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Iipota zibonisa ukuba uninzi lwonyulo lwaseMelika lubona ulawulo lukaBarack Obama njengomongameli ongaphumelelanga. Oku kuyinyani ngokubhekisele kuqoqosho. Ndiyathandabuza kakhulu ukuba nantoni na eyakwenzeka phakathi kwangoku kunye nosuku loNyulo oluya kukhulisa amanani awamkelekileyo ka-Obama okuvuma.
Ngokwesiqhelo, unyulo luka-2012 luka-Mongameli lwaluya kuba yi-slam dunk ye-GOP. Iipota zibonisa, nangona kunjalo, ukuba uMitt Romney unamanani amakhulu okungathandeki kuye. Ithafa kwaye ilula, uMitt Romney ujongwa sisininzi sabavoti njengeplutocrat engaphandle kwebala ngexesha loxinzelelo lwezoqoqosho. Ndiyathandabuza ukuba lo mbono uza kutshintsha phakathi kwangoku kunye noMhla woNyulo.
Ke unyulo luka-2012 luka-2012 lunokuchazwa njengohlanga olusezantsi. Kubo bobabini uBarack Obama kunye noMitt Romney, iinombolo zokuvota zimbi kakhulu.
Ukusukela oko ndenza uvavanyo lwam lokuqala ngorhulumente kukhetho kwikholamu yam ye-16 ka-Epreli, kubekho utshintsho olukhulu kwizibalo zeKholeji yoNyulo ngokuqinisekileyo ephucula ithemba lika-Obama. Ndisekela uqikelelo lwam lweKholeji yoNyulo kokubini kwiipoll kunye nolwazi lwam kwezopolitiko zikarhulumente ochaphazelekayo.
Ngokukodwa, iPennsylvania (iivoti ezingama-20 zonyulo), endandikhe ndazibeka njengelizwe lokuphosa, ngoku icacile kwikholamu ka-Obama. Ngelixa ndihambise iColorado (iivoti ezili-9 zonyulo) ukusuka kwikholamu ka-Obama ndaya kwicandelo lokuphosa, ndiye ndasusa neVirginia (iivoti zonyulo ezili-13) kunye neNew Hampshire (iivoti ezi-4 zonyulo) ukusuka kwikholamu yaseRomney ukuya kwindawo yokuphosa.
Oku kulandelayo yingqikelelo yam yangoku yeKholeji yoNyulo.
Ndiqikelela ukuba uMitt Romney uza kuthwala ngaphandle kobunzima onke amazwe athi uJohn McCain uphumelele ngo-2008, iivoti ezingama-180 zizonke. La mazwe alandelayo:
Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Arizona, Georgia, Idaho, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia, Wyoming.
Ndikwachaza ukuba uMitt Romney uza kuphumelela la mazwe mathathu alandelayo ukuba u-Barack Obama uphumelele ngo-2008, ukongeza iivoti ezingama-55 zonyulo:
IFlorida , Indiana, North Carolina.
Ilizwi malunga neFlorida: Abanye babafundi bam babuza ukubekwa kwam kwiLanga le-Sunshine kwikholamu yaseRomney, endaweni yokuphosa phezulu. U-Obama, nangona kunjalo, ebesoloko enamanani angamkelekanga eFlorida ethe aba mandundu kutshanje. Andithandabuzi ukuba uRomney uza kuphumelela eFlorida.
Oku kuzisa inani elipheleleyo likaRomney kwiivoti zonyulo ezingama-235.
U-Barack Obama uzophumelela la mazwe alandelayo, awaphumeleleyo ngo-2008, iivoti ezingama-259 zizonke:
California, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Iowa, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New York, New Jersey, New Mexico, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington, Wisconsin .
Oko kushiya la mazwe alandelayo kudidi lokuphosa, iivoti ezingama-44 zizonke:
IColorado(9), ENew Hampshire (4), eOhio (18), eVirginia (13).
Ukuze uMitt Romney aphumelele iivoti ezingama-270 zonyulo ezifunekayo ukufezekisa uloyiso lweKholeji yoNyulo, kufuneka aphumelele KONKE eOhio naseVirginia KANYE nakwiColorado okanye eNew Hampshire. Lo ayingomsebenzi olula.
Umcimbi womtshato wesini esifanayo unokunceda uMitt Romney kuzo zombini iOhio naseVirginia. Ndisebenzisa ngononophelo igama kunokuba ndenze.
Ngo-2004, umba wokutshata kwabantu besini esinye wawubalulekile kunqoba kuka-George W. Bush ububanzi e-Ohio, urhulumente owamnika uloyiso oluncinci lweKholeji yoNyulo ku-John Kerry. Kwakukho inyathelo lokuvalwa komtshato wabantu besini esinye kwi-vot kwi-Buckeye State ngaloo nyaka, eyadlula kakhulu. Kunzima ukuqikelela ukuba yeyiphi impembelelo kwimicimbi efanayo yomtshato wesini e-Ohio naseVirginia ngo-2012.
Ngayiphi na imeko, sinonyulo lukamongameli olunamazwe amane. Ngelixa u-Obama ehlala eyintandokazi, umba awukagqitywa. Ngamazwi ongasekhoyo, umsasazi ohloniphekileyo waseNew York Yankees, uMel Allen, siza kubona esiza kubona.
UAlan J. Steinberg usebenze njengoMlawuli weSithili we-2 EPA ngexesha lolawulo lowayesakuba nguMongameli uGeorge W. Bush. Ummandla wesi-2 we-EPA unamazwe aseNew York naseNew Jersey, iCommonwealth yasePuerto Rico, iiVirgin Islands zase-US, kunye nezizwe ezisibhozo ezaziwayo zaseIndiya. Phantsi kweRhuluneli yaseNew Jersey uChristie Whitman, usebenze njengoMlawuli oLawulayo weKhomishini yaseNew Jersey Meadowlands. Ngoku usebenza kwicandelo lezenzululwazi kwezopolitiko kwiYunivesithi yaseMonmouth.
