist uScott Entrekin ujonge imeko yemozulu e-NOAA Boulder ngolwesiThathu, Okthobha 24, 2018.IHyoung Chang / iDenver Post ngokusebenzisa imifanekiso kaGetty
Enye ingxaki ebaluleke ngakumbi kukuxhomekeka kuka-NOAA kwiimodeli ezindala zekhompyuter, ezibizwa nguJacobs ukuba ziimveliso zokuxela ilifa eziqhubeka kwinxalenye enkulu kuba nabani na oziqhubayo unelayini ethe ngqo kwilungu leCongress, othi ke anditsalele umnxeba andikhwaze ngokuzama ukushiya into engasasebenziyo. imveliso.
Ke kuninzi okwenzekayo! Mhlawumbi enye indlela yokuyilungisa kukuvumela nabani na onobuchule ukuba atsibe echibini kwaye abone ukuba into yokudlala yakhe iya kudada kusini na.
Kwangoko kulo nyaka, kusetyenziswa imali kunye nokuzonwabisa okukhuselekileyo kubulelwe kuMthetho woPhando lwemozulu kunye noMthetho woBuchule beNdawo evunyiweyo yiCongress e2017, NOAA I-inked idili elingenzi nzuzo , liZiko leLizwe leZizwe ngezizwe loPhando lweAtmospheric (NCAR) ukuphucula imodeli yekhompyuter.
Kwangelo xesha, i-NOAA yabhengeza ukudala i-15 yezigidi ze-Earth Prediction Innovation Centre, okanye i-EPIC-ikakhulu indlu yokuhlanjululwa esekwe lilifu kubaphandi abaphuhlisa itekhnoloji entsha kunye nevelayo yokutshintsha ngokukhawuleza ezo modeli zekhompyuter zenze uqikelelo lwemozulu oluchanekileyo lwe-NOAA. Ngamanye amagama, ukuba kukho naziphi na izinto ezintsha ezenzekayo kwimodeli yemozulu, i-NOAA ifuna ukubanakho ukuyisebenzisa kwangoko.
Oku kuyakuvumela i-NOAA ukuba yenze imodeli yophuhliso lwemithombo, njengoko utshilo uJacobs. Iya kuvumela i-EPIC ukuba ihlale ngaphandle kwe-NOAA, ngokuvumela oko uqikelelo lwemozulu eUnited States ukuthatha zombini inkuthazo kunye nolwalathiso oluvela ngaphandle kukarhulumente wobumbano.
Ngaba izakusebenza? Inokuba njalo. Ukuba i-NOAA kunye ne-GFS baya kuphinda bafumane ubunkokheli behlabathi kuqikelelo lwemozulu, i-EPIC inokuba yindlela yokwenza, IZiko laseMelika leFiziksi libonile kule veki.
Ukuba ayenzeki loo nto, ukuba izifundiswa azikwazi ukubonelela ngemodeli kwaye i-NOAA ayinakho ukuyibamba ngexesha ukukhusela ukubala okungalunganga kwesixeko, nokuba nomsindo ngakumbi-kunye nokumanzi, okanye ukoma, njengokuba kunjalo mhlawumbi-iCongress ingabuya nempindezelo. Okanye imali encinci. Kuzo zombini ezi ziganeko, abantu baseMelika bazakushiyeka beqikelela ukuba bazonxiba ntoni ngalomini, ngelixa bejonge ngolunya ukhetho oluqinisekileyo lwelinen kunye nesambrela.
